Back, lay and Dutch bet tips for Saturday 3rd of March at Newbury (TV races)

3:10	NEW	Barbury International Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 Cl1 2m4f CH4

All tips and betting advice compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe of (AJ RACING) and Jonathan Burgess of (FALSE FAVOURITES BLOG)

8  Runnings but one dead heat in 2006 so nine winners

ODDS

FAVOURITES are 2/8 for £0.00 P/L

Odds range of 3/1 to 22/1 for the winners so no real angle there

TRAINERS

Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times (2 more placed) from 16 runners

Nicky Henderson has had 1 winner and a further 2 placed from just 4 runners

AGE

8/9 Aged 6 to 8.  8 yr olds fair best with 5 winners, 2 for 7 Yr olds and 1 for the 6 yr olds.

WEIGHT

No horse has yet to carry top weight to victory

9/9 carried at least 7lb less than the top weight i.e. 11st 5lbs or less

LAST RACE

All winners had last run within 60 days

15 horses last ran at Cheltenham and none have won with just the one placed

11 horses last ran at Newbury and none have won with just the one placed

2 winners had their last race at Kempton from just 8 runners with a further 2 placed

OTHER

Irish & French bred horses fair best winning 8/9, with GB bred horses winning just once from 25 runners

All winners had run at least twice within the last 90 days

6 of the 9 winners had previously won at the track

Bet advice

This looks an open race, with several horses in contention. There is also a strong trainer trend which can’t be ignored. Paul Nicholls has saddled four winners and two seconds in the last five years, therefore, ARIEL and PASCO are definitely worth considering. FINE PARCHMENT won this last year and now races off a slightly lower handicap mark. Another worthy horse is MAD MAX run 6th to Master Minded in April won all 3 starts over the course (NOT FENCES though)

Place a Dutch bet on: ARIEL, PASCO, FINE PARCHMENT and MAD MAX Use oddschecker DUTCHING calculator. http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html We set this up using the prices on Friday on Betfair, and splitting £10 across these runners would return £9.02 if any of them win. Efectively you have 4 chances of winning.

result: ARIEL won MAD MAX was declared a late non runner

3:25	DON	Download William Hill From The App-Store Grimthorpe Chase (Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f CH4

ODDS

FAVOURITES 2/11 for a profit of +£0.25

10/11 priced 11/2 or less

Backing non favs priced 11/2 or less produces a healthy £19.83 profit to a £1 stake at SP from 8 winners

TRAINERS

No multiple winners in recent yrs so no real angle here

AGE

All winners aged 6 to 11, so no real angle

WEIGHT

9/11 had an OR of at least 11less than the top rated

9/11 carried 10st 11lbs or less

LAST RACE

All winners finished in the 1^st four LTO

9/11 ran within the last 45 days

OTHER

11/11 either GB or IRE bred

11/11 finished in the top 3 in at least one of their last 3 starts

Bet Advice:

Both WEST END ROCKER and JUNIOR look likely to run well. MAC AEDA looks progressive but will probably be outclassed by some of these. BENNY BE GOOD also looks a viable option in a race where the odds of all the runners are close.

Place a Dutch Bet on: WEST END ROCKER, JUNIOR and BENNY BE GOOD. Using this dutching calculator – http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html

result:  JUNIOR lost by a nose in a photo finish WEST END ROCKER was declared a non runner.

Odds & Liability When laying

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this,  here`s a tutorial.

Alternatively,  if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds

Get a FREE bet here

Backing or Dutching

Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying.

 

The Race-Specialist Pro Lay Betting system is now only… £26.99 was (£39.99)

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