Trends, Statistics And Betting Angles For CH4 Races (Saturday 21.4.2012)
April 20, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
The following betting advice, statistics and trends have been compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe (AJ-racing) and Jonathan Burgess. The aim is to provide you with key statistical trends to help you find profitable angles when betting on the televised races on CH 4 each Saturday. (Refer to our comments for potential bet strategies) We have also provided strategic bet placement advice.
Backing or Dutching
Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying! You can use this dutching calculator to work out your stakes here. Read our tutorial on how to use Dutching to make regular profits here
Odds & Liability When laying
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, Â if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds.
Start making a regular low risk monthly income, from FREE bookmaker bets NOW!
2:00 NEW Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y CH4
ODDS
14/15 priced at 12/1 or less
FAVOURITES
3 winning favourites for a loss of -£3.25
TRAINER
Mark Johnston has won the race twice from 7 runners
AGE
Majority of the winners aged 4,5 or 6 but also they have had the majority of the runners so no real angle
WEIGHT Â N/A
LAST RACE
5 winners last raced at Newbury from 27 runners (profit of +£12.50) with a further 4 placed
3 winners last raced at Doncaster from 28 runners (loss of -£5.75)  with a further 6 placed
11 last ran at Ascot with no winners and only one placed
4 winners last raced in a Group 1 race from just 16 runners for a profit of £14.25
OTHER FACTORS
14/15 had run in at least one Class 1 race before
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2:35 NEW Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f CH4
ODDS
13/15 priced at less than 8/1
FAVOURTIES
5 winning favourites for a loss of -£1.92
TRAINER
Mick Channon has won the race 4 times from 14 runners with one more placed
Richard Hannon has won the race 2 times from 18
Ralph Beckett has won the race 2 times from just 2 runners
LAST RACE
9 winners last raced at Newmarket from 49 runners with a further 11 placed
7 winners started their last race as favourite from 31 runners for a nice profit of +£22.58
OTHER FACTORS
15/15 had not run in the last 90 days
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3:10 NEW AON Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f CH4
ODDS
14/14 priced 8/1 or less
FAVOURITES
4 winning favourites for a loss of -£5.15
TRAINER
Richard Hannon has won the race 4 times (3 in the last 5 yrs) from 14 runners (profit of +£12.33) with a further 4 placed
AGE
LAST RACE
4 winners last raced at Newmarket from 16 runners with 3 more placed
3 winners last raced at Newbury from 17 runners with 5 more placed
2 winners last raced at the Curragh from just 3 runners and the other one placed
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3:45 NEW Berry Bros & Rudd Magnum Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4
ODDS
10/14 priced 12/1 or less
FAVOURITES
2 winning favourites for a loss of -£5.50
TRAINER – no angle
AGE
14/14 aged 4,5 or 6
WEIGHT
No top weight has won 17 have tried
LAST RACE
NO winners last raced in a CLASS 1 race – 21 have tried
OTHER FACTORS
14/14 had finished in the first 4 in at least one of their last 3 runs
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3:25 AYR Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase Grade 3 Cl1 4m110y CH4
ODDS
13/15 priced 20/1 or less
OVER 20/1 164 runners with 2 winners for a loss of -£63.00
FAVOURITES
2 winning favourites for a loss of -£9.50
TRAINER
Phillip Hobbs keeps hitting the post with 7 placed runners from 17 runners but no winner
Alan King also with 4 placed horses from 8 runners
Trainers based in Scotland have a poor record with just one winner from 42 runners
Nicky Henderson has sent 8 runners up and not one has placed
AGE no angle
WEIGHT
Top weights have a decent record with 3 winners (profit of +£18.50) and a further 4 placed
LAST RACE
15/15 started at odds of 20/1 or less
13/15 ran in a CLASS 2 or 3 race
14/15 ran over at least 3 miles last time out
14/15 ran in a handicap last time out
15/15 finished in the first 6 last time out
15/15 raced within the last 90 days
Our thoughts:
favourites have very poor record in this race in the last few years. With this in mind the following horses look worthy of either, backing each way or in DUTCH BET.
MERIGO e/w – ANY CURRENCYÂ e/w- IKORODU ROAD e/w, QUENTIN COLLONGES e/w
these bookies are paying out on five places for the Scottish Grand National… Boyle sports, Paddy Power
———-
2:15 AYR Arcadia Consulting William Dickie & Mary Robertson Future Champion Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f CH4
ODDS
14/15 priced less than 12/1
FAVOURITES
3 winning favourites for a loss of -£8.43
TRAINER
Paul Nicholls has had 15 runners with 2 wins and a further 8 placed
AGE no angle
WEIGHT NA
LAST RACE
7 winners last raced at Aintree from 23 runners (profit of +£20.63) with a further 3 placed
3 winners last raced at Cheltenham from 25 runners (loss of -£19.43) with a further 8 placed
15/15 ran in a Class 1,2 or 3
15/15 ran within the last 60 days
OTHER FACTORS
13/15 had won at least 2 chases
———-
2:50 AYR Isle of Skye Blended Whisky Scottish Champion Hurdle (Limited Handicap) Grade 2 Cl1 2m CH4
ODDS
10/15 priced at 4/1 or less
FAVOURITES
7 winning favourites for a profit of +£5.08
TRAINER
AGE no angle
LAST RACE
6 winners last raced at Aintree from 43 runners with a further 5 placed
3 winners last raced at Cheltenham from 34 runners a further 10placed
7 won their race last time out, 19 runners produce a profit of +£40.91(one winner priced at 40/1)However backing last time out winners priced at 4/1 or lower has produced 6 winners from 11 runners for a profit of +£7.91 so still decent
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