Essential Guide to Jumps Racing 2010/11 Part 4

“Betting Essentials Master Class Series”

In the PART 4: of this valuable series of  tutorials we`ll be looking at National Hunt > Jockey Statistics.  The core aim being to help you make better informed decisions when betting on this unique sport.

PART 4: National Hunt > Jockey statistics

The jumping game has some real legends and these brave pilots often spend months on the side-lines due to nasty falls. Two that instantly spring to mind are Tony McCoy and Richard Johnson. Both these guys are very consistent providing punters with plenty of winner’s week, in week out. Unfortunately the majority of the betting public back their mounts blindly with out checking anything else, especially when they partner the favourite.

This factor alone means although there`s plenty of winning bets, there`s very limited value blindly backing a horse simply because these guys are steering. Instead you`ll be on the receiving end of some hefty loses. A quick look at the Racingpost.com Jockey statistics table confirms this, having said that the owners of these horses make a fortune; with Tony McCoy alone winning nearly £3 million in price money last season.

Therefore it’s safe to assume the general public are over betting on the top jockeys causing their mounts to falsely shorten in the betting market. Bookies know through mass client profiling and years of collated statistics that the betting habits of the punting masses rarely change.

This kind of proves that high strike rates are not necessarily linked long-term profits from backing horses. Strike rates are a misunderstood aspect of betting and the numbers that really matter are the odds. Obtaining value on each bet you place combined with a moderate strike rate is much more likely to bring the bread home. A much better approach would be to look out for Jockeys who make a level stakes profit such as Wayne Hutchinson. Your core aim should be to identify under what conditions they produce the goods.

A good place to start is identify which trainers certain Jockeys have the most winners with, and at what odds. Be wary if a decent profit was achieved because of handful of big priced winners, these tend to skew the figures. Certain jockeys can even have an edge over their rivals at different courses simply because they have more experience riding at that particular track; either way it pays to do some digging. If you don’t have the time to do the digging, then you can use Betting schools trends analysis reports, produced by Mark Foley. These are excellent short cuts to the stats that matter

Jockey pointers…

1. When you see a small stable book the services of a top jockey they don’t retain, have a punt. Its likely an indication that a horse is expected to win at a value price.

2. Look for jockeys which make a level stakes profit with all their mounts. There aren’t many at all and you may have to endure some losing runs but the stats above prove it is possible to make money selectively following certain jockeys.

3. Identify profitable Jockey Trainer combinations. Use the Racingpost.com trainer data mining tools to take a closer look at any trainer`s methods and statistics.  You`ll be surprised at the profitable angles you can uncover. These maybe specific to a particular course, month or type of horse. Remember “OVERALL STATISTICS” can be misleading and profitable angles are usually only uncovered by digging deeper.

In PART 5: of my guide to National Hunt (Jumps racing) we`ll look at…

Favourites statitsics and how the variations in racecourse configuration affect the results of jumps racing ==>>Read Part 5 Now!<<==

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