Why Do Jumps Favourites Win More Consistently Than Favourites on the Flat?
September 20, 2013 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
for much longer. Some of the very best chasers end up as house hold names.
Sentiment aside though, you may have noticed that at some meetings there can be as many as 4 winning favourites in a day. Even worse this occasionally happens at two meetings.
So if you’re a regular layer, you should really be asking…
“What can I do to avoid laying these winning favourites?”
Very few punters know that favourites perform better in National Hunt racing than on the Flat
The burning question is why, and does that mean we can make a profit backing them?
Based on statistical research I will try to answer these questions objectively.
One thing that springs to mind is the lack of serious competition in certain races especially in non handicaps. Jumps’ racing is almost dominated by the same group of trainer’s year in year out. If you follow the code you will regularly see the likes of…
- Paul Nicholls
- Donald Mc Cain
- Alan King
- J.J.Oneill
- N.J.Henderson
- N.J.Twiston Davies
- David Pipe
- P.J.HobbsÂ
Near to, or at the top of the trainers table in the Racing Post. Some of these trainers fair better at certain tracks and in certain types of races, so an awareness of this can often help you avoid laying their horses when they start out as favourite under certain conditions.
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11 Essentail tips to increase your Jumps racing profits
November is the beginning of the proper National Hunt winter season and a lot of horses will not have had their first run for many months. Some trainers are great at getting their horses ready early season and have a very good strike rate, whilst others don’t hit top form with their runners untill later on.
The main problem is you won’t know a yard has hit top form until it actually happens, so it pays dividends to at least try and get a basic understanding of the top yards Modus Operandi
Let’s take a look at non handicaps…
The highest winning strike rates for favourites in the UK come in…
Novice Hurdles and Novice Chases
This area of the national hunt code can be very tricky for both favourite backer, and layers. Mainly because the winning percentages are high at most courses: the win stats can be nearly 50% at some courses, but as general average they are between 36% to 46%.
As I mentioned above these races are often not that competitive, even with 15 runners lining up, you will regularly get one and sometimes two horse’s that could beat the rest of the field every time.
These better quality animals very often come from the top stables I’ve already mentioned. These stables simply attract the best and most expensive horses and can have up to 200 in training at any one time, compare that to a small yard with 20 – 50 horses and it doesn’t take a genius to see who is going to have the best ammunition to win races with.
I’m not saying small stables don’t have regular winners, and if you are a backer then following certain shrewd trainers can be very profitable because they send out some large priced winners, all too often though those types are difficult to spot.
So if you are looking to lay the favourite be cautious in Non handicap races, check the trainers strike rate in those races and if it is high at a certain course, then it is definitely worth avoiding laying his/her horses.
Obviously they don’t win all the time but you will get caught out time and time again if you’re not aware of this factor, especially if their horses are well suited to the conditions and have previous experience within that type of race. Combine these factors with a high Trainer/Jockey strike rate and your asking for trouble.
Can a profit be made backing in non handicaps such as Novice Hurdles and Novice Chases, well it certainly is possible if you are selective. Unfortunately there is one major problem and that is…
Every man and his dog knows that the favourites are likely to win these races, that in turn cause’s very bad over betting of the favourite. Remember prices are media driven the more coverage a horse gets the less value there is to be had. Since obtaining value is the key to long term profits, it can be a pointless exercise backing these animals regularly.
Basically it is difficult to make consistent profits backing or laying favourites in these races. So its best look else where. There are certain non handicap races that are worthy of a closer look, those are…
Maiden Hurdles – Juvenile Hurdles
Horses trying something for the very first time are often worth closer inspection, more so if they face animals that are proven in that type of race but still qualify to compete through lack of win.
Un-raced horse’s make good lays as they are priced up on potential and not actual form recorded on the race course. Simply by being selective you can oppose a horse that everyone else is likely to be supporting because it comes from a top stable. Which seems to contradict what I told you above?
It’s case of knowing when to lay a stables horses turning out as favourite and when not to.
Most horses need race course experience before they can win and no amount off course training can totally prepare an animal for an actual race. Very few win on their course debut, so look out for these types. Especially what I call talking horses, i.e. Media hyped up animals that the bookies are claiming can`t loose.
Why the hell would anyone trust what a Bookie’s on course representative has to say?
These media pundits are trained in the art of misdirection. Essentially the sneaky buggers are trying to get the masses watching the racing on TV to blow their cash on a False-Favourite.
Take a closer look at most competitive handicaps they are nearly always sponsored by Bookies, hmm! You may be wondering why?
Well aren’t those races always on TV Saturday afternoon imagine how many recreational punters are acting upon some media tit bit, or some bookie misdirection? If you didn’t already know those races often have a massive over-round (Bookie built in profit margin) On occasions it can be huge, i.e. as much as 30%, especially when there are lots of runners.
There is also a few other types of national hunt races worth looking at, and those are handicaps
Either…
[wlm_private_6 months]Handicap Hurdles and Handicap chases
These types of races are usually competitive and the winner could come from any one of 3 or 4 horses, unlike Novice Hurdles where the favourites are generally very strong. Bear in mind though it does vary from course to course.
False-Favourites Pro-Tip:
Try to see every race as an island and judge each one on its own merits. But be aware of the bigger picture with regards to Non handicap favourites winning a high percentage of races and you won’t go far wrong.
Knowledge of the type of events you’re betting on will definitely give you an edge, so if you are laying in the wrong races to begin with, you really are disadvantaged even before those races are run.
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