Why Do Jumps duplicate
October 7, 2014 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
for much longer. Some of the very best chasers end up as house hold names.
Sentiment aside though, you may have noticed that at some meetings there can be as many as 4 winning favourites in a day. Even worse this occasionally happens at two meetings.
So if you’re a regular layer, you should really be asking…
“What can I do to avoid laying these winning favourites?”
Very few punters know that favourites perform better in National Hunt racing than on the Flat
The burning question is why, and does that mean we can make a profit backing them?
Based on statistical research I will try to answer these questions objectively.
One thing that springs to mind is the lack of serious competition in certain races especially in non handicaps. Jumps’ racing is almost dominated by the same group of trainer’s year in year out. If you follow the code you will regularly see the likes of…
- Paul Nicholls
- Donald Mc Cain
- Alan King
- J.J.Oneill
- N.J.Henderson
- N.J.Twiston Davies
- David Pipe
- P.J.Hobbs
Near to, or at the top of the trainers table in the Racing Post. Some of these trainers fair better at certain tracks and in certain types of races, so an awareness of this can often help you avoid laying their horses when they start out as favourite under certain conditions.
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These types of races are usually competitive and the winner could come from any one of 3 or 4 horses, unlike Novice Hurdles where the favourites are generally very strong. Bear in mind though it does vary from course to course.
False-Favourites Pro-Tip:
Try to see every race as an island and judge each one on its own merits. But be aware of the bigger picture with regards to Non handicap favourites winning a high percentage of races and you won’t go far wrong.
Knowledge of the type of events you’re betting on will definitely give you an edge, so if you are laying in the wrong races to begin with, you really are disadvantaged even before those races are run.
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