5 Racing Media Fallacies You Should Avoid
February 7, 2013 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
1 “He should win…”
“Luckless lost by just under a length in its last race. He’s carrying several pounds less today. Punters are already counting their winnings. “Great. He’s better off so he should win today.”
Small weight changes can sometimes help, although not all horses will react the same way. So we suggest that it’s better to treat each incident in isolation. And to look at factors that might negate the weight swing. Take into account perhaps a new jockey, certainly the draw, the going, and overall running style at the distance. Look for other relevant factors relevant to that particular race.
If you don’t have time to look at horse form to find selections, let us do it for you instead. The best part is unlike other tipsters, ours tips are very affordable at only £0.24 a day.
2 “It’s good value, mate!”
“Value” is so overused by punters its virtually lost its value!
Definition: The odds available are greater than the expected odds because the market has underestimated that horse’s winning chance.
An example: A value horse is assessed as having a 6/4 chance. The market offers, say, 3/1.
A big price is not needed to offer value. Finding value bets is undoubtedly a successful method over the long term. A common problem is recognising value in a short priced favourite.
Here’s how.
Let’s say Nutless is offered at 1/4 (80% chance) Simply invert the horse’s odds to 4/1, which is a 20% chance. Which would you rather do? Back Nutless at 80%? Or back the rest of the field at 20%? Furthermore, if the race was run 10 times, could Nutless win 8 or more times out of 10?” If yes, then 1/4 is a value bet.
3 “Back him — he had a near miss last time”
Humpty Dumpty and another horse were together at the last fence. Suddenly, Humpty Dunpty fell. “But he looked a certain winner up until then,” numerous (losing) punters moan.
Oh, really?
There are dozens of races every season where the horse that seems to be the winner suddenly loses at the last moment – for any of several reasons. It’s a potential trap to back Humpty Dumpty the next time out simply because of his near miss in the last race.
Always consider the market first. It could be profitable to back only if it is undervalued the next time out. But if it’s priced as if it had won the last race, then it’s best to assess its chances as you would for any other race. By avoiding such overvalued horses altogether, long-term profits are less compromised.
4 “The trainer’s hot…”
Punters tend to be guided by a trainer’s number of winners. Lots of ‘em and they back runners from a ‘hot’ stable for the win. Or lay runners if they think the stable is ‘cold’ and out-of-form. In our opinion, this is too simplistic.
Rather than being over influenced by media hype and the stable’s basic statistics, look closely at a trainer’s recent runners instead.
Recently Nicky Henderson was highlighted by the racing media as being in good form. This results table shows his form for the last 14 days…
Seven winners from 31 runners. If we look closely at the runners, 6 of the winners were favourites. The market expected these to win. Another 10 horses were also sent off at short odds, including 4 favourites (None of these won)
A perfect example of when the form of a yard is taken out of context is when horses with limited ability are backed into short prices, simply because the trainer is in form. And his/her better quality horses are winning.
Of course, Horse A won’t suddenly improve simply because Horses C, D and E are performing well. You don’t back a horse simply because it comes from a ‘hot’ stable. Its short price is probably more determined by ‘stable heat’ than its true chance! But you might be more reassured if your fancied selection is coming from a ‘hot stable’ whose recent runners have been running to their ability.
Ultimately, you still need to assess that a horse has proven to be effective under the conditions of the race under assessment, regardless of what form the stable is in.
It’s also worth bearing in mind that established trainer trends often produce better long-term profits because they are less random than the current form factor.
5 “Back him before the odds drop further…”
Steamers and Drifters… We all know how changing perceptions and opinions of mass-punters form and vary market prices as the bookies respond accordingly.
Blind faith that market movements predict outcomes is seriously misplaced. So blindly following prices movements is not a good idea – unless you’re trading on the betting exchanges, of course. Furthermore, value often comes and goes in just a few seconds. One blink and you’ve missed it.
We recommend watching both on-course and exchange markets to run thoughtful comparisons.
For example: A bookmaker opens a horse at 8/1, and it eventually starts at, say, 7/4.
That could simply be an on-course gamble because the price movement is not shown on Betfair.
Whilst watching, bear in mind two vital judgements:
- Are the bookies offering shorter odds based on little money?
- Do the exchanges indicate the market move is sustained and based on good Weight Of Money?
Hopefully, you now realise that assumptions and blind generalisations about value, stable form, market movements, a last race upset, and form reversal can be misleading at best or delusional at worst, if they are not more closely examined to discern theunderlying concepts involved.
Learn what factors really change the odds on the betting exchanges with this tutorial
Learn how to make realistic profits from betting
Practical, profitable advise direct to your inbox
- Proven techniques I use in my own betting
- Honest reviews on systems and services that are profitable
- Exclusive tips to make your betting easier & more profitable
Copyright secured by Digiprove 2010 Jonathan Burgess
