Thursday, October 1st, 2020

How To Calculate Strike Rates and Losing Runs In Betting

August 14, 2012 by  
Filed under Money Management, Recent Articles

The betting methods you follow not only reflect your performance, but also determine  your profits. Therefore, to succeed you must carefully consider losing runs and take positive steps to minimise the impact they can have on your betting bank.

Losing runs are the hardest thing for punters to take. Unfortunately they are an inevitable part of all sports betting, and in order to make a long-term profit you must learn to accept them.

Because sports betting is affected by random factors we have no control over, losing runs can occur at any stage. If you prepare yourself mentally and mathematically then plenty can be done to eliminate the negative impact these patterns can have on you both emotionally and financially.

As we have discussed in previous articles psychology plays a key role in whether your betting is successful or not. Therefore losing runs can affect your confidence if you’re not prepared emotionally.

Losing run prediction tools

To help put things in perspective we can use prediction tools professional bettors use to estimate the likelihood of a losing run and its length in terms of bets.

First of all you need to work out the Median (average) odds of winners compared with the strike rate.

Then take a look at your betting bank and assess if you have enough money to cover the losing runs.

You can use the table below to calculate losing runs centred on strike rate. As you can see, the higher the strike rate is the lower sequence of consecutive losers is.

Strike Rate (%) Maximum Losing Run
5                                135
10                              66
15                              43
20                              31
25                              24
30                              19
35                              16
40                              14
45                              12
50                              10
55                              9
60                              8
65                              7
70                              6
75                              5
80                              4
85                              4
90                              3
95                              2

Once you have worked out the strike rate of your chosen betting system the table above will help you determine the maximum number of losers your bank would take before going broke.

It’s important to then assign a percentage to each bet. To illustrate the point take a look at the following example:

Using a betting system with a strike rate of 50% will encounter a losing run of 10 successive bets (100%/10= 10%) therefore if we allocated 10% of our betting bank to each bet the bank would be broke when encountering the first losing run of 10 consecutive bets.

Obviously this is no good, so we recommend using between 1- 2% of your betting bank for each bet. Doing this will ensure that your betting bank grows slowly, remains intact and provides you with emotional stability, which is the essential ingredient for profitable long-term betting.

It’s important to know that different rules apply when using the table on backing and Laying systems.

Backing systems – apply percentage to the stake

laying systems – apply percentage to the liability of the bet

Read more about probability and gambling mathematics here

Summary

Once you`ve determined the strike rate of your betting system you can use the table above to establish the potential losing runs.

Resources

The Staking Machine can calculate losing runs, provides 23 back stake plans and 16 lay staking plans. At the touch of a button TSM can display ROI, profit, winning and losing patterns. The screen shot below is taken from the Staking Machine, showing detailed betting calculations the software can perform in seconds.

You can test all 39 staking plans on any betting system, so you can see what the future performance is likely to be. This fantastic feature will stop you wasting time and money betting on systems that will never make profit.

Don’t just take our word for it, take a free trial and put the staking machine to the test today!

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club Which cost just 24 pence a day. You can also connect with him on Facebook and Twitter


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