Free Betting Tips, Racing Trends & Statistics For (Saturday 17.11.2012) TV Races

Our FREE horse racing tips, betting advice, statistics and Trainer Trends have been compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe (AJ-racing). The aim is to provide you with key statistical trends to help you find profitable angles when betting on the televised races  each Saturday.

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TV race trends and tips for Saturday 17.11.2012

2:35	CHE	Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 Cl1 2m4f110y CH4

PADDY POWER GC

ODDS

11/15 12/1 or less

10/15 from the first 3 in the betting

FAVOURITES

6 winning favourites for a decent profit of +£14.25

TRAINER

14/15 won by a English based trainer

Martin & David Pipe have won the race 7 times from 30 runners with another 4 placed

Paul Nicholls has yet to have the winner from 23 runners though 5 have placed

Nicky Henderson has only won the race once from 15 runners but has had another 5 placed

AGE

15/15 aged 5 to 9

9/15 aged 6 or 7

WEIGHT/OR

15/15 rated 154 or less

10/15 carried 10-13 or less

LAST RACE

6 winners last raced at Cheltenham from 55 runners with another 9 placed

3 winners last raced at Carlisle with another 1 placed

3 winners last raced at Aintree from 39 runners with another 4 placed

15/15 started at odds of 12/1 or less

14/15 raced at a distance of 2 miles 4 furlongs or more

12/15 started at odds of 4/1 or less

10/15 finished in the first 2

0 winners raced 21 to 120 days ago, 7 winners last raced with 20 days & 8 over 181 days

OTHER FACTORS

14/15 had run at the Cheltenham before

11/15 had won at Cheltenham before

11/15 had won 2 or 3 times over fences

SUMMARY

The first big National Hunt trends handicap race of the season to get stuck into and the first place to look at is the horse’s last run.  Odds of less than 12/1 in that race are good but less than 4/1 narrows it down further, with the race also being over 2 miles 4 furlongs, preferably run at Cheltenham, Aintree or Carlisle.

No horse has won off a mark higher than 154 but the race is getting better in class, so I would perhaps raise that a few pounds this year as this year 9 of the horses are rated above 150 compared to 12 in the last 3 years so a significant increase in the quality of runner this year.  However I would be looking for a horse with course run and preferably a course win.

Grands Crus trained by David Pipe heads the market and is a worthy favourite, I would expect him to be in the mix but at the prices I will be looking to take him on with something else come the day.   It might even be a grey day with the likes of Al Ferof, Divers & Walkon in the mix too.

 

 

1:55	CHE	Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase Grade 3 Cl1 3m3f110y CH4

HENRIETTA KNIGHT HANDICAP CHASE

ODDS

12/12 priced 12/1 or less

10/12 from the first 4 in the betting

FAVOURITES

3 winning favourites for a profit of +£1.00

TRAINERS

Not much to go on though Philip Hobbs has had 10 runners ant not even had a place

Jonjo O’Neill has had just the 3 runners and had 1 winner and a place

WEIGHT/OR

12/12 rated 150 or less

NO top weight has won

AGE

11/12 aged 5 to 9

LAST RACE

12/12 ran over at least 3 miles

11/12 ran in a handicap

NO winners came form a Grade 1 or 2 race from 26 runners though 6 did place

OTHER FACTORS

12/12 had either run once or not at all in the last 90 days

9/12 had finished in the 1^st two in at least 1 of their last 3 runs

SUMMARY

A race where we should be looking for a horse that is 12/1 or less, that last raced in a handicap over at least 3 miles which was either within the last 20 days or after a break of 180 days and is aged 5 to 9

 

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