Punters Beware! Racing Season Change-over Can Hammer Profits

In this article we look at the transition from Jumps to Flat racing, which takes place every year at the end of March. And offer you some invaluable advice on how to approach this difficult period from a betting perspective.

The flat season officially begins in late March, on the day of the Lincoln handicap held at Doncaster. This key meeting signals the transition from the proper Winter Jumps season  to the beginning of the Flat Turf season, although it should be noted that jumps racing continues throughout the summer on a much smaller scale. The majority of National hunt trainers campaign their string of horses on much softer ground throughout the winter season, and as a rule of thumb,  this is when you will see the better quality jumps horses in numbers.

This seasonal change over period can throw up strange results that can confound bettors. In fact, it’s often worth taking a break after the Cheltenham Festival up until mid April. After that, serious bettors should prepare to focus their efforts on flat turf racing, or alternatively in other key areas of racing they are knowledgeable about, for example:

• focus on flat turf racing exclusively, limiting the number of race meetings assessed to no more than two per day
• focus on summer Jumps racing exclusively (relaxed approach with just a few meetings a week)
• focus on all-weather racing exclusively ( relaxed approach with just a few meetings a week)
• combine summer Jumps and All weather racing ( a suitable approach for those who aren`t keen on flat turf racing, but like regular action)

Flat Racing

Flat turf racing takes place in the UK between late March and early November on Turf. There is also all weather racing on the artificial surfaces at Lingfield, Southwell, Wolverhampton and Kempton all year round, although the main All Weather season starts in December and runs until March.

With the lighter evenings approaching there’s much more racing to look at, so it pays to specialize. Nobody can hope to look at up to 4 or even 5 race cards in day objectively.

Flat races are run over various distances from 5f sprints up to the maximum of 2 ¾ of a mile. However races at the maximum distance are uncommon. Mostly you’ll be assessing races between 5f to 1m6f.

The start of the flat season in late March can be a difficult time for favourite backers because there isn’t much recent form, if any to go on. Fitness has to be taken on trust, especially with debutant’s and hype horses turning out as favourites, simply because of there stables reputation.

In form horses, from in form trainers are the ones that win races. The statistics show that around 83% flat races are won by horses reappearing on the race course within 28 days of their previous race. If a horse hasn’t had a run for an extended period of time say over one month or more, we should consider that to be a negative for most.

Most horses will need a couple of runs before showing any potential within the current season. We can take advantage of this fact and lay these horses with some consistency early on.

Like all rules of thumb there are exceptions, and some horses can win after an extended break but they are infrequent. Usually these types come from certain stables, whose trainers can get one ready first time out. These horses are generally better class animals with a decent pedigree.

Having said that, we still need to look through any horses last few runs from the previous season and assess if it has performed well coming back from an extended break before?

Does the trainer have a reputation for getting his horses fit and ready early season? (Not many do, and debutant’s or horses that haven’t run for months – can be ripe for laying under the right circumstances; although there is still a need to establish a few solid reasons before opposing a well supported favourite.

Unfortunately we can’t really judge performance patterns in consistency terms, until horses have had a few runs in the current season. This in theory should make it easier to assess, and compare one horses documented abilities over another.

As the season progresses lighter evenings mean more racing to look at, so specialization is the key. There is also another important factor to consider into the calculations when assessing form, and that is the GOING, which means we have to ask an important question…

Can a change in going be bad for the layers? (Good-Firm)

It is well documented that favourites win around 30% of all races. Generally this bias in favor of the bookies and the shrewd layers, especially those who are prepared to learn more about the sport. However as we are dealing with animals of all ages, shapes and sizes; conditions within racing are always changing. Identifying what part these changes can have on the results can be of great advantage to us from a profit point of view.

for example…

In winter when the jumps season is in full swing the going is usually good-soft, getting heavier in the rainy months of January / February. Heavy going is good for the layers, especially when horses unproven in those conditions can be identified.

Conversely

In the summer months of the Flat season in – June, July and August the ground is generally good to firm, getting firmer as we have plenty of consecutive days without rain. Less rainfall means there will be less extreme going, and favourites can go in with regularity over the WARMER summer months, which the stats bear out.

It is at this particular time that the bookies bias is reversed to a point. The better quality horses start to emerge and the form in certain races tends to be more accurate. Smaller field sizes, combined with class horses means decent favourite win plenty of races.

It is not uncommon to see 3 or even 4 favourites win at a meeting on any given day.

Therefore layers need to tread carefully during this period, there are still plenty of lays to be had, but the sheer volume of racing means specialization pays. Just look at a couple of cards a day and eliminate those favourites that look to be strong form contenders, especially in small fields. Remember if in doubt move on to a race which has either a weak looking favourite, or a race that looks very competitive.

Read our essential guide to flat racing here

What NOW!

We hope this article helps to make you aware of this difficult transitional period in racing, which takes place every year around this time. With with this in mind, you should either consider a watching brief, or selectively get stuck into laying hyped up debutant’s, and horses making their seasonal debut who are likely to need a race or two to bring on their fitness.

As always, use form reading and trainer analysis to check out who’s hot and who’s not at the start of the flat season. Some trainers have a good record with their debutant’s and early-season runners, whilst others take a more patient approach. Identifying which is which can pay handsomely in the first few weeks of the flat turf season.And lastly when laying make sure to obtain value – we never lay anything over 4.00 on the betting exchanges, but as a general rule try to obtain 3.5 and below.

We would love to hear your thoughts and ideas? Please feel free to leave feedback using the “Speak Your Mind” section provided below this article?

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