Cheltenham Festival Day 3 – Thursday 17th March

My Day 3  Cheltenham review is based around long term festival trends and statistics. The key emphasis will be on laying favourites in races where the stats indicate favourites have a poor long-term record.

Remember I will be posting the latest tips and advice  for the following days races on the false favourites blog home page each evening of the Cheltenham festival around 7.00pm.

2.05 The Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

The faq`s

The Favourites don’t do particularly well in this race. Only 2 favourites have won in the last 15 years.

• 5 year-olds have a poor record with just 1 winner in 36 years.
• The last 5 winners were aged 7 +.
• Only 2 favourites have won  in the last 16 years .
• The last 7 winners were all 10/1 and above

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

Year	Horse	Age	Trainer	Odds
2010	Buena Vista	9	D E Pipe	16/1
2009	Kayf Aramis	7	Miss V Williams	16/1
2008	Ballyfitz	8	N A Twiston-Davies	18/1
2007	Oscar Park	8	D W P Arbuthnot	14/1
2006	Kadoun	9	M J P O’Brien	50/1
2005	Oulart	6	D T Hughes	10/1
2004	Creon	9	J O’Neill	50/1
2003	Inching Closer	6	J O’Neill	6/1F
2002	Freetown	6	L Lungo	20/1
2000	Rubhahunish	9	N A Twiston-Davies	8/1
1999	Generosa	6	J L Hassett	12/1
1998	Unsinkable Boxer	9	M C Pipe	5/2
1997	Pharanear	7	D Nicholson	14/1
1996	Great Easeby	6	W Storey	7/1
1995	Miracle Man	7	C Weedon	9/2F
1994	Tindari	6	J M Jefferson	20/1
1993	Fissure Seal	7	H de Bromhead	14/1
1992	My View	8	M Purcell	33/1
1991	Danny Connors	7	J O’Neill	9/1
1990	Henry Mann	7	S Christian	20/1
1989	Rogers Princess	7	M Tate	8/1JF

Bet advice

Lay the favourite

Odds & Liability

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this  here`s a tutorial

Staking & Bet execution

No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until the market has formed properly, (usually by mid morning on each day of the races), although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play asking for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.

Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

4.00 The Byrne Group Plate

The faq`s

Again Favourites don`t do particularly well in this race. Just 1 favourite has won since 1981

• Horse bred in France have won 6 of the lat 11 runnings of this race and (placed 2nd in the other 5)
• Only 1 winning favourite since 1981
• An Irish trained horse hasen`t won this race sincewinner since 1951.
• Martin Pipe won this race 1999-2003 with his son David also winning it in 2010 – Venetia Williams N.J.Henderson are other trainers to note
• Horses which have run at the festival before dominate – with 17 out of the last 19 winers doing so

Year	Horse	Age	Trainer	Odds
2010	Great Endeavour	6	D E Pipe	18/1
2009	Something Wells	8	Miss V Williams	33/1
2008	Mister McGoldrick	11	Mrs S J Smith	66/1
2007	Idole First	8	Miss V Williams	12/1
2006	Non So	8	N J Henderson	14/1
2005	Liberthine	6	N J Henderson	25/1
2004	Tikram	7	G Moore	12/1
2003	Young Spartacus	10	H D Daly	16/1
2002	Blowing Wind	9	M C Pipe	25/1
2000	Dark Stranger	9	M C Pipe	14/1
1999	Majadou	5	M C Pipe	7/4F
1998	Super Coin	10	R Lee	7/1
1997	Terao	11	M C Pipe	20/1
1996	Old Bridge	8	A Turnell	14/1
1995	Kadi	6	D Nicholson	11/2
1994	Elfast	11	J Webber	8/1

Bet advice

Lay the favourite

Odds & Liability

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often get  avalue lay on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this  here`s a tutorial

Staking & Bet execution

No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until te market has formed properly, usually by mid morning on each day the races, although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play ask for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.

Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queuing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in-play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

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