Being different from the crowd is where the real profits are.
May 17, 2010 by Jonathan
Filed under Essential Reading, Horse Racing
Behaviour is more predictable than performance
When everyone operates and thinks along the same lines betting practices not only become predictable but also unprofitable. Its not widely know by the punting masses that in order to make consistent money from betting you must think and bet differently to the crowd. But what exactly does this mean in reality?
Don’t believe the hype
Unfortunately it’s clear that a large percentage of punters not only believe, but actually follow Internet and racing media hype. Racing journalism is full of factual information presented inaccurately. I know that sounds like a contradiction, but the problem usually lies in the way a particular judgment is offered; don’t forget the majority of first point information such as Race Verdicts are opinion based.
Punters have all the tools of the trade laid on for them but they generally take everything at face value and follow the opinions of the race readers to an unhealthy extent. Human behavioral patterns often play a key role, such as the inability to think independently. Most Racing Post readers automatically assume the contributors to the publication are successful pro punters and this leads the inexperienced punter off course. There is plenty enlightening information about each race on a daily basis, of that there can be no doubt. Without this fantastic resource like so many others I would be a little lost; after all we all feel comfortable using a guide were familiar with. But there is no denying the fact that we have to be very careful whose opinions we actually take on board when deciding to place a bet.
Form your own opinion
The best thing you can do is form your own, and then at least you can take full responsibility if things go wrong. And more importantly if you document your betting activities you will learn from mistakes, conversely blindly following the opinions of others will ultimately teach you nothing. As the Buddhist priest say
“Feel life for yourself – learn to make your own way”
“Don’t follow the path that everyone else takes if you want to become your own master”
There are fundamentals to adhere to, but many different ways to enlightenment.
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Hello Jonathon. Your advice is always welcome. However. I feel that form reading is largely a waste of time as is using rating software. (I have several and they all paint a different picture). How many times has a no-hoper come in ahead of a well rated, strongly fancied runner? It really is like guessing sometimes. Sure, some software will point you in the direction of a low value, short priced winner. I either follow the money or use Jon Christie’s Life System. Neither uses form and they both work. Dave.
Hi Dave
thank you for your comments regarding form reading, I have to say I agree and disagree on various aspects. Form reading is a valuable asset especially for layers. Even basic form analysis can steer you clear of Laying favourites which are likely to win. Form Reading also helps to identify how competitive a race actually is. we’re not talking about the complexities of in-depth formreading here, but rather simple class, distance, going, ratings and trainer strike rate assessments.all these elements can be quickly and accurately assessed.
cheers Jon
well i agree with dont follow the crowd etc and thats why i stick with online roulette to earn my stake money before i bet which is very easy money to my mind, how long can it last ? though i should add i lost quite a bit before i learned the ups and downs
Hi Jonathan, would like to know how peterpc earns is stake money on roulette, why don’t you just stick with that if it’s profitable?
Hi Jonathan,
A very interesting piece which brings two thoughts to mind. The first is that most writers in Racing Post and elsewhere are simply looking to tip winners. Very few are given the job of looking for value as well. The second is that a lot of journalists are meeting each other day in, day out. Just because an idea captures the imagination in the press room, does not make it right. As result a head of steam can build up about a horse with limited basis in fact.
hi Dave
You make some great points regarding the racing media. A lot of punters blindly believe that racing journalists are successful punters, unfortunately in many instances this is not the case, and they get paid for their opinions – not For Providing profitable advice.
Cheers John