4 Reasons Why You shouldn`t Back Top Rated horses blindly?

1. Horse Ratings

Most sports betting guides use ratings to compare horse performance; for example the Racing Post`s ratings are based on various different factors such as, speed, ability, recent form, etc. The Postdata table compares all the horses in a race, the idea being, punters can quickly assess one horses merits over another, thus allowing them a quick way of identifying likely winners.

Unfortunately the punting masses fail to appreciate that this is really only a starting point and should not be taken too literally.

Often after looking into the top horse’s race history it can become apparent that it has a limited chance, and you should consider laying it if comparable opposition can be identified, these steps should always be taken before any decisions are made about whether to get involved or not.

2. Top rated horses should not automatically be considered the most likely winners of a race!

A lot of the 5 minute miracle systems advocate either backing top rated horses, or avoiding top rated horses for lay bets. In my opinion it is better to assess the top 3 to see if there is a false favourite which can be opposed.

When using ratings as a race assessment tool you should always check the margin between the favourite and its closest rivals. If it is clearly top rated for example a 130 and the next horse is 115 then look closer for a reason why this is so.

Conversely if the margin between the top 3 horse’s is close for example, the favourite was rated 130, second fav 128, third 127 and fourth 126, then it maybe an open affair with an opposable market leader.

You also need to be alert if the two top rated horses are way ahead of the rest of the field, especially if the difference in points between them is very close. If so then it won’t be easy to distinguish between them and you will need to assess which horse is best suited to the race conditions.

If you still can’t decide between the two, leave these horses for laying purposes and move onto a more identifiable target. If your more into backing horses then a forecast bet maybe a possibility, or even dutch the 2 highest rated if the odds permit.

3. Race Conditions

Top Rated horses might have achieved their best rating under different race conditions than the current race.

A lot of punters blindly follow these horses with without looking closer at where, and under what conditions the top rating was achieved. If the rating was achieved in similar conditions to the current race then look around for rivals that have the ability to beat the favourite. If there aren’t any assess if the favourite is going to beat itself because it is racing outside its favored race conditions.

Avoid using systems that advise betting on a Top Rated horses purely on the basis they have the highest rating. You are in effect taking a major short cut and will never make consistent profits doing so. Don’t buy into fools gold of blindly backing Top Rated Horses. If you want to lay a top rated horse make sure it has enough negatives or opposition to be a viable bet.

4. A Word Of Caution About Newspaper Tipsters

If you want some proof to back up the argument, take a look at some Profit & Loss statistic taken from the Tipsters tables on the Racing Post web site. These statistics show the performance achieved by the various National Press tipsters. In the majority of cases they are showing a loss.

	Record for all races this year				Naps		Monthly record
T’OVER	NEWSPAPER & TIPSTER	WINS-TIPS		FAVSTIPPED	£1 BET	CUR SEQ	WINS-TIPS	£1 BET
93.80%	The Times Rob Wright	1520-5732	26%	46%	+6.71	2L	136-479	+18.35
92.78%	The Favourite	2348-6562	36%	100%			184-528	-28.47
92.16%	Postdata	1579-6222	25%	41%	-1.75	5L	111-486	-65.30
91.02%	Rp Ratings	1723-5983	28%	53%	-28.77	7L	129-480	-85.98
89.73%	Telegraph Marlborough	1502-5678	26%	47%	-39.07	1L	114-461	-19.95
89.45%	The Sun Templegate	1653-6233	26%	48%	-14.91	3L	122-492	-78.11
89.25%	The Express Computerman	1616-6073	26%	47%	+9.02	1L	127-486	-42.49
89.19%	The Star Peter Thickett	1734-6220	27%	53%	-44.87	4L	120-483	-92.93
88.85%	The Guardian	1451-5725	25%	44%	-26.40	1W	108-464	-100.15
88.08%	Daily Mail Robin Goodfellow	1499-5709	26%	47%	+27.69	2W	106-467	-75.09
86.27%	Daily Mirror Newsboy	1629-6207	26%	50%	-39.84	6L	138-489	-10.77
85.17%	Top Course Trainer	1089-6158	17%	23%			72-483	-68.82

These Tipsters have to put a tip up for every race, on every card, every single day of the year. Do you really think that they have more than 10 minutes to look at each race. They use a quick selection process which works some of the time, but on the whole the statistics prove that in the long-term there is very little mileage backing Top Rated horses.

These guys do a great job in helping us make informed decisions, but they make their money from journalism, and there is no way in the world they bet on every race they offer a tip in. I would imagine only selectively when a good opportunity presents itself.

Race-specialist pro tip

Don’t forget you can pick and choose which races to get involved in, where as Tipsters have to give a selection out in every race, it’s their job. But don’t think for one minute they are backing all the horse’s advised. Being selective is the biggest advantage you have in racing, use it to maximize profits and only get involved when everything is your favor.

Learn how to make realistic profits from betting

Practical, profitable advise direct to your inbox

Proven techniques I use in my own betting Honest reviews on systems and services that are profitable Exclusive tips to make your betting easier & more profitable

Name : Email : 22 subscribers

Get your hands on one of the most successful laying systems online click on the image below...

Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2010 Jonathan Burgess