Trends, Statistics And Betting Angles For CH4 Races (Saturday 31.3.2012)
March 23, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
Backing or Dutching
Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying! You can use this dutching calculator to work out your stakes here. Read our tutorial on how to use Dutching to make regular profits here
Odds & Liability When laying
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, Â if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds
The Race-Specialist Pro Lay Betting system is now only… £26.99 was (£39.99)
| 2:05 | DONCASTER | William Hill Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl3 1m CH4 |
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ODDS – Various so no angle here
FAVOURITES – 1 winning favourite in the last 10 races for a loss of -£5.00. Potential favourite laying angles.
TRAINERS
Richard Fahey has won the race twice from 11 runners with a further 4 placed Potential E/W bets on his runners
AGE – 10/10 aged 4 to 6.    8/10 aged 4
WEIGHT – appears you need to be Top Weight or 2lbs lower or at the bottom of the weights, those carrying 3 to 10lbs less than top weight have only provided one winner from 120 runners. Potential lay angles.
LAST RACE
9/10 were priced at 12/1 or less in their last race
9/10 ran in a handicap
Only 2 winners ran on the All Weather last time from 99 runners. Potential laying angles
OTHER FACTORS
6/10 had won at least once in their last 3 runs
8/10 were Irish bred
10/10 had either not run or ran once or twice in the last 90 days, 3 or more times ZERO wins from 37 runners Potential lay angles
10/10 had won between one & 4 career wins
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| 2:40 | DONCASTER | New William Hill iPhone App Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f CH4 |
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ODDS – Various
FAVOURITES – 4/15 for a profit of +£1.25
AGE – 15/15 aged 3 to 7
TRAINERS – Barry Hills has won the race 3 times (from 8 runners, a further 2 placed) so look out for Charlie Hills runners as possible win and E/W bets
WEIGHT – N/A
LAST RACE
11/15 raced over 6 furlongs
12/15 raced in either a Group 2, Group 3 or listed race
OTHER FACTORS – None
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| 3:15 | DONCASTER | William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m CH4 |
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ODDS – Various
FAVOURITES – 6/15 for a profit of +£16.33. Favourites have a great record and actually make a profit. Potential backing angle
TRAINERS
Mark Tompkins (2/9 a further 2 placed) and William Haggas  (2/4) have won the race twice. Potential win or E/W angles on their runners.
WEIGHT – those carrying 20lbs less than the top weight have a poor record – ZERO wins from 39 runners and only 1 placed.
LAST RACE
14/15 ran in a handicap
OTHER FACTORS
15/15 finished in the 1st four in at least one of their last 3 runs
11/15 won at least once in one of their last 3 runs
14/15 had either run once or not at all during the last 90 days
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| 3:50 | DONCASTER | Download William Hill From The App Store Brocklesby Conditions Stakes Cl4 5f CH4 |
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This race is a bit of a funny one as it has been moved around in the Calendar a little bit, but today we see it on Day 1 of the flat season so all are making their debuts today whereas previously horses with a run under their belts have had a good record in this race, so the only thing we really have to go on is the prices and the trainers who can ready a 2 year old at this time of year. Very few Trainers have decent records with their debutant’s (never raced in public before) Therefore this is potentially a great laying angle.
ODDS – 13/15 priced 12/1 or less
FAVOURITES –Only 1 winner in 15 yrs from favs, joint-favs and co-favs for a loss of -£15.50. Potential favourite laying angle
TRAINERS
Bill Turner has had 4 winners from 15 runners with 4 more placed. E/W possibilities for his runners
BA McMahon 3 winners from 8 runners, 1 more placed. E/W possibilities for his runnersÂ
Richard Fahey 2 winners from 6 runners. E/W possibilities for his runners
Other trainers that have done well with 2 yr olds in March/April over the last 5 yrs and have runners at the 5 day decs stage are
Alan Bailey
Richard Hannon
Jamie Osbourne
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| 2:20 | KEMPTON | William Hill App-Download Today! Magnolia Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f CH4 |
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The last 6 races have been on the all weather so stats for those races only, so not a great deal to go on
ODDS – Various
FAVOURITES – 1/6 for a loss of -£3.37
TRAINERS – John Gosden has won the race once from 2 runners with one other placed
AGE – 6/6 aged 4 to 6
WEIGHT – no angle
LAST RACE
6/6 were priced at 12/1 or less
6/6 were placed in the 1st six
6/6 last raced at least 46 days ago
OTHER FACTORS –
4/6 had won at least once in their last 3 runs (17 runners producing a profit of +£10.8Additional
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| 3:30 | KEMPTON | williamhill.com Rosebery Handicap Cl2 1m3f CH4 |
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ROSEBERY HANDICAP – KEMPTON
The last 6 races have been on the all weather so stats for those races only so not a great deal to go on
ODDS – Various
FAVOURITES – 1/6 for a loss of -£2.50
TRAINERS – No angle
AGE – 4 out of 6 aged 4
WEIGHT – 6/6 carried 8st 12lb or more
LAST RACE
3 winners last raced at Lingfield from 23 runners with a further 5 placed
3 winners last raced in a class 1 race from only 10 runners for a decent profit of £16.50, a further 2 were placed, compared to just 3 winners from 79 runners from the rest
OTHER FACTORS
4/6 GB bred
6/6 finished in the 1st four in at least one of their last 3 runs
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Key Doncaster statistic Roger Varian has…
5 Wins form 10 runs P&L 39.03 Strike rate 50%
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