Taking On Last Time Out Winners (L.T.O.W)
February 25, 2011 by Jonathan
Filed under Horse Racing, Recent Articles
Bookies know the punting masses tend to over bet last time out winners (L.T.O.W) irrespective of there overall level of form consistency. The key to opposing these animals is to identify factors that are likely to make them vulnerable in their current race. To do that objectively you need to follow these steps…
- Look at one code of racing on any given day.
- Identify the races with last time out winners (Handicaps are best)
- Briefly assess what they beat last time out and ask the following questions…
Were the race conditions L.T.O the same as today’s race – Distance, Class, Going?
- Is the horse stepping up in class? Has it won in this class before?
- Are it rivals proven or unproven in this class?
What kind of horses did they beat L.T.O (previous winners or a field of mediocre horses with limited ability)
- If the selection only beat a field of mediocre horses with limited ability and is facing better class rivals proven under the race conditions, in its current race, then it will be vulnerable.
- If it beat a field containing one or two half decent previous winners and is now facing mediocre rivals un-proven under the race conditions, then don’t lay it
Does the horses form history clearly show it has a class barrier?
- Briefly scan the horses race history in the Racing Post to build up a mental picture of its overall ability/consistency. Has it ever won a race in this class?
- Does the level of competition in today’s race look much stronger than in the last race? Look for horses which have won or placed a close second, in the same or better class races.
Vulnerable L.T.O.W. Example 1:
Mayolynn is a classic example of horse that appeared to have an identifiable class barrier, i.e. since 2009 this horse had contested no less than five class 4 hurdle races (highlighted with a red dot below). Yet still failed to win, and the only race this animal had actually won was a class 5 handicap hurdle.
The result…
Conclusion
Mayolynn`s won a mediocre class 5 race last time out. In that race the animal only beat one previous winner and the rest of the field were only proven to have ability up to class 5 level. Mayolynn`s most recent race was a Class 4 handicap hurdle facing several rivals that had shown a better level of from in their respective races, i.e. LATERLY mainly raced in Cl2, EASTERN CLUMP mainly raced in CL4 and THUNDERSTORM mostly raced in CL4 races.
Vulnerable L.T.O.W. Example 2:
TARTAN SNOW was another example of horse which looked vulnerable, for several reasons: It was a pretty exposed 11 year old horse that had raced 32 times in its career. Even though its chase form could be considered consistent, i.e. 1 win, 1 second and 2 thirds, from 10 chases. The fact that this horse has been dropped from class Cl2 races down to CL4 races in the space of a year probably indicated that its connections decided it was beginning to decline in Class ability due to its age.
Tartan Snow faced a few less exposed younger rivals in its most recent race, i.e. PROSECCO a far less exposed chaser aged 9, mainly raced in Cl3. SHERIF HALL, again a far less exposed chaser aged 6 that looked to be improving and EARL GREYZ another consistent 6 year old chaser racing in class.
The result…
Conclusion
TARTAN SNOW won a mediocre uncompetitive class 4 race last time out. In that race the animal didn`t beat any previous winners and the rest of the field were only proven to have ability up to class 4 level.
TARTAN SNOWS most recent race was a Class 4 handicap chase facing several younger rivals that looked to be improving in their recent chases, i.e. PROSECCO was a far less exposed chaser aged 9, mainly raced in Cl3, SHERIF HALL was another less exposed chaser aged 6 that looked to be improving, and EARL GREYZ was also a consistent 6 year old chaser racing in class.
Just to prove this is no fluke – There were also two other last time out winners that lost on the same day.
Huntingdon 24.2.2011 – 4.10 SEE SAFRON
Huntingdon 24.2.2011 – 4.40 DECENT LORD
Race-Specialist Pro Tips
To assess and contextualize a horses last time out win simply follow these simple steps:
1. Click on the horses name on the FREE version of the Racing Post website (From its form history click on the L.T.O.W win in the “Race Outcome” column) This opens up the result page
2. On that result page click on each of the horse’s names it beat, and briefly make a mental note of their most recent race records (last 4 races will be adequate) . This will give you a comparison of the horses it beat L.T.O compared to the rivals it faces the current race. I call this process “Collateral Form Profiling”
Collateral Form Profiling – Is a simple but effective way of putting any previous wins into context with the race under assessment. This deadly effective method is taken from the Race-Specialist manual and is just one of the many profitable betting angles Pro bettors use to make regular profits from laying horses.
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