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Trends, Statistics And Betting Angles For CH4 Races (Saturday 12.5.2012)

May 11, 2012 by  
Filed under Recent Articles

The following betting advice, statistics and trends have been compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe (AJ-racing) and Jonathan Burgess. The aim is to provide you with key statistical trends to help you find profitable angles when betting on the televised races on CH 4 each Saturday. (Refer to our comments for potential bet strategies) We have also provided strategic bet placement advice.

Backing or Dutching

Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying! You can use this dutching calculator to work out your stakes here. Read our tutorial on how to use Dutching to make regular profits here

Odds & Liability When laying

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this,  here`s a tutorial.

Alternatively,  if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds.

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2:20 ASCOT John Doyle Buckhounds Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f CH4

BUCKHOUND STAKES – only 7 runnings

ODDS

5/7 priced 4/1 or less

6/7 from the first 3 in the market

FAVOURTIES

3 winning favourites for a loss of -£0.90

TRAINER

Sir Michael Stoute has won the race twice from just 3 runners .Consider backing his runners each way

John Gosden is perhaps another to look out for with 2 runners, 1 winner and the other placed. Consider backing his runners each way

AGE

7/7 aged 4 to 6

WEIGHT

7/7 rated 105 or above

LAST RACED

7/7 raced over a distance of between 1m 2furlongs to 1m 4furlongs

3/7 won their last race from just 7 runners for a profit of +£14.48

OTHER FACTORS
7/7 had won at least 1 race in their last 5 runs

3:25 ASCOT  Betfred Victoria Cup (Handicap) Cl2 7f CH4

VICTORIA CUP

ODDS

14/14 priced at 20/1 or less

FAVOURITES

3 winning favourites for a loss of -£0.25

TRAINER

No winning angles with the wins spread around though from a negative point of view Mick Channon has had 10 runners and not one placed & Kevin Ryan has had 14 runners, 0 winners but 2 placed

AGE

14/14 aged 4 to 6

WEIGHT

13/14 carried 9st 1lb or less

14/14 rated 77 to 99

LAST RACE

11/15 finished in the first 5 LTO

OTHER FACTORS

12/14 finished in the first 3 in at least 1 of their last 3 runs

14/14 had run 0-2 times in the last 90 days

Horses worth betting  each way or in a DUTCH bet: BONNIE BRAE, HAWKEYETHENOO, BRAE HILL, NASRI

3:40 HAYDOCK  Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Swinton) Grade 3 Cl1 2m CH4

SWINTON HANDICAP HURDLE

ODDS

15/15 priced 20/1 or less

8/15 from the first 3 in the market for a profit of +£9.50 Give the first three in the market serious attention, potential Dutch bet.

FAVOURTIES

3 winning favourites for a profit of +£2.00

TRAINERS
Nicky Henderson has won the race 2 times from 20 runners with a further 4 placed. Consider backing is runners each way

AGE

14/15 aged 4 to 7 with preference for 4 to 6 yr olds

WEIGHT

15/15 rated 125 to 148

LAST RACE

6 winners last raced at Aintree from 63 runners with a further 12 placed

3 winners last raced at Fairyhouse from 9 runners with a further 2 placed

21 runners have come from either Ascot or Haydock and none have won

Those that last raced in the UK raced in either a Class 1 or 2 race

15/15 raced between 2 miles to 2 miles 1 furlong

15/15 raced within the last 60 days

OTHER FACTORS

14/15 had finished in the first 3 in at least one of their last 3 runs

14/15 had won at least twice over hurdles

Take a look at our Trainer Trends...they have produced a profit of +45.11 points  in the last 8 days

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club. You can contact him here


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