Why Out Classed Horses Make Great Lays, And How to Identify Them

Race horses are raised and lowered in class all the time. In this tutorial we will look at what factors determine a horses true chances of winning when competing in a higher or lower grade

All races in the UK are run in different categories defined by class. Class should be considered as the most important form factor. If a horse has a decent class advantage over its rivals that can often outweigh other factors. The class structure for National Hunt racing is as follows. 

• CLASS 1 > Grade 1, Grade 2, Grade 3, Listed.
• CLASS 2 > H`CAPS 0-140+
• CLASS 3 > 0-115/135
• CLASS 4 > 0-100/115
• CLASS 5 > 0- 85/100
• CLASS 6 > Hunters chase and National Hunt Flat races

Class 1 races are contested by the very best horses in training, and the prize money can be large, anything from £20,000 up to £400,000. These top class horses are generally consistent, even though the races they contest are extremely competitive. Their form has a higher value than in the lower classes.

Moving downwards in the class scale the prize money decreases, as do the quality of the horses, and the level of form can be inconsistent.

A horses form is directly related to the class of races it’s been contesting. Therefore it is very important that form readers evaluate class carefully, putting a horses form into context.

To do this effectively you need to look at a horses race history, assessing where it placed and in what grade compared to its current race. Usually horses will have shown some ability or potential to compete in the class of today’s race, or the trainer would not have entered it (unless he is prompted by an overoptimistic owner) All things considered, the fact still remains if a horse is stepping up in class it will generally face better opposition than in its previous races and maybe vulnerable.

Sometimes horses are favourite because of top jockey/trainer combination, and their winning chances are often over estimated by Joe public, thus making them good value lays because they are artificially short in the betting forecast.

Some races are just too competitive and all the favourites main rivals may have equal class, ability and form. This situation often occurs in handicaps where all the runners form is exposed.

We can appreciate everybody has different levels of experience when it comes to form reading, so with this in mind we have devised a simple set of principles It can be applied when assessing races.

Horses stepping up in class

Need to progress significantly to win against rivals proven in that class. Horse’s being stepped up by one class need improvement if they are to stand a chance of winning. If stepping up by two classes their chances are slim indeed. Although it should be noted that it`s not quite that straightforward. Because of the way the UK handicap system works horses that won last time out are often stepped up in class. Many of these animals go on to lose, especially those that are encountering a new class for the first time.

Conversely, horses that have shown a good level of form in more than one grade are less vulnerable. In fact they may have won and placed in two or three grades.

Horses stepping down in class

In theory horses stepping down in class should only need to repeat their superior form in the better class to win. However these types must be proven in the higher class to stand a chance, as Trainers are known to drop horses in class because they no longer retain ability. If a horse doesn’t have proven form then it can’t be taken for granted that it will do better against lesser opposition. Horses which didn’t achieve a place in their last few races often fit this type.

There are three main reasons why a horse would be lowered in class:

1. It was outclassed in a higher-grade last time out
2. It is declining in ability (older horses usually fit this profile)
3. It’s handicap mark has been lowered due to poor recent form

Horses racing in the same class

In theory will only have to repeat their best form, or improve slightly if they are to stand a chance of winning. It all really depends on the quality of the opposition they face.

Conclusion

Layers should be looking for horses which are:

• Stepping up in class for the first time, facing opposition that has been proven effective in that class
• Horses that have a history of performing badly in the class of the race under assessment

As with any betting approach you should always carefully assess what the competition looks like. This is an area where a lot of punters get caught out, because they tend to lay horses based solely around their selections weaknesses, instead of looking at the strength of the opposition.

Key areas to look at are:

• Horses that maybe stepping down in grade that could pose a potential threat to your lay selection.
• Consistent horses from less fashionable stables, racing in a class, facing unproven hype horse from fashionable stables (false-favourites)
• Identifying two or more credible threats to your lay selection in each race (horses that have won or placed in the current class or better)
• Be wary of non-runners, especially if they were identified as the main threats to your lay selection (consider these no bet races)

Remember horses…

Can be stepped up, lowered down or raced in the same class. You need to find out this information before making any judgments.

Take YOUR Betting to the next level

There are no magic wands, hidden tricks, or secret handshakes that can bring you immediate success in the betting world, but with the help of this book you can get there. Written by a Betfair accredited trainer on creating and profiting from lay betting, false favourites carefully sets out the steps you need to follow to create regular profits from Betting.

From choosing the right races to placing your first bet on exchanges, you’ll find out what really works.

Resources

For more pro-tips tips on form reading,  Download our comprehensive betting guides.

And if you’d like to share your experiences and tips on from reading using any of the following Racing Post, Timeform or Sporting life take the floor and post a comment in the form below. They’re always welcome.

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