Trends, Statistics And Betting Angles For CH4 Races (Saturday 28.4.2012)
May 4, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
The following betting advice, statistics and trends have been compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe (AJ-racing) and Jonathan Burgess. The aim is to provide you with key statistical trends to help you find profitable angles when betting on the televised races on CH 4 each Saturday. (Refer to our comments for potential bet strategies) We have also provided strategic bet placement advice.
Backing or Dutching
Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying! You can use this dutching calculator to work out your stakes here. Read our tutorial on how to use Dutching to make regular profits here
Odds & Liability When laying
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, Â if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds.
Start making a regular low risk monthly income, from FREE bookmaker bets NOW!
Saturday’s races at Newmarket
2:00 NWM Makfi Suffolk Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m1f CH4
SUFFOLK STAKES – Only run 7 times
ODDS
7/7 priced less than 12/1
FAVOURITES
1 winning favourite for a loss of -£0.50
TRAINER
7 different winners so no angle here, the best angle I can find is that Roger Charlton has had 4 runners with one winner and another placed
WEIGHT
7/7 have an OR of at least 87 with all winners rated with 20lbs of the top weight
LAST RACE
2 winners last raced at Newmarket from 13 runners with a further 2 placed
7/7 ran in a Class 2 or 3 race. 16 have come from a Class 1 race and lost (only 2 placed)
6/7 ran in a Handicap last time
OTHER FACTORS
5/7 had won one of their last 3 races
7/7 had either not run at today’s distance or had just the one try, those with more than 1 run are 0/28
6/7 had won in this class of race before
2:30 NWM Qatar Bloodstock Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f CH4
Jockey Club Stakes
ODDS
15/15 priced at 12/1 or less
FAVOURITE
7 favourites have won for a PROFIT of +£5.41
TRAINER
Sir Michael Stoute has had 3 winners from 12 runners with a further 3 placed. Back his runners each way
Andre Fabre has had 2 winners from just 5 runners. Back his runners
Henry Cecil has had 9 runners but has yet to have a winner, though 3 have placed. Each way possibilities for his runners
AGE
15/15 aged 4 or 5
LAST RACE
15/15 finished in the first 4 lat time out
12/15 started at odds of 6/1 or less of which 9 were favourites
Only 2 runners had there last race on the All Weather and both have been placed
3:10 NWM Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (204th Running) (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m CH4
2000 GUINEAS
ODDS
13/15 priced at 12/1 or less
FAVOURITE
Just 2 winning favourites for a loss of -£11.00
TRAINER
Aiden O’Brien has won the race 5 times from 30 runners (profit of +£6.50) with a further 2 placed. Each way possibilities for his runners
Sir Michael Stoute has won the race 3 times from 14 runners (none placed though) Back his runners
John Oxx has had just the 2 runners, 1 winner & the other placed too. Each way possibilities for his runners
Richard Hannon has had 21 runners but has yet to find the winner though 5 have placed. Each way possibilities for his runners
The Godolphin team (Suroor and Al Zarooni have had 29 runners with just the one winner and one placed horse.
Alternatively, you could place a dutch bet on the runners from – Aidan O’Brien, Michael Stoute and John Oxx
JOCKEY
Kieran Fallon has ridden the winner 4 times from 11 rides.
LAST RACE
6 winners last raced in Ireland from just 27 runners of which 4 winners last raced at the Curragh from 19 runners (4 more placed) & 2 winners ran at Leopardstown
12/15 started at odds of 4/1 or less last time out, in fact 9 started at 6/4 or less
10/15 raced in a Group 1, 2 or 3 race
OTHER FACTORS
11/15 had NOT run with the last 90 days from 130 runners 8%
4/15 had run at least once in the last 90 days from 140 runners 3%
5/15 were undefeated from 35 runners backing all these runners would have produced £2.50 profit
3:45 NWM Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f CH4
PALACE HOUSE STAKES
ODDS
14/15 priced 20/1 or less
FAVOURITES
4 winning favourites for a loss of -£5.74
TRAINER
2 wins each for
BRYAN SMART, ED McMAHON & HENRY CANDY from only 11 runners between them. Consider a Dutch bet for their runners
Dandy Nicholls has also had a winner from 11 runners but has had another 4 placed. Each way possibilities for is runners
AGE
14/15 aged 3 to 6 with 3 and 5 year olds having the best record with 5 wins each
LAST RACE
15/15 ran on turf last time, AW 0/12
6 winners last raced at Newmarket (Rowley)from 53 runners, another 7 placed
2 winners last raced at Thirsk from just 10 runners with another one placed
2 winners last raced at Ascot from 15 runners with another 2 placed
2 winners last raced at Newbury from 40 runners though with another 5 placed
14/15 last ran in a non handicap race, handicap races 1/40
9/15 won their last race from 52 runners, backing all would have produced a profit to SP of +£16.63
OTHER FACTORS
12/15 had won at least once in their last 3 runs
11/15 were either top rated or rated within 10lbs of the top one
14/15 had run either once or not at all in the last 90 days
Sunday`s races at Newmarket
2:35 NWM Qatar Bloodstock Dahlia Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f CH4
DAHLIA STAKES
ODDS
15/15 priced at 12/1 or less
FAVOURITES
5 winning favourites for a loss of -£8.12
TRAINER
Sir Michael Stoute has won the race 4 times from only 6 runners but no runners today
John Dunlop has had one winner from 5 runners but 2 more did place. Each way possibilities for his runners
LAST RACE
5 winners last raced at KEMPTON from 21 runners with a further 6 placed
2 winners last raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) from 27 runners with a further 8 placed
10 winners raced in either a Group 1 or Listed race last time from just 52 runners, compared to 4 winners from the other races from 53 runners
3:15 NWM Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 1m CH4
1000 GUINEAS
ODDS
15/15 priced less than 20/1
15/15 won by the first 7 in the market
FAVOURITES
5 winning favourites for a profit of +£4.83
TRAINERS
Watch out for the Godolphin runners
Saeed Bin Suroor 2 winners from 19 runners with a further 2 placed
Mahmood AL Zaroomi 1 winner from 1 runner
Henry Cecil 2 winners from 7 runners and another placed. Each way possibilities for his runners
Jim Bolger 1 winner from 6 but a further 3 PLACED. Each way possibilities for his runners
Those perhaps to avoid
Mick Channon 16 runners not one placed
Richard Hannon 14 runners with only 1 placed
Aiden O’Brien 22 runners and only 1 winner
Alternatively, place a Dutch bet on Mahmood al Zarooni, Saeed Bin Suroor, Henry Cecil and Jim Bolgers runners. If the odds dictate a profit can be made.
LAST RACE
9 winners last raced at Newmarket (either course) from 108 runners with a further 13 placed
3 winners last raced at Newbury from 45 runners with a further 2 placed
18 runners have come from the Curragh and all lost with only 2 placed
16 runners have come from the Ascot and all lost with only 2 placed
13/15 were priced at 6/1 or less
Those that raced at a distance of a mile or more last time out are 1/48
11/15 ran in a group race last time, runners from Group 1 or 2 are preferred
OTHER FACTORS
10 winners had not run this season from 127 runners
5 winners had run this season from 116 runners
PRETTY POLLY STAKES
ODDS
15/15 priced 8/1 or less
15/15 won by one of the first 4 in the betting market
FAVOURITES
8 winning favourites for a profit of +£6.59. favourites have a profitable record
OTHER FACTORS
15/15 finished either 1st or 2nd in one of their last 3 runs
15/15 had not run at the distance before
TRAINER
Godolphin (Surror & Al Zarooni) have won the race 3 times from just 6 runners with another placed. Back his runners
Ed Dunlop has won the race 3 times from just 5 runners with another placed. Definitely back Ed Dunlops runners
Alternatively, Place a dutch bet on the above trainers runners . If the odds are favourable enough to generate a profit
LAST RACE
2 winners last raced at YARMOUTH from only 2 runners
2 winners last raced at ASCOT from only 7 runners
4 winners came from either Newmarket track from 35 runners with a further 5 placed
Only 5 runners last raced in a Group 1 but produced 2 winners
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