Cheltenham Festival Day 2 – Wednesday 16th March

My assessment of Day 2 is based around long term festival trends and statistics. The key emphasis will be on laying favourites in races where the stats indicate favourites have a p00r long-term record.

Remember I will be posting the latest tips and advice  for the following days races on the false favourites blog home page each evening of the Cheltenham festival around 7.00pm.

1.30 The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur riders)

The faq`s

Favourites have an abysmal record in this race. Only 3 favourites have won in the last 21 years.  This race is difficult to predict accurately becuase its contested by amatuer riders and most of the horse are unproven at the distnace (a grueling test at 4miles plus)

• No winning favourite since 1992 – And only 3 favourits have ever won this race in 2004- 1992 -1989
• Jonjo O’Neill has won this race in – 2007, 2004, 2003, 2002 and 1995
• Paul Nicholls has a very poor record in this race – 1 placed horse from 13 starters

Year	Horse	Age	Trainer	Odds
2010	Poker De Sivola	7	F Murphy	14/1
2009	Tricky Trickster	6	N A Twiston-Davies	11/1
2008	Old Benny	7	A King	9/1
2007	Butler´s Cabin	7	J O´Neill	33/1
2006	Hot Weld	7	F Murphy	33/1
2005	Another Rum	7	I A Duncan	40/1
2004	Native Emperor	8	J O’Neill	5/1JF
2003	Sudden Shock	8	J O’Neill	25/1
2002	Rith Dubh	10	J O’Neill	10/1
2000	Relaxation	8	H D Daly	8/1
1999	Deejaydee	7	M Hourigan	13/2
1998	Wandering Light	9	T A Forster	10/1
1997	Flimsy Truth	11	M H Weston	33/1
1996	Loving Around	8	E J O’Grady	10/1
1995	Front Line	8	J O’Neill	7/1
1994	Christmas Gorse	8	N A Gaselee	14/1
1993	Ushers Island	7	J H Johnson	15/2
1992	Keep Talking	7	T Thomson Jones	5/2F
1991	Smooth Escort	7	Mrs D Haine	7/1
1990	Topsham Bay	7	D H Barons	40/1
1989	Boraceva	6	G B Balding	4/1F

Bet advice

Take on the favourite

Odds & Liability

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this  here`s a tutorial

Staking & Bet execution

No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until the market has formed properly, (usually by mid morning on each day of the races), although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play asking for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.

Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle)

Only two favourites have ever won this race 2003 & 1993 making it a truely competitive event, likely to be won by a decent priced outsiders

• Only 2 favourites have won from the 17 years
• No winner rated higher than 147.

Year	Horse	Age	Trainer	Odds
2010	Spirit River	5	N J Henderson	14/1
2009	Ninetieth Minute	6	T J Taaffe	14/1
2008	Naiad Du Misselot	7	F Murphy	7/1
2007	Burntoakboy	9	Dr R D P Newland	10/1
2006	Sky´s The Limit	5	E J O´Grady	11/1
2005	Idole First	6	Miss V Williams	33/1
2004	Monkerhostin	7	P J Hobbs	13/2
2003	Xenophon	7	A J Martin	4/1F
2002	Ilnamar	6	M C Pipe	25/1
2000	What’s Up Boys	6	P J Hobbs	33/1
1999	Khayrawani	7	C Roche	16/1
1998	Top Cees	8	Mrs J Ramsden	11/1
1997	Big Strand	8	M C Pipe	16/1
1996	Trainglot	9	J G Fitzgerald	11/2
1995	Chance Coffey	10	P F O’Donnell	11/1
1994	Time For A Run	7	E J O’Grady	11/1
1993	Olympian	6	M Pipe	4/1JF

The faq`s

Again Favourites don`t do particularly well in this race.

• Only 2 winning favourites since 1992, with the last 20 winners started at no bigger than 11/1.
• 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles.
• 5 of the last 10 winners (Tiutchev, Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop, My Way De Solzen and Tidal Bay) entered the race as the highest-rated hurdler in the line up.

Bet advice

Take on the favourite

Odds & Liability

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often get  avalue lay on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this  here`s a tutorial

Staking & Bet execution

No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until te market has formed properly, usually by mid morning on each day the races, although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play ask for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.

Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on quing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in-play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

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