Free Betting Tips, Racing Trends & Statistics For (Saturday 14.9.2013)
September 13, 2013 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
Our FREE horse racing tips, betting advice, statistics and Trainer Trends have been compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe (AJ-racing). The aim is to provide you with key statistical trends to help you find profitable angles when betting on the televised races each Saturday.
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TV raced trends for Saturday 14.9.2013
Please note we will be posting selections which fit the trends below on Saturday morning before the races.
| 3:50 | DON | Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m6f132y CH4 |
|---|
ST LEGER
ODDS
13/16 priced 8/1 or less but 3 from last 4 were above this
10/16 from the first 2 in the market
TRAINER
Saeed Bin Suroor has won the race 4 times from just 10 runners with another 2 placed
John Gosden has won the race 3 times from 8 runners with another 1 placed
Aiden O’Brien has won the race 3 times from 29 runners with another 5 placed
LAST RACE
9 winners last raced at York from 66 runners with another 17 placed
5 winners last raced at Goodwood from 27 runners with another 3 placed
16/16 finished first or were beaten by 5 lengths or less with all 16 finishing in the top 4
16/16 raced over 1m 4f or 1m 5f
16/16 did not race in a handicap
15/16 raced in a group 2 or 3 (25 have come from a Group 1 and only one has won, 8 more placed)
OTHER FACTORS
16/16 had at least one top 2 finish in their last 3 runs
16/16 had raced 1 to 3 times in the last 90 days
SUMMARY
I would normally say concentrate on horses 8/1 or less but 3 out of the last 4 have been at higher prices so we’ll leave this one out for now. So we should be looking for a horses that has
Raced 1 to 3 times in last 90 days
Had a top 2 finish in at least one of their last 3 runs
Last raced over 1m 4f or 1m 5f in a Group 2 or 3 race and either won or was beaten by less than 5 lengths.
Over the years this has produced
|
Bets |
Wins |
WinStrike |
SP_PL |
Places |
PlaceStrike |
Races |
RaceStrike |
ROI |
BF_Back |
BF_Lay |
|
44 |
15 |
34.09% |
67.26 |
27 |
61.36% |
16 |
93.75% |
152.86% |
68.17 |
-79.97 |
If we have quite a few qualifiers look closely at horses that had their last race Goodwood or York and take note of horses trained by Gosden or Bin Suroor.
Our Trends Expert (Jon Sutcliffe`s) advice on the St Ledger –
2 qualifiers tomorrow for the St Leger –
Excess Knowledge
Foundry.
Excess Knowledge raced at Goodwood last time & Foundry at York so no advantage there. John Gosden has a fine record in this race so marginal preference is for Excess Knowledge but a dutch bet might be more sensible as O’Brien also likes to win this race but just throws a few more runners at it.
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