Cheltenham Festival Day 4 – Friday 18th March
March 17, 2011 by Jonathan
Filed under Horse Racing, Recent Articles
The final day at the festival looks tricky with mixed stats for many of the races, with this in mind I have provided just 1 race assessment.
The key emphasis will be on laying favourites in races where the stats indicate favourites have a p00r long-term record. I hope you have all enjoyed my insight into betting against favourites using stats.
1.30 (JCB) Triumph HurdleThe faq`s
- 12 of the last 17 winners (including the last 6) started in the first 4 in the betting.
- The last 5 winners were officially rated 138+
- The Favourites don’t have a good record in this race. Only 2 favourites have won in the last 21 years.
- N.J. Henderson has won this the last 2 years running. Grandouet is the current favourite – trading @ 7.8 at the time of this post going live, although 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites are all trading around 8.00. So this is likely to change before the off. Sam winner Has already beaten Grandouet this season.
| Year | Horse | Age | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Soldatino | 4 | N J Henderson | 6/1 |
| 2009 | Zaynar | 4 | N J Henderson | 11/2 |
| 2008 | Celestial Halo | 4 | P F Nicholls | 5/1 |
| 2007 | Katchit | 4 | A King | 11/2 |
| 2006 | Detroit City | 4 | P J Hobbs | 7/2F |
| 2005 | Penzance | 4 | A King | 9/1 |
| 2004 | Made In Japan | 4 | P J Hobbs | 20/1 |
| 2003 | Spectroscope | 4 | J O’Neill | 20/1 |
| 2002 | Scolardy | 4 | W P Mullins | 16/1 |
| 2000 | Snow Drop | 4 | F Doumen | 7/1 |
| 1999 | Katarino | 4 | N J Henderson | 11/4 |
| 1998 | Upgrade | 4 | N A Twiston-Davies | 14/1 |
| 1997 | Commanche Court | 4 | T M Walsh | 9/1 |
| 1996 | Paddy’s Return | 4 | F Murphy | 10/1 |
| 1995 | Kissair | 4 | M C Pipe | 16/1 |
| 1994 | Mysilv | 4 | D Nicholson | 2/1F |
| 1993 | Shawiya | 4 | M J P O’Brien | 12/1 |
| 1992 | Duke Of Monmouth | 4 | S E H Sherwood | 33/1 |
| 1991 | Oh So Risky | 4 | D R C Elsworth | 14/1 |
| 1990 | Rare Holiday | 4 | D K Weld | 25/1 |
| 1989 | Ikdam | 4 | R J Holder | 66/1 |
Bet advice
Lay the favourite
Odds & Liability
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this here`s a tutorial
Staking & Bet execution
No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until the market has formed properly, (usually by mid morning on each day of the races), although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play asking for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.
Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.
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