Six steps to making better lay selections

Many punters email me asking “What is the best way to make selections”

I would love to say there was a simple answer but to be honest it all really depends on the type of racing on offer. This is usually the key to which type bets I would consider, but the very nature of racing dictate’s that this will vary from day to day; therefore some days there will be more opportunities than others.

Step1: Day by Day

Most weekday mornings I will head on over to Betfair and visit  http://horseracing.betfair.com/and look through each meeting available that day. I tend to focus on one type of racing each day; this cuts down race analysis significantly. At this stage I don’t apply any hard or fast rules but simply look for races that are the right shape for lay betting, i.e. where there’s a few live contenders and realistic threats to the favourites.

Step2: Prioritize

I immediately ignore races that look difficult to assess, with form figures that can’t be quantified with any degree of accuracy or those which are historically unprofitable to bet in because they don’t suit my various laying approaches. Usually these are non handicap races with strong favourites, maidens full of unraced horses or small field tactical races.

This typically leaves me with around 5-10 races to look at in more detail, although when there is big race meeting taking place I may have  a few opportunities to back real quality horses that `I follow each season using the excellent HorseRacingbase.

You can download my guide to following horses here

Step 3: Organise

The next step is to add the races I`m interested to “My Markets” on Betfair. Doing this give me an overview of the race times so I can plan my betting around my other work commitments, such as false-favourites-blog posts and customer emails.

Step 4: Check out the Form

My next task is to scan each race using the RACINGPOST.COM, to see if I can  identify a betting edge in any of the races I may get involved in. Usually this means eliminating horses that are unlikely to win. These will often be animals which have a something to prove.

Factors I give importance to are: Distance, Class, Going, Consistency, Ability, Trainer form, Small or large field patter and crucially the level of competition the favourites have. Although it has to be said when opposing weak favourites the class factor can often eclipse other factors.

Long-term racing statistics also play a key role, such as those documented in my unique betting guide false-favourites. These trends provide a significant betting edge and allow me to focus by being a race specialist. At this point I will have identified a small group of horses from where the winner is likely to come from, in each race. Again race stats can help greatly with that task.

Step 5: Watch the market

Once I have done that it`s just a case of letting the betting market form on Betfair. This helps me to gauge which horses are being supported and also confirms that the betting forecast on the whole is a true reflection of each horse chances. Ultimately this gives me a good idea which races the best lays are in.

As always value is very important. No one likes laying 10/1 outsiders; in fact doing so is undeniably the quickest route to ruin. Simply checking the racing results each day clearly shows these animals do win.

So, as a rule of thumb 7/2 is my absolute maximum lay price, anything over this is just not worth the risk. I want to bet with emotional stability – affording that comfort zone means limiting risk. Protecting your betting bank is an essential part of staying in the game.

Step 6: Final decisions

I usually make my final decision to lay selections about 10 minutes before the off, but this does depend on market activity on Betfair and non runners. If I think a horse is false favourite and the masses are backing other horses in a particular race, then the favourite is likely to drift in price, so to obtain a value lay bet its often wise to lay early in the day.

As a rule of thumb it`s wise not to lay any selection when its main rival/s have been declared non runners, since its chances of winning will have increased because the level of competition has been reduced.

Take home lessons:

Practice assessing each days racing objectively. Don’t try to look at too many race meetings, keep a keen eye on the betting market on Betfair. Look out for non runners, drifting odds and avoid laying strong favourites who`s form chances suggest a bold showing; especially those  which appear to have no real competition.

Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2011 Jonathan Burgess

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Copyright secured by Digiprove � 2010 Jonathan Burgess