Why Betting Systems Need To Be Logical, Simple and Specific

How many of us would deny that a good betting system is based on logic?

We’ll briefly explore other factors – some might argue the word ‘rules’ is too strong and inflexible– that underpin what might be classified as ‘a good betting system’.

That word ‘good’ is a bit vague. So, to clarify, I’m using it in the sense of  ‘successful…profitable…’

To help you build your own logical, successful and profitable betting system here are some basic foundations to consider.

Step 1:  Define Its Logic

If your proposed system is based on already known and observable statements, events or conditions, then it is going to be pretty logical.

• If logical it’s repeatable and — to some degree — predictable.
• If illogical it’s probably going to be a one-off, with as much validity and usefulness as an expired train ticket.

You might notice a race trend or tendency. For example, horses can often suddenly perform better after moving to a new stable.

Reasons? We’ll never know for sure. But logic would suggest:

• different training techniques
• change of environment for the horse, having a short-term positive effect

So we might devise a system based on backing horses to win and place in their next three or four races after moving to a new trainer, come to that.

Time will prove or disprove the approach, but at least it’s logical.

On the other hand, would it be logical to back these horses six months after they moved to new trainer in handicap races only on a Saturday.

Logically, which of these two trends has the best chance of success over the long term, do you think?

Step 2:  Uncomplicated And Simple

The more complicated a system the easier it will be for you to:

• Make errors in processing data
• Become tired
• Become bored
• Lose interest and motivation

Let KISS ( keep it simple) be your touchstone.

You might notice that the favourite tends to win over 40% of races at a particular track.

So a simple system might be to only bet the favourite at that track with some sort of target betting, or if low-risk loss recovery if you can cope with inevitable runs of outs.

Step 3:  Introduce Logical Filters

You might have also noticed trends to do with the winning favourites’ prices at that particular track.

So you introduce a simple filter or two according to its price, to help reduce outlays without compromising profitability.

Or, when looking at another racing system’s past results, you might have noticed it’s not profitable in flat racing. But it’s very profitable over the jumps.

It may transpire that the system is NOT suitable for jump racing, but it’s worth exploring to prove or disprove the hypothesis.

Some like to put together a system based on past results. This type of back-testing is more likely to be valid if it’s based on logic.

But ignore logic in back-testing and you’re more likely to come up with a system that really belongs in the bottom of a tea cup – with all the other tea leaves!

Taking this further, your analyses might indicate that a system has made a profit on a Monday and Saturday, but not on a Wednesday.

Is that a valid and logical reason to avoid betting on Wednesdays?

Surely, if the system is any good, shouldn’t a good run on Wednesdays be due, if only to even out what could be simply a statistical anomaly?

So perhaps there’s now more of a reason to bet on Wednesdays!

Logical Filters

Consider the importance (or otherwise) of these sorts of filters:

• Consider the type of race: Flat racing, jumps, all weather  or various combinations of all three
• High or low class races
• Restrictions based on numbers of runner (Small fields versus large fields)
• Restrictions based on distance (sprints or stayers?)
• Restrictions based on weight carried
• Form figures (perhaps based on the last 3 races)
• Days since last run (some horses go well after a spell; others need a few races to achieve fitness)

And if you devise your filters according to statistical records collected over a large number of races then your strategy will be particularly logic-based.

Those of you interested in creating your own betting systems will also find our other tutorials on this subject useful:

• Why Punters fail with most betting systems? 
• How to create your own profitable betting systems (HRB part 2) 
• Punters don’t need loads of betting systems, they need a better understanding of their betting habits

If you simply don’t have the time or inclination to create your own betting systems, we can provide you with;

• weekly lay tips

• profitable monthly trainer trends, including weekly tips

• advanced Betting tutorials and videos

• Big race trends – Our trends expert Jonathan Sutcliffe assess all the big races trends and then provides you with a detailed breakdown of the most profitable Trainer jockey combinations, and clear profile of previous winning horses. (Every Saturday)

To get all of this and so much more join the false favourites members club today? Its a steal at only £7.99 at month.

 

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