Can you make a profit backing quick returners on the All Weather tracks?

Well folks its that time of year again – freezing with plenty of snow. Ultimately this means Turf racing in the UK is abandoned.  It can be frustrating when this happens, but from a personal point of view I feel its a good idea to take a break from betting every now and then, as it can help to re-focus the mind and give us an opportunity to look at some other profitable angles. Over the next few weeks lots of punters will be looking to have a bet on the All Weather, due to lack of turf action. Unfortunately most are unaware that a different tac is required when betting on sand and…

Applying a one size fits all approach to any form of betting is pure folly!

Instead, you need to specialise in certain sub categories of horse racing at specific times during the season. The best racing methods are based around finding angles of attack which suit a particular type of horse at a specific time of the year. Any method or system which tries to standardise these variants will ultimately fail.

With this in mind – David Peat of www.horseprofiles.co.uk has uncovered some profitable angles to help you make informed decisions when betting at the UK`s All Weather tracks. Learn to make your betting pay by becoming a race-specialist

QUICK RETURNERS ON THE ALL WEATHER

I have often wondered if the All Weather could be a profitable medium for backing horses and in this first article I will be looking at which trainers are adept at bringing their horses out quickly to win a race

Firstly here is a list of trainers with a 20% strike rate or higher

Trainer	Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike
Prescott, Sir Mark	22	11	50%	-5.58	17	77%
Evans, Ms Deborah J	13	6	46%	16.01	7	54%
Baker, George	10	4	40%	3.10	7	70%
Hannon, R	16	6	38%	18.25	10	63%
Williams, S C	37	12	32%	3.24	19	51%
West, Miss Sheena	10	3	30%	2.75	6	60%
Attwater, M J	14	4	29%	7.33	7	50%
Usher, M D I	18	5	28%	12.63	7	39%
Ellison, B	11	3	27%	13.50	6	55%
Barron, T D	30	8	27%	0.62	13	43%
Muir, W R	12	3	25%	-2.26	8	67%
Hiatt, P W	51	12	24%	14.58	19	37%
Ryan, K A	30	7	23%	-4.13	13	43%
Jenkins, J R	13	3	23%	4.00	4	31%
Ingram, R	13	3	23%	1.63	5	38%
Margarson, G G	14	3	21%	8.10	6	43%
Osborne, J A	14	3	21%	-5.93	5	36%
Wigham, M	33	7	21%	-13.14	17	52%
Blockley, P A	61	12	20%	3.96	27	44%

At the other end of the scale are trainers who are yet to have a winner when returning a horse quickly to the track

Chapman, M C	27	0	0%	-27.00	5	19%
Burchell, D	14	0	0%	-14.00	5	36%
Ryan, J	11	0	0%	-11.00	3	27%
Williams, Ian	12	0	0%	-12.00	4	33%
Doyle, Ms J S	15	0	0%	-15.00	0	0%
Price, R J	13	0	0%	-13.00	4	31%
Wellings, M	11	0	0%	-11.00	1	9%
Davis, D J S Ffrench	16	0	0%	-16.00	3	19%
Jarvis, A P	13	0	0%	-13.00	4	31%
OReilly, J	12	0	0%	-12.00	5	42%
Spearing, J L	12	0	0%	-12.00	2	17%
Palling, B	14	0	0%	-14.00	3	21%

From the trainer with a 20% plus strike rate I shall look at the trainers who have had 6 winners and have shown a profit (however we will include M Prescott due to his 50% strike rate)

Trainers to follow – Sir Mark Prescott, Ms D Evans, R Hannon, SC Williams, TD Barron, PW Hiatt and KA Ryan

We will now look at what type of races these trainers target

Long-list Race Cat	Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike
Handicap	113	37	33%	31.09	54	48%
Handicap Maiden	1	0	0%	-1.00	0	0%
Handicap Nursery	2	0	0%	-2.00	1	50%
Non-Handicap	19	7	37%	10.93	11	58%
Non-Handicap Claimer	14	5	36%	2.39	8	57%
Non-Handicap Maiden	12	2	17%	0.88	6	50%
Non-Handicap Maiden Claimer	2	2	100%	4.33	2	100%
Non-Handicap Seller	6	2	33%	0.50	3	50%

We can see that Handicaps and Non Handicap Races as well as Claiming races would appear to be the races to concentrate on

Now we will look at the position of the horse on its last run

Placing LR	Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike
First	36	20	56%	13.33	26	72%
Second	16	8	50%	10.73	9	56%
Third	15	5	33%	6.08	9	60%
Fourth	16	7	44%	21.07	9	56%
Fifth	12	2	17%	-6.42	7	58%
Sixth	8	2	25%	4.00	3	38%
Seventh	12	2	17%	-1.80	5	42%
Eighth	8	0	0%	-8.00	1	13%
Ninth	8	1	13%	4.00	2	25%
Tenth	6	2	33%	6.00	2	33%
Eleventh	6	1	17%	-3.25	1	17%
Twelfth	4	1	25%	4.00	1	25%
Fourteenth	1	0	0%	-1.00	0	0%

We can see that the best strike rate is from the horses that finished in the first 4 last time out.

Now we will look at the Class of Race the horse is running in

Race Class	Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike
Class 1	1	1	100%	8.00	1	100%
Class 3	4	1	25%	0.50	1	25%
Class 4	13	8	62%	14.32	10	77%
Class 5	34	18	53%	20.89	23	68%
Class 6	26	9	35%	0.62	13	50%
Class 7	5	3	60%	6.88	5	100%

The lower class races have the most runners so will concentrate on Class 4, 5, 6 and 7.

Now we will look at the odds of the horse

Odds	Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike
A) Less than 1/2	9	7	78%	0.25	8	89%
B) Btw 1/2 & 10/11	10	6	60%	-0.35	8	80%
C) Btw Evens & 6/4	11	6	55%	1.98	9	82%
D) Btw 13/8 & 9/4	7	3	43%	2.00	5	71%
E) Btw 5/2 & 4/1	19	12	63%	33.83	14	74%
F) Btw 9/2 & 6/1	9	3	33%	9.00	4	44%
G) Btw 13/2 & 8/1	9	1	11%	0.00	2	22%
H) Btw 17/2 & 12/1	1	0	0%	-1.00	0	0%
I) Btw 14/1 & 20/1	2	0	0%	-2.00	1	50%
J) Btw 22/1 & 40/1	1	0	0%	-1.00	0	0%

The price area to concentrate on is the horses priced at 4-1 or under

If we now look at the results from these rules

Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike
56	34	60.71%	37.71	44	78.57%

The timeline is as follows

Period	Bets	Wins	SP Points	Strike Rate
2010	3	2	1.15	66.67%
2009	6	5	8.87	83.33%
2008	7	3	3.75	42.86%
2007	6	2	-0.15	33.33%
2006	9	6	12.13	66.67%
2005	7	3	4.17	42.86%
2004	16	12	8.43	75%
2003	2	1	-0.64	50%

Now if we only look at the three most profitable tracks

Wolverhampton, Kempton and Lingfield these figures become

Bets	Wins	WinStrike	SP_PL	Places	PlaceStrike
47	29	61.70%	45.17	35	74.47%

Hopefully this article may give you a bit food for thought when you are looking at horses that are returned to the track quickly.

Wishing you every success

David Peat

www.horseprofiles.co.uk

  Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2010 Jonathan Burgess

Learn how to make realistic profits from betting

Practical, profitable advise direct to your inbox

Proven techniques I use in my own betting Honest reviews on systems and services that are profitable Exclusive tips to make your betting easier & more profitable

Name : Email : 22 subscribers

Get your hands on one of the most successful laying systems online click on the image below...

Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2010 Jonathan Burgess