Trends, Statistics And Betting Angles For CH4 Races (Saturday 21.7.2012)
July 20, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
The following FREE horse racing tips, betting advice, statistics and Trainer Trends have been compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe (AJ-racing) and Jonathan Burgess. The aim is to provide you with key statistical trends to help you find profitable angles when betting on the televised races on CH 4 each Saturday. (Refer to our comments for potential bet strategies) We have also provided strategic bet placement advice.
Backing or Dutching
Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying! You can use this dutching calculator to work out your stakes here. Read our tutorial on how to use Dutching to make regular profits here
Odds & Liability When laying
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, Â if you manage to get value on your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds.
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3:10 NWJ Newsells Park Stud Stakes (Registered As The Aphrodite Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f CH4
NMKT – APHRODITE STKS
ODDS
14/15 priced 12/1 or less
FAVOURITES
5 winning favs for a loss of-£2.62
TRAINER
John Gosden has won the race 5 times from 9 runners (No runner)
LAST RACE
6 winners last raced at Haydock from 19 runners with another 5 placed
4 winners last raced at Ascot from 16 runners with another 2 placed
10/15 raced in a Group 2 or 3
3:20 ASC Transformers & Rectifiers Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m BBC2
SUMMER STAKES
ODDS
15/15 priced 12/1 or less
FAVOURITES
Just 2 winning favs for a loss of -£8.62
TRAINER
Richard Hannon has won the race 3 times from 6 runners with another 1 placed
Sir Michael Stoute has yet to win the race from 7 runners but has had 3 placed
LAST RACE
7 winners raced at Ascot from 46 runners with another 10 placed
13/15 ran in a group or listed race
13/15 finished in the first 5
OTHER FACTORS
13/15 drawn in stalls 1-6
13/15 had won at least 1 of their last 3 starts
13/15 had at least 2 career wins
3:25 MAR Betfred Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m6f110y CH4
MARKET RASEN SUMMER PLATE
ODDS
8/12 priced 8/1 or less
FAVOURITES
5 winning favs for a profit of +£7.33
TRAINERS
Peter Bowen has won the race 4 times from 22 runners with another 3 placed
WEIGHT
12/12 carried at least 7lbs lower than the top weight
LAST RACE
31 runners from Market Rasen have yet to produce the winner (5 placed)
14 runners last raced over hurdles and none has won
11/12 were priced at 8/1 or less
10/12 finished in the 1st two
OTHER FACTORS
12/12 had finished in the top 2 in at least 1 of their last 3 races
3:55 ASC Betfair Summer Double International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f BBC2 INTERNATIONAL STAKES
ODDS
13/14 priced between 13/2 & 20/1
FAVOURITES
Just the 1 winning favourite for a loss of -£8.00
AGE
12/14 aged 4 or 5
TRAINER
John Gosden has had 2 winners from 7 runners with a further 2 placed
Dandy Nicholls has had 16 runners and only had 1 placed
Mick Channon has had 10 runners and only had one placed
WEIGHT/OR
13/14 rated 89 to 106
LAST RACE
5 winners last raced at Ascot from 53 runners with a further 8 placed
7 winners last at Newmarket (July) from 95 runners with a further 12 placed
0 winners from Newbury from 25 runners (5 placed though)
0 winners from Newcastle from 16 runners (2 placed)
0 winners from Sandown from 17 runners (4 placed)
Winners priced at 9/4 or less on their last run have produced NO winners from 23 runners (7 placed)
14/14 ran 11-60 days ago
13/14 ran in a Class 1 or 2 race
OTHER FACTORS
14/14 had a top 4 finish in at least 1 of their last 3 runs
14/14 had run 2 to 5 times in the last 90 days
14/14 had run at the track before
14/14 had run in this class of race before
13/14 had placed in this class of race before
11/14 had placed at the track before
4:35 ASC King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes Sponsored By Betfair (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f BBC2
KING GEORGE
ODDS
13/15 priced at 6/1 or less
11/15 from the 1st two in the betting market
FAVOURTIES
8 winning favs for a profit of +£1.81
TRAINER
Saeed Bin Suroor has won the race 4 times from 22 runners with another 6 placed
Sir Michael Stoute has won the race 3 times from 19 runners with another 6 placed
Aiden O’Brien has won the race 3 times from 15 runners with another 1 placed
AGE
12/15 aged 3 or 4
LAST RACE
6 winners last raced at Ascot from 34 runners with a further 9 placed
5 winners last raced at the Curragh from 19 runners with a further 3 placed
15/15 were priced at 6/1 or less on their last run
15/15 finished in the 1st three
OTHER FACTORS
15/15 had finished either 1st or 2nd in at least 1 of their last 3 races
14/15 were (IRE) bred though (USA) & (FR) have a high place percentage. (GB) bred only 1 winner from 30 runners with another 4 placed
12/15 had a Win and Place Strike rate of at least 86%
11/15 had won at the distance
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