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11 Essential Tips To Increase Your Jumps Racing Profits

October 20, 2011 by  
Filed under Horse Racing, Recent Articles

Betting on horses over the jumps can be a risky proposition for the ill informed punter. To help you avoid the most common mistakes, we have put together 11 essential betting tips. Following these principles throughout the National Hunt season will help to ensure money stays in your betting bank and not in the bookmakers satchels

Tip 1. Assess Ability

Back inform or progressive – (Improving) favourites in non handicap National Hunt races, but make sure they have proven ability under the conditions of the race being assessed.

Tip 2. Current season form

Only consider current season form as relevant, anything a horse achieved months ago can’t be relied upon – unless the horse in question has a race history which clearly shows it can win after an extended break. Top-class horses that only contest big prize-money races usually fit this profile.

Tip 3. Profitable Trainer Jockey combinations

Look for profitable trainer jockey combinations at certain courses using the Racing Post Seasonal Statistics feature. To access all these FREE stats simply visit the racing Post.com website and click on the statistics tab on the main navigation structure. From here you can mine more in-depth trainer information by simply clicking any trainers name in the table.

TRAINER WINS–RUNS 2NDS 3RDS 4THS WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE £1 STAKE
Tim Vaughan 57–269 21% 54 39 23 £166,145 £239,013 -14.09
Evan Williams 35–220 16% 36 37 21 £135,394 £206,295 -86.97
Peter Bowen 38–219 17% 33 22 18 £126,948 £188,048 -16.05
Donald McCain 43–183 23% 31 23 27 £140,720 £178,905 +48.41
Paul Nicholls 24–82 29% 17 16 7 £107,359 £152,162 +2.77
Jonjo O’Neill 41–210 20% 26 17 26 £112,782 £147,982 -15.88
David Pipe 26–170 15% 28 25 22 £91,509 £147,602 -82.83
Philip Hobbs 15–102 15% 23 14 14 £87,368 £133,903 -24.74
Nigel Twiston-Davies 20–141 14% 18 18 17 £92,221 £127,178 -34.30
Gordon Elliott 27–105 26% 23 9 5 £81,429 £110,598 -24.82
Nicky Henderson 19–85 22% 19 12 9 £73,291 £102,569 -30.52
Howard Johnson 12–52 23% 12 8 4 £61,918 £91,803 +4.47
Lucinda Russell 15–148 10% 23 27 21 £54,840 £87,633 -56.18
Charlie Longsdon 24–77 31% 14 4 5 £67,929 £85,731 +24.97
Martin Keighley 15–105 14% 19 15 11 £45,614 £80,120 +7.58
Colin Tizzard 14–78 18% 10 11 14 £51,523 £73,071 -17.36
Brian Ellison 15–55 27% 9 13 4 £46,948 £71,442 +16.97
Jamie Snowden 9–48 19% 13 8 2 £48,247 £64,389 +38.53

Tip 4. Field size

Are their more than 12 runners in the field?  If so this will make accurate selection more difficult

Tip 5. Level of competition

What does the rest of the field look like? If it’s very weak then obviously, your selection will be strengthened.

Tip 6. Winning distances

If your selection came second in it last race, check how far behind the winner it was. If it was by some distance, treat the form with caution. If it was close up the form should be considered reliable as long as the current race conditions are similar to the last race.

Tip 7. Experience

Avoid backing horses doing something for the first time. Beginners, Maidens and first time Chasers are ones to be aware of. If  you can identify horses that have been performing well in these types of races but still qualify because they have yet to win. Consider backing them, especially when facing an un-race favourite,which, incidentally, maybe worth laying.

Tip 8. Injuries

Any favourite that has had a long break due to injury, is best treated with caution, these horses are priced up on past form rather than on their current ability to win.

Tip 9. Do your homework

Don’t bet blindly on a horse just because it comes from one of the top stables and is mounted by one of the top jockeys. Check to make sure the horse has proven ability.

Tip 10. Going forecast

If the forecast going is HEAVY at any race meeting it is best to avoid betting on favourites unless you can identify that they have proven form on the going. HEAVY going throws up strange results. This is when you’re likely to see a big priced outsider grind out a win in the mud.

Tip 11. Class factor

Be wary of favourites stepping up in class for the first time, especially after a win in a lower class affair. If you can identify other horses with proven ability in the higher class consider laying the favourite.

The following factors need to be examined in detail before making any judgments.

CLASS > DISTANCE > GOING > COURSE > TRAINER > CONSISTENCY

Over the years the four most important variables of these have proven to be TRAINER, CLASS, DISTANCE and GOING. Take a more detailed look at these four factors before considering betting on a horse.

Race Specialist pro tip. Not all race courses are the same, some a far easier to negotiate than others. Horses with a few wins on easy courses won’t necessarily repeat that form on courses of a more demanding nature, like those with extreme characteristics such as a Long straight run in, or tough Uphill finish etc.

Refer to this National Hunt course guide to assess course characteristics.

Course

Grade

Run in from final fence in YRDS

Shape

Direction

Speed

Surface

Fences

Aintree 1 490 Left Galloping Flat Stiff
Ascot 1 160 uphill Right Galloping Testing Stiff
Ayr 2 210 Slight uphill Left Galloping Flat
Bangor 4 325 left Galloping Flat
Carlisle 3 250 uphill Right Gallop UND`Testing
Cartmel 4 800 Left Galloping Testing
Catterick 3 240 Left Sharp Testing
Cheltenham 1 350 uphill Left Galloping Testing Stiff
Chepstow 2 240 Left Gallop Undulating
Exeter 4 250 uphill Right Galloping UND`Testing
Doncaster 1 250 Left Galloping Flat
Fakeham 4 220 Left Sharp UND`Testing
Folkestone 3 220 Right Average Undulating Easy
Fontwell 4 220 Left Sharp Fair
Haydock 1 440 Left Galloping Testing Stiff
Hereford 4 300 Right Galloping Flat Stiffish
Huntingdon 3 200 oval Right Galloping Flat, fast
Hexham 4 250 oval left Undulating Testing Easy
kelso 4 490 Left Galloping sharp Testing
Kempton 1 200 triangle Right Sharpish Flat Easy Stiff
Leister 3 250 uphill Right Galloping Testing
lingfield 2 200 Left Sharp Undulating
ludlow 4 450 Right Galloping sharp Flat
Market Rasen 3 220 Right Galloping, sharp Undulating Easy
Musselburgh 3 200 Right Sharp Flat Stiff
Newbury 1 255 Left Galloping Flat Stiff
Newcastle 2 220 uphill Left Galloping Testing stiff
Newton Abbot 3 300 Left Sharp Fat
Perth 4 450 Right Average Easy flat
Plumton 4 200 Left Undulating,sharp Testing
Sandown 1 300 uphill Right Galloping Testing Stiff
Sedgefield 4 525 Left Undulating,sharp Testing Easy
Southwell 4 250 Left Sharp Flat
Stratford 3 200 Left Galloping,sharp Flat
Taunton 4 150 Right Sharp Flat
Towcester 3 300 uphill Right Undulating,sharp Testing
Uttoxeter 4 300 Left Galloping Testing
Warwick 3 240 Left Sharp Flat
Wetherby 2 190 Left Galloping Flat Stiff
Wincanton 2 200 oval Right Galloping flat
Worcester 3 220 Left Average Easy flat

Always stick with the facts and not the possibilities

The professional punter recognizes the big picture and will learn from as many sources as possible. To join them you must be disciplined and systematic. You may only find a few bets a week using this advice but they will be very strong indeed.

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club. You can contact him here


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Comments

3 Responses to “11 Essential Tips To Increase Your Jumps Racing Profits”
  1. Mark says:

    As always, clear, well written and spot on guidance from Jonathan. My lay betting keeps on track with this kind of support. Thanks.

  2. tony says:

    excellent info

  3. Ashley says:

    Fantastic information!
    Yet you make no mention of weight, do you not consider this an important factor?

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