Thursday, November 14th, 2024

Can you really make a profit backing A.P. McCoy?

September 24, 2010 by  
Filed under Essential Reading, Horse Racing, Recent Articles

The following extremely useful article has been submitted by one of Betfair`s respected sports  Journalists – Paul Moon. I`m sure you`ll all agree the statistical approach Paul talks about can lead to some of the most profitable angles when betting.

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Horseracing is an entity consumed by statistics inextricably woven into the fabric of the sport in an historical integration.  When you add opinions that range from one extreme to another the unravelling becomes almost impossible but sometimes within the confusion there is an angle to exploit!

We all use statistics to aid our decision-making processes but especially when faced with complex situations.  Here are a few quotations that have amused and accompanied my life:

  • Torture numbers, and they’ll confess to anything – Gregg Easterbrook.
  • 98% of all statistics are made up – Author Unknown
  • Statistics are like bikinis.  What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital – Aaron Levenstein
  • Statistics can be made to prove anything, even the truth – Author Unknown

A P McCoy is the greatest jockey in National Hunt history.  So far this season he has ridden 88 winners from 341 rides with a massive strike rate of 26%.  The maths also tells us that he has ridden 253 losers and had we backed all his rides we would be losing £70.80 to a £ level stake.

He is an anomaly in that he has an abnormal affect on the betting market where the zombie masses follow him lemming like.  Clearly his mounts are over-bet and there is little value in backing him.  Why would one ever back him knowing that you are procuring a price curtailed?  Giving a bookmaker an extra commission on top of his overround is tantamount to stupidity!

To gain perspective here is an amalgamation of six of our top jockeys:

Jockey Wins Rides Strike Rate Loss to £1 stake
1 A P McCoy 88 341 26% £70.80
2 Richard Johnson 63 274 23% £10.03
3 Jason Maguire 22 123 18% £28.96
4 Tom Scudamore 24 216 11% £99.84
5 Graham Lee 24 160 15% £14.50
6 Paddy Brennan 24 130 18% £7.33
Totals 245 1244 20% £231.46

From 1244 rides our best jockeys have won 245 times with a strike rate of less than 20%.  To date they have ridden 999 losers.  Obviously there was many occasions where these jockeys raced against each other in the same race directly affecting the statistics but one imagines there is a piece of software somewhere utilising these figures.

A P McCoy will soon be riding a better class of horse as the National Hunt Jump season gathers momentum before clicking into full swing so how will that affect the statistics?  The answer is disturbingly simple – punters will lose even more money!  Take a look at his record over the last five years:

Year Winners Strike Rate Loss
2009/10 195 22% £138.67
2008/09 186 22% £78.29
2007/08 140 22% £129.95
2006/07 184 24% £122.15
2005/06 178 21% £137.57
Totals 883 22% £606.63

At the moment A P McCoy’s strike rate is artificially high and now is a great time to lay his horses.  Using the grid as a reliable guide losses will be sustained between £78.29 and £138.67 to a £ level stake resulting a profit between £7.49 to £67.87.  Clearly our greatest jump jockey creates wealth for bookmakers and for those that like to lay bets there is little risk of big priced winners.

Just one more statistic, here is the five-year record of Tom Scudamore:

Year Winners Strike Rate Loss
2009/10 73 13% £71.69
2008/09 62 11% £238.48
2007/08 51 9% £220.74
2006/07 59 10% £264.83
2005/06 35 7% £253.72
Totals 280 10% £1,049.46

To recap Scudamore has ridden 24 winners at an 11% strike rate losing £99.84 to a £ stake so far this season.  What are the statistics telling you, will he build on last season or revert?  Should he revert there is over £120 profit for that £1 stake waiting to be claimed!

Looking at the figures above one is struck by the continuation.  If one imagines putting a £1,000 in a Building Society what would the interest be compared to laying each of McCoys mounts from now to the end of the season?  Just laying his horses to a £10 stake will almost certainly return a profit of between £75 to £700.

And finally folks can I leave this thought with you?  The average human has one breast and one testicle – Des McHale.  Now that is a statistic it is hard to disagree with!

Paul Moon

  Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2010 Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club. You can contact him here


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Comments

One Response to “Can you really make a profit backing A.P. McCoy?”
  1. jay says:

    Would like to see or know how to find the following A.P. STATS.

    1. Strike rate when riding for for D.Pipe also other trainers.
    2. Strike rate in Sellers.
    3. Strike rate for 1st race on the card only. and i suppose 1st ride of the day.

    Maybe not possible for no 3. but the others may make interesting reading.

    Enjoying your mail angles etc, although this is the first time.

    Many thanks J

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