11 Essential Tips To Increase Your Jumps Racing Profits
October 20, 2011 by Jonathan
Filed under Horse Racing, Recent Articles
Betting on horses over the jumps can be a risky proposition for the ill informed punter. To help you avoid the most common mistakes, we have put together 11 essential betting tips. Following these principles throughout the National Hunt season will help to ensure money stays in your betting bank and not in the bookmakers satchels
Tip 1. Assess Ability
Back inform or progressive – (Improving) favourites in non handicap National Hunt races, but make sure they have proven ability under the conditions of the race being assessed.
Tip 2. Current season form
Only consider current season form as relevant, anything a horse achieved months ago can’t be relied upon – unless the horse in question has a race history which clearly shows it can win after an extended break. Top-class horses that only contest big prize-money races usually fit this profile.
Tip 3. Profitable Trainer Jockey combinations
Look for profitable trainer jockey combinations at certain courses using the Racing Post Seasonal Statistics feature. To access all these FREE stats simply visit the racing Post.com website and click on the statistics tab on the main navigation structure. From here you can mine more in-depth trainer information by simply clicking any trainers name in the table.
TRAINER | WINS–RUNS | 2NDS | 3RDS | 4THS | WIN PRIZE | TOTAL PRIZE | £1 STAKE | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tim Vaughan | 57–269 | 21% | 54 | 39 | 23 | £166,145 | £239,013 | -14.09 |
Evan Williams | 35–220 | 16% | 36 | 37 | 21 | £135,394 | £206,295 | -86.97 |
Peter Bowen | 38–219 | 17% | 33 | 22 | 18 | £126,948 | £188,048 | -16.05 |
Donald McCain | 43–183 | 23% | 31 | 23 | 27 | £140,720 | £178,905 | +48.41 |
Paul Nicholls | 24–82 | 29% | 17 | 16 | 7 | £107,359 | £152,162 | +2.77 |
Jonjo O’Neill | 41–210 | 20% | 26 | 17 | 26 | £112,782 | £147,982 | -15.88 |
David Pipe | 26–170 | 15% | 28 | 25 | 22 | £91,509 | £147,602 | -82.83 |
Philip Hobbs | 15–102 | 15% | 23 | 14 | 14 | £87,368 | £133,903 | -24.74 |
Nigel Twiston-Davies | 20–141 | 14% | 18 | 18 | 17 | £92,221 | £127,178 | -34.30 |
Gordon Elliott | 27–105 | 26% | 23 | 9 | 5 | £81,429 | £110,598 | -24.82 |
Nicky Henderson | 19–85 | 22% | 19 | 12 | 9 | £73,291 | £102,569 | -30.52 |
Howard Johnson | 12–52 | 23% | 12 | 8 | 4 | £61,918 | £91,803 | +4.47 |
Lucinda Russell | 15–148 | 10% | 23 | 27 | 21 | £54,840 | £87,633 | -56.18 |
Charlie Longsdon | 24–77 | 31% | 14 | 4 | 5 | £67,929 | £85,731 | +24.97 |
Martin Keighley | 15–105 | 14% | 19 | 15 | 11 | £45,614 | £80,120 | +7.58 |
Colin Tizzard | 14–78 | 18% | 10 | 11 | 14 | £51,523 | £73,071 | -17.36 |
Brian Ellison | 15–55 | 27% | 9 | 13 | 4 | £46,948 | £71,442 | +16.97 |
Jamie Snowden | 9–48 | 19% | 13 | 8 | 2 | £48,247 | £64,389 | +38.53 |
Tip 4. Field size
Are their more than 12 runners in the field? If so this will make accurate selection more difficult
Tip 5. Level of competition
What does the rest of the field look like? If it’s very weak then obviously, your selection will be strengthened.
Tip 6. Winning distances
If your selection came second in it last race, check how far behind the winner it was. If it was by some distance, treat the form with caution. If it was close up the form should be considered reliable as long as the current race conditions are similar to the last race.
Tip 7. Experience
Avoid backing horses doing something for the first time. Beginners, Maidens and first time Chasers are ones to be aware of. If you can identify horses that have been performing well in these types of races but still qualify because they have yet to win. Consider backing them, especially when facing an un-race favourite,which, incidentally, maybe worth laying.
Tip 8. Injuries
Any favourite that has had a long break due to injury, is best treated with caution, these horses are priced up on past form rather than on their current ability to win.
Tip 9. Do your homework
Don’t bet blindly on a horse just because it comes from one of the top stables and is mounted by one of the top jockeys. Check to make sure the horse has proven ability.
Tip 10. Going forecast
If the forecast going is HEAVY at any race meeting it is best to avoid betting on favourites unless you can identify that they have proven form on the going. HEAVY going throws up strange results. This is when you’re likely to see a big priced outsider grind out a win in the mud.
Tip 11. Class factor
Be wary of favourites stepping up in class for the first time, especially after a win in a lower class affair. If you can identify other horses with proven ability in the higher class consider laying the favourite.
The following factors need to be examined in detail before making any judgments.
CLASS > DISTANCE > GOING > COURSE > TRAINER > CONSISTENCY
Over the years the four most important variables of these have proven to be TRAINER, CLASS, DISTANCE and GOING. Take a more detailed look at these four factors before considering betting on a horse.
Race Specialist pro tip. Not all race courses are the same, some a far easier to negotiate than others. Horses with a few wins on easy courses won’t necessarily repeat that form on courses of a more demanding nature, like those with extreme characteristics such as a Long straight run in, or tough Uphill finish etc.
Refer to this National Hunt course guide to assess course characteristics.
Course |
Grade |
Run in from final fence in YRDS |
Shape |
Direction |
Speed |
Surface |
Fences |
Aintree | 1 | 490 | Left | Galloping | Flat | Stiff | |
Ascot | 1 | 160 | uphill | Right | Galloping | Testing | Stiff |
Ayr | 2 | 210 | Slight uphill | Left | Galloping | Flat | |
Bangor | 4 | 325 | left | Galloping | Flat | ||
Carlisle | 3 | 250 | uphill | Right | Gallop | UND`Testing | |
Cartmel | 4 | 800 | Left | Galloping | Testing | ||
Catterick | 3 | 240 | Left | Sharp | Testing | ||
Cheltenham | 1 | 350 | uphill | Left | Galloping | Testing | Stiff |
Chepstow | 2 | 240 | Left | Gallop | Undulating | ||
Exeter | 4 | 250 | uphill | Right | Galloping | UND`Testing | |
Doncaster | 1 | 250 | Left | Galloping | Flat | ||
Fakeham | 4 | 220 | Left | Sharp | UND`Testing | ||
Folkestone | 3 | 220 | Right | Average | Undulating | Easy | |
Fontwell | 4 | 220 | Left | Sharp | Fair | ||
Haydock | 1 | 440 | Left | Galloping | Testing | Stiff | |
Hereford | 4 | 300 | Right | Galloping | Flat | Stiffish | |
Huntingdon | 3 | 200 | oval | Right | Galloping | Flat, fast | |
Hexham | 4 | 250 | oval | left | Undulating | Testing | Easy |
kelso | 4 | 490 | Left | Galloping sharp | Testing | ||
Kempton | 1 | 200 | triangle | Right | Sharpish | Flat Easy | Stiff |
Leister | 3 | 250 | uphill | Right | Galloping | Testing | |
lingfield | 2 | 200 | Left | Sharp | Undulating | ||
ludlow | 4 | 450 | Right | Galloping sharp | Flat | ||
Market Rasen | 3 | 220 | Right | Galloping, sharp | Undulating | Easy | |
Musselburgh | 3 | 200 | Right | Sharp | Flat | Stiff | |
Newbury | 1 | 255 | Left | Galloping | Flat | Stiff | |
Newcastle | 2 | 220 | uphill | Left | Galloping | Testing | stiff |
Newton Abbot | 3 | 300 | Left | Sharp | Fat | ||
Perth | 4 | 450 | Right | Average | Easy flat | ||
Plumton | 4 | 200 | Left | Undulating,sharp | Testing | ||
Sandown | 1 | 300 | uphill | Right | Galloping | Testing | Stiff |
Sedgefield | 4 | 525 | Left | Undulating,sharp | Testing | Easy | |
Southwell | 4 | 250 | Left | Sharp | Flat | ||
Stratford | 3 | 200 | Left | Galloping,sharp | Flat | ||
Taunton | 4 | 150 | Right | Sharp | Flat | ||
Towcester | 3 | 300 | uphill | Right | Undulating,sharp | Testing | |
Uttoxeter | 4 | 300 | Left | Galloping | Testing | ||
Warwick | 3 | 240 | Left | Sharp | Flat | ||
Wetherby | 2 | 190 | Left | Galloping | Flat | Stiff | |
Wincanton | 2 | 200 | oval | Right | Galloping | flat | |
Worcester | 3 | 220 | Left | Average | Easy flat |
Always stick with the facts and not the possibilities
The professional punter recognizes the big picture and will learn from as many sources as possible. To join them you must be disciplined and systematic. You may only find a few bets a week using this advice but they will be very strong indeed.
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Comments
3 Responses to “11 Essential Tips To Increase Your Jumps Racing Profits”Speak Your Mind
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As always, clear, well written and spot on guidance from Jonathan. My lay betting keeps on track with this kind of support. Thanks.
excellent info
Fantastic information!
Yet you make no mention of weight, do you not consider this an important factor?