Handicaps versus non Handicaps

A different approach

Horse racing is a wash with facts, statistics and worst of all media hype. In part this is why so many people place ill informed bets based around urban myths and media hype, such as: only backing top jockeys or  following trainers blindly.  Betting shop punters are especially guilty of this kind of behaviour because they are generally lazy and simply want to experience the buzz of watching live races they have bet on.

To be fair a lot of punters like to place what are commonly known by the bookies as “Fun bets” at the weekend. Personally I fail to see the fun in losing regular cash, but everyone is entitled to do as they wish with their own money. However, “False-Favourites blog” readers should be much more savvy than that. I can appreciate that not everyone will be totally dedicated to betting, but what you should undertsand is that…

“In order to improve your chances of winning you must arm yourself with essential racing information before placing a bet”

Hopefully this brief introduction to the key differences between handicap and non handicaps should give you a better understanding of how these races are made up, as on the whole the punting masses don’t take the time to consider how or why a horse is handicapped. For that reason different rules apply when assessing these two distinctly different types of race. To clarify the point lets take a look at the main differences  to help you compare the two objectively…

Non handicap races

Are usually contested by young unexposed horses which are likely to be improving with each race. The win percentages for favourites are generally high, especially in National Hunt races such as, novice hurdles and novice chases (Read my informative guide to National Hunt racing here) The quality and breeding of the horses at the top end of the market on the whole is very good.

Assessing races can be easier because the form of each runner is by and large less exposed and therefore more straight forward. The betting forecast is often headed by two or three horses taking up to as much 80% of the book. Over the years this has proven to be an accurate reflection of each horse chances, with strong favourites winning daily at short odds.

Handicap races

Are contested by exposed older horses, which generally fit one of the following characteristics:

• Appear to confirm ability. Form history clearly shows what these horses have achieved in the past, but they have now reached a handicap mark which is static and these types probably need to have there official rating lowered to become competitive again.

• Appear to be progressing in ability. Usually less exposed types entering into the handicap arena which have the scope to defy weight and revised handicap marks, especially when racing against exposed horses handicapped to their limit

• Appear to be declining in ability – due to stepping up through the class system. If a horses official rating is too high it will struggle to win a competitive handicap. Often those considered up against it are referred to in the racing media as being on an unfavourable mark. These types usually need to be dropped in class to win again.

Basically handicaps are about pitching horse against each other that have similar ability. Therefore these races are much more competitive than non-handicaps and it’s not uncommon for the top four or five horses to each have an equal chance of winning. The weight each horse carries can make race analysis tricky, but the actual affect that weight has on a horse’s performance is very often over exaggerated by the racing media and is rarely an issue.

When assessing handicaps it’s a good idea to weigh up how each horse has performed off various ratings under similar race conditions to the current race. Look to see if any of the top rated horses have won off a similar rating to their current one, or do they need to be dropped back in the ratings to a more realistic level to get competitive again. To do this look at each horses RPR (racing post rating) in its form history.

“See if you can identify which horses look to be up against it in rating terms”

Certain horses may have reached a level at which they are non effective at, and will only return to winning ways after re assessment. For example if a horses official rating is increased because it’s been winning., it will probably have to step up in class as well, this is when they can be vulnerable. It’s not the extra weight that beats the horse, it’s the fact that it’s competing against better class animals.

Obviously in handicaps the top weights win more races. From a laying betting perspective its better to take the approach of a race specialist and consider taking horses on, competing in races where the Rating difference between the top four or five horses is very close, e.g. only a few pounds between them.

“Be wary of laying any horse which is clearly top rated compared to the rest of the field”

Loosely factor weight into your calculations, but don’t over exaggerate it. Race horses can weigh 1000lbs + and are very physically powerful, therefore can defy a few led weights placed in the saddle quite easily. To put it in perspective. Think along the lines of working horses in history – pulling, barges, carts, ploughs etc.

For a more in depth explanation of how handicapping works in UK horse racing make sure to read “Handicap ratings explained”

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Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2010 Jonathan Burgess