Trends, Statistics And Betting Angles For CH4 Races (Saturday 23.6.2012)
June 22, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
The following betting advice, statistics and trends have been compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe (AJ-racing) and Jonathan Burgess. The aim is to provide you with key statistical trends to help you find profitable angles when betting on the televised races on CH 4 each Saturday. (Refer to our comments for potential bet strategies) We have also provided strategic bet placement advice.
Backing or Dutching
Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying! You can use this dutching calculator to work out your stakes here. Read our tutorial on how to use Dutching to make regular profits here
Odds & Liability When laying
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, Â if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds.
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| 2:30 | ASCOT | Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f BBC1 |
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CHESHAM STAKES – A race for 2 year olds and run over 7 furlongs and from the trends below we are looking for a horse that has run either once or twice, finished in the first 3 in it’s last race which was 16 to 60 days ago and is priced at 8/1 or less
ODDS
13/15 priced at 8/1 or less and these 13 also filled the first 4 places in the odds market
FAVOURITES
5 winning favourites for a loss of -£1.02
TRAINER
Mark Johnston has won the race 3 times from 15 runners with another 2 placed but No runner this year
Aiden O’Brien has won the race 2 times from 14 runners with another 7 placed
John Gosden has only had 3 runners but has 1 winner and another placed
LAST RACE
3 winners last raced at Doncaster from 11 runners with a further 2 placed
3 winners last raced at Newbury from 17 runners with a further 2 placed
15/15 finished in the 1st three
15/15 either won or were beaten less than 3 lengths
14/15 started at odds of 12/1 or less
14/15 ran at 6 furlongs or more
13/15 raced 16 to 60 days ago
13/15 ran in a Class 3 or 4 race the other 2 winners ran in Ireland
OTHER FACTORS
15/15 had finished in the first 3 in at least one of there last 3 starts
12/15 had finished first in at least one of there last 3 starts
15/15 had raced either once or twice in the last 90 days
15/15 had either one or two career starts
13/15 had placed on all their career starts
| 3:05 | ASCOT | Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f BBC1 |
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HARDWICK STAKES – A race for 4 year olds and older over 1 mile and 4 furlongs. We are looking for a runner aged 4,5 or 6 that finished in the 1st six last time out and is in the first six in the betting. Also look closely at horses that ran at either Epsom or Chester last time out that ran in a group race and are trained by Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute or Aiden O’Brien
ODDS
14/15 priced at 12/1 or less
15/15 were in the 1st six of the betting market
FAVOURTIES
4 winning favourites for a loss of -£6.02
TRAINERS
Mark Johnston has had 4 winners from 12 runners and has had a further 3 placed but again no runners
Sir Michael Stoute has had 3 winners from 20 runners with a further 6 placed
Aiden O’Brien has had 2 winners from just 5 runners with another 1 placed
AGE
15/15 aged 4,5 or 6
WEIGHT
9/15 has been won by the top rated horse for a profit of +£18.53, 7 more have been placed too
LAST RACE
7 winners last raced at Epsom from 24 runners with another 7 placed
3 winners last raced at Chester from 14 runners with a further 3 placed
15/15 finished in the 1st six
15/15 ran in a Class 1 race
13/15 ran in a group race
8/15 ran in a group 1 race from 38 runners with a further 7 placed producing a win profit of +£18.91
13/15 raced within the last 45 days
OTHER RACE
15/15 finished in the 1st three in at least one of their last 3 races
14/15 had run within the last 90 days
There have been 28 runners who had won this Class of race before producing 6 winners (21%) for a profit of +£18.83 with a further 9 placed compared to those that of not of 93 runners producing 9 winners (9.6%)
| 3:45 | ASCOT | Diamond Jubilee Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f BBC1 |
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DIAMOND JUBILEE – A Group 1, 6 furlong race. Will Black Caviar follow Frankel’s lead and wow the Ascot crowd, the official figures say she should take this but she makes the market for some nice each way bets where we should be looking for a horse priced 14/1 to 40/1, aged 4 or 6, that has run within the last 90 days and has finished within the first 3 in at least 1 of it’s last 3 races.
ODDS
Plenty of big priced winners here so don’t be afraid to give them a shot, in fact backing every horse priced between 14/1 to 40/1 produces a +£46.00 profit with 7 winners from 124 runners, not many more placed so better off going for win only if you take this route
FAVOURITES
Just 2 winning favourites for a loss of -£2.00
TRAINER
Spread around a bit for winners though Richard Hannon has had 6 placed horses from 14 runners
AGE
15/15 aged 3 to 7. 4 yr olds and 6 yr olds faring best, 5 yr olds for some reason are poor with only 1 winner from 57 runners, compared to 4 yr olds 7/77 and 6 yr olds 4/40
LAST RACE
5 winners last raced at York from 47 runners with a further 4 placed
3 winners last raced at Ascot from 32 runners with a further 9 placed
OTHER FACTORS
Australian Bred horses have done well with 2 winners from 16 runners and a further 4 placed
15/15 had run within the last 90 days
13/15 had finished in the 1st 3 in at least 1 of their last 3 races
| 4:25 | ASCOT | Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f BBC1 |
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WOKINGHAM – a 6 furlong handicap, 15 races covered but 16 winners as there was 1 dead heat.
We are looking for a horse aged 4 to 7, priced 20/1 or less preferably in the 1st 5 in the market, which is not top weight and is rated 87 to 106. We don’t want to be drawn in the middle of the track (12-22) and the horse should have raced over at least 6 furlongs and finished in the first 6 last time out, having not raced at Windsor or Musselburgh.
ODDS
14/16 priced 20/1 or less
11/16 from the first 5 in the market
FAVOURITES
4 winning favourites for a profit of +£8.75
TRAINER
Dandy Nicholls send lots of runners to this race but has only had 1 winner from 45 runners and only 2 more placed
Hughie Morrison has had 3 placed horses from 7 runners with one winning
JOCKEYS
Johnny Murtagh has won the race 3 times from 10 runners with another one placed
Frankie Dettori has also had 10 rides, has won once and placed a further 3 times
AGE
16/16 aged 4 to 7
WEIGHT/OR
No top weight has so far won
16/16 rated 87 to 106
LAST RACE
16/16 last raced at Ascot, Chepstow, Epsom, Doncaster, Goodwood, Lingfield, Rowley mile Newmarket or York
Tracks to avoid are Windsor 0/34, Musselburgh 0/18
16/16 finished in the first 6 last time out
15/16 raced at 6 furlongs or further, only 1 winner last raced over 5 furlongs from 101 runners
OTHER FACTORS
16/16 had finished in the first 4 in at least 1 of their last 3 races
16/16 had run no more than 4 times in the last 90 days
16/16 had placed at least once over 6 furlongs
15/16 had no more than 25 career starts
DRAW
15/16 were either drawn 1 – 11 (10 winners) or 23 – 30 (5 winners) so you don’t really want to be in the middle
| 5:00 | ASCOT | Duke of Edinburgh Handicap Cl2 1m4f BBCi |
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DUKE OF EDINBURGH HANDICAP – 1 mile 4 furlong handicap. We are looking for
Profile – aged 3,4 or 5, it should have won at least 2 races and finished in the 1st 4 in at least 1 of it’s last 4 runs
Last Race ran with in the last 60 days, in a Class 2,3 or 4 race and was priced preferably at 8/1 or less in it’s last race which was over a distance of 1 mile 4 furlongs or less.
Look closely at those trained by Johnston, Stoute & Morrison
Career –
ODDS
A full range of prices up to 28/1
FAVOURITES
Just the one winning favourite for a loss of -£10.00
TRAINER
Sir Michael Stoute has had 3 winners from 13 runners with a further 4 placed
Mark Johnston had 3 winners from 16 runners with 2 more placed
Hughie Morrison has had 2 winners from 2 runners
AGE
15/15 aged 3,4 or 5
No winners aged 6 or over from 51 runners
WEIGHT
No top weighted winner
15/15 carried between 8 stone 6 lb to 9st 9lb
LAST RACE
14/15 started at an SP of 8/1 or less last time out
14/15 raced in a Class 2, 3 or 4 race, the other winner was from Ireland
15/15 raced at a distance of 1 mile 4 furlongs or less
15/15 raced within the last 60 days
13/15 finished in the 1st 6
OTHER FACTORS
15/15 had finished in the first 4 in at least 1 of their last 3 starts
15/15 had won at least 2 races in their career
| 5:35 | ASCOT | Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) Cl2 2m5f159y BBC1 |
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QUEEN ALEXANDRA – a race over 2 miles 5 ½ furlongs where we are looking for a horse aged 4 to 7, that have won at least 1 race in their careers who last raced within the last 45 days in a race that was preferably at Ascot, Chester, Sandown or York and is today priced at 12/1 or less
ODDS
14/15 priced 12/1 or less
FAVOURTIES
4 winning favourites for a loss of -£4.70
TRAINERS
Sir Michael Stoute has had 5 runners, all five have at least placed with 2 winning
AGE
14/15 aged 4 to 7, though 4 & 5 year olds old the edge with 5 wins each
LAST RACE
3 winners last raced at Ascot from 18 runners with a further 5 placed
3 winners last raced at Chester from 16 runners with a further 3 placed
3 winners last raced at York from 15 runners with a further 1 placed
2 winners last raced at Sandown from 18 runners with a further 6 placed
14/15 ran in a Class 1, 2 or 3 race
15/15 ran over a distance between 1 mile 5 ½ furlongs & 2 miles 4 furlongs
14/15 ran within the last 45 days
14/15 ran on the flat last time, only one winner from a horse that ran in a National Hunt race from 49 runners
OTHER FACTORS
15/15 had won at least 1 race in their careers
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Comments
2 Responses to “Trends, Statistics And Betting Angles For CH4 Races (Saturday 23.6.2012)”Speak Your Mind
Tell us what you're thinking...and oh, if you want a pic to show with your comment, go get a gravatar!
All your trend facts are fine but why not stick your neck out and suggest 2/3 named nags? By the time I have looked up the relevant data the races are over! Go on be brave.
The trends are designed as a punters guide to lonterm racing statistics – for class 1, 2 or group races which are live Channel 4 TV every Saturday.