Can you really make a profit backing A.P. McCoy?
September 24, 2010 by Jonathan
Filed under Essential Reading, Horse Racing, Recent Articles
Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics
Horseracing is an entity consumed by statistics inextricably woven into the fabric of the sport in an historical integration. Â When you add opinions that range from one extreme to another the unravelling becomes almost impossible but sometimes within the confusion there is an angle to exploit!
We all use statistics to aid our decision-making processes but especially when faced with complex situations. Â Here are a few quotations that have amused and accompanied my life:
- Torture numbers, and they’ll confess to anything – Gregg Easterbrook.
- 98% of all statistics are made up – Author Unknown
- Statistics are like bikinis. Â What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital – Aaron Levenstein
- Statistics can be made to prove anything, even the truth – Author Unknown
A P McCoy is the greatest jockey in National Hunt history.  So far this season he has ridden 88 winners from 341 rides with a massive strike rate of 26%.  The maths also tells us that he has ridden 253 losers and had we backed all his rides we would be losing £70.80 to a £ level stake.
He is an anomaly in that he has an abnormal affect on the betting market where the zombie masses follow him lemming like. Â Clearly his mounts are over-bet and there is little value in backing him. Â Why would one ever back him knowing that you are procuring a price curtailed? Â Giving a bookmaker an extra commission on top of his overround is tantamount to stupidity!
To gain perspective here is an amalgamation of six of our top jockeys:
| Jockey | Wins | Rides | Strike Rate | Loss to £1 stake | |
| 1 | A P McCoy | 88 | 341 | 26% | £70.80 |
| 2 | Richard Johnson | 63 | 274 | 23% | £10.03 |
| 3 | Jason Maguire | 22 | 123 | 18% | £28.96 |
| 4 | Tom Scudamore | 24 | 216 | 11% | £99.84 |
| 5 | Graham Lee | 24 | 160 | 15% | £14.50 |
| 6 | Paddy Brennan | 24 | 130 | 18% | £7.33 |
| Totals | 245 | 1244 | 20% | £231.46 |
From 1244 rides our best jockeys have won 245 times with a strike rate of less than 20%. Â To date they have ridden 999 losers. Â Obviously there was many occasions where these jockeys raced against each other in the same race directly affecting the statistics but one imagines there is a piece of software somewhere utilising these figures.
A P McCoy will soon be riding a better class of horse as the National Hunt Jump season gathers momentum before clicking into full swing so how will that affect the statistics?  The answer is disturbingly simple – punters will lose even more money!  Take a look at his record over the last five years:
| Year | Winners | Strike Rate | Loss |
| 2009/10 | 195 | 22% | £138.67 |
| 2008/09 | 186 | 22% | £78.29 |
| 2007/08 | 140 | 22% | £129.95 |
| 2006/07 | 184 | 24% | £122.15 |
| 2005/06 | 178 | 21% | £137.57 |
| Totals | 883 | 22% | £606.63 |
At the moment A P McCoy’s strike rate is artificially high and now is a great time to lay his horses.  Using the grid as a reliable guide losses will be sustained between £78.29 and £138.67 to a £ level stake resulting a profit between £7.49 to £67.87.  Clearly our greatest jump jockey creates wealth for bookmakers and for those that like to lay bets there is little risk of big priced winners.
Just one more statistic, here is the five-year record of Tom Scudamore:
| Year | Winners | Strike Rate | Loss |
| 2009/10 | 73 | 13% | £71.69 |
| 2008/09 | 62 | 11% | £238.48 |
| 2007/08 | 51 | 9% | £220.74 |
| 2006/07 | 59 | 10% | £264.83 |
| 2005/06 | 35 | 7% | £253.72 |
| Totals | 280 | 10% | £1,049.46 |
To recap Scudamore has ridden 24 winners at an 11% strike rate losing £99.84 to a £ stake so far this season.  What are the statistics telling you, will he build on last season or revert?  Should he revert there is over £120 profit for that £1 stake waiting to be claimed!
Looking at the figures above one is struck by the continuation.  If one imagines putting a £1,000 in a Building Society what would the interest be compared to laying each of McCoys mounts from now to the end of the season?  Just laying his horses to a £10 stake will almost certainly return a profit of between £75 to £700.
And finally folks can I leave this thought with you?  The average human has one breast and one testicle – Des McHale.  Now that is a statistic it is hard to disagree with!
Paul Moon
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Comments
One Response to “Can you really make a profit backing A.P. McCoy?”Speak Your Mind
Tell us what you're thinking...and oh, if you want a pic to show with your comment, go get a gravatar!
Would like to see or know how to find the following A.P. STATS.
1. Strike rate when riding for for D.Pipe also other trainers.
2. Strike rate in Sellers.
3. Strike rate for 1st race on the card only. and i suppose 1st ride of the day.
Maybe not possible for no 3. but the others may make interesting reading.
Enjoying your mail angles etc, although this is the first time.
Many thanks J