Cheltenham Festival Preview Tips & Advice

All this week we will be posting tips and betting advice for the Cheltenham Festival. Each day we will cover three key races offering our advice on horses  we think will do particularly well.

All this information will be posted on this page around 12.30pm each morning of the Cheltenham Festival, so don’t forget to check each day.

Bookies Offers

Remember to look around for the bests  Bookmakers offers before you bet. Paddy Power are cashback on a Sprinter Sacre win, Boylesports are refunding second place finishers in the first four races, and Sky Bet are paying five places on the Supreme.

Essential Betting Tools

Use this DUTCHING CALCULATOR to work out the maths on your DUTCH bets.

Day 1: Tuesday 13th of March

1.30 William Hill Supreme Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £56,950 CH4  Good 2m110y

An open looking race with plenty of horses showing the level of forM required to win this. No favourite has won in the last seven years and the ten-year statistics show that it pays to focus on the top five in the betting market.

Supreme Novice Hurdle Key Trends

8 of the last 12 winners were Irish Trained

12 of the last 14 winners won last time out

9 of the last 11 winners were 5 or 6 year olds

The favourite hasn’t won the race since 2004

Market: 6 of the last 10 winners came from the top four of the betting.

Selections:

STEPS TO FREEDOM

CINDERS AND ASHES (WON) at 10/1 traded at 14.00 on Betfair, and small £13 DUTCH bet split on these 4 runners returned £22.46 on the winner

MIDNIGHT GAME

GALILEOS CHOICE

Bet advice: Split your single stake across these four horses in a Dutch bet. At the current odds if you placed a £12 Dutch bet you would get £31.86 return and a £19.86 profit if any of these four horses won. Use this DUTCHING CALCULATOR to work out the maths on your DUTCH bets.

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2.05 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £74,035 CH4 Good 2m

With only 6 horses going to post this race looks likely to be between the brilliant SPRINTER SACRE and AL FEROF who had SPRINTER SACRE more than five lengths back in third when winning the Supreme novice hurdle last season. Having said that SPRINTER SACRE is now a year older and looks very progressive, so it’s a tough call either way.

Arkle Challenge Trophy Key Trends

Only 1 favourite has won in the last 15 years

5 out of the last 7 winners were 7 year olds

23 of the last 25 winners were placed last time out

Bet advice: either back SPRINTER SACRE and AL FEROF in a ducth bet (small profit). Or the value play is to back AL FEROF each way or for a straight win.

Result: SPRINTER SACRE WON

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3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £210,715 CH4
Good 2m110y

HURRICANE FLY looks set to retain his crown and should be considered a Festival banker bet! however, he is likely to go off at a very short price, representing poor value for backers, so with this in mind –  Binocular could be next best, with ZARKANDER and ROCK ON RUBY possible each-way or DUTCH bet options should HURRICAINE FLY under perform.

Champion Hurdle Key Trends

8 of the last 13 winners were trained in Ireland

23 of the last 28 winners had won at Cheltenham before

The last five year old to win was in 1985

7 of the last 12 winners were placed in the race the previous year

6 favourites have won in the last 12 years

Bet advice:

Hurricane Fly win only bet (poor value)

alternatively…..

Split a single stake to DUTCH these 3

BINOCULAR

ROCK ON RUBY  WON at 11/1

ZARKANDER

At the current odds if you placed a £10 Dutch bet you would get £27.71 return and a £17.71  profit if any of these 3 horses won.

Other horses worth a look on Tuesday.

2.40 JLT Speciality Handicap Chase

QUANTITIVEEASING & HOLD ON JUILIO both lost

4.00 Cross Country Chase

SIZZING AUSTRALIA each way -Came 4th

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Day 2: Wednesday 14th of March

2.05 Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As Baring Bingham Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4  Good 2m5f

Six of the last 10 winners have won a graded hurdle. Horses which have won 50% of their hurdle races do particularly well, with only 1 of the last 10 winners not fitting this trend. This race has been dominated by 5-6 year olds in the last 1o years. Irish Trainers have won five of the last nine renewals of this race. Willie Mullins has 3 horses in this race – MONKSLAND,MAKE YOUR MARK and FELIX YOUNGER and could make it 3 wins from 5. SIMONSIG looks a superb horse but in  a race this competive his odds look pretty short and although he won well last time out he didn`t beat much, with most of the runners open to improvement this looks a competitive race

Neptune Investment Management Novice Hurdle Key Trends

Only 1 favourite has won in the last 1o years

5 or 6 year olds have won the race 19 of the last 20 renewals

24 of the last 27 winners have been in the first 6 in the betting

27 of the last 28 winners were first or second last time out

Bet advice: Willie Mullins has targeted this race and his intention is clear with no less than 3 progresive runners.

Place a dutch bet on:

MONKSLAND 3RD

SOUS LES CIEUX

MAKE YOUR MARK

A £15 Dutch bet will return £35.92 for a profit of £20.92 if any of these horses win at the current Betfair odds.

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2.40 RSA Chase (Grade 1) (CLASS 1) (5yo+) CH4  Good 3m110y

GRAND CRUS looks set to cofirm his superioty over BOBS WORTH in this race and we fancy JOIN TOGETHER to run into a place.

RSA Chase Key Trends

7 year olds have won 10 of the last 12 renewals

3 favourites have won in the last 12 years

19 of the last 22 winners were first season chasers

22 of the last 24 winners had finished first or second last time out

Bet advice: GRAND CRUS looks to be a worthy favourite, although he offers little in the way of value pre race. Its worth bearing in mind although he is a strong Traveller – he was held up in his last 5 races so there may be extra value asking for slightly better odds in play on Betfair.

result: GRAND CRUS ran a poor race and was beaten by BOBS WORTH -bizzare from reversal as GRAN CRUS beat BOBS WORTH by 15 lengths last time they met.

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3.20 Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £182,240 CH4 Good 2m.

SIZING EUROPE looks like a festival banker bet, but we saw what happened to HURRICAIN FLY yesterday, so nothig is guaranteed in racing. Having said that he should see off Big Zeb – based on their recent dual. We think that KUATO STONE could run into a place with Ruby on board.

Queen Mother Champion Chase Key Trends

Only 4 favourites have won in the last 15 years

10 of the last 13 winners have started at 5/1 or less

20 of the last 27 winners had been placed at the Festival in the past

All of the last 13 Arkle winners went on to be placed in this race the following year

Bet advice: Theres no value in backing SIZING EUROPE so have a little on KAUTO STONE to place only on Betfair.

result:  KAUTO STONE fell at the 1st fence.

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Day 3: Thursday 15th of March

1.30 Jewson Novices´ Chase (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices´ Chase) Grade 2 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £51,255 CH4 Good To Soft 2m4f

This looks an open race with plenty of horse with decent course form competing.  The much talked about PEDDLARS CROSS looks to have a good chance, however he has had complicated preparation for Cheltenham, so we can`t be ultra confide, therefore saver bets on other horses could be a wise play. SIR DE CHAMPS looks very decent and SOLIX simply can`t be ignored with the HENDERSON GERAGHTY partnership flying at present.

Bet advice: Split your stake in a dutch bet across…

PEDDLARS CROSS

FOR NON STOP 3rd

SIR DE CHAMPS WON at SP 3/1 available at 4/1 on Betfair  earlier in the day – we managed to get 4/1

SOLIX

A £15 DUTCH BET at the current betfair odds will return £23.44 for a profit of £8.44 if any of the above runners wins.

Use this DUTCHING CALCULATOR to work out the maths on your DUTCH bets.

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2.40 Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Steeple Chase) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £148,070 CH4
Good To Soft 2m5f

This looks a difficult puzzle to unravel and is ultra competitive with the first four home in last year´s race competing again. There is a form line between several of these and its hard to know which horse will prevail, and for that reason we going to advise you split your stake across several runners.

Bet advice: split your stake in a dutch bet across…

SOMERSBY

NOBLE PRINCE

MERDIMIT Just touched off into 3rd by ALBERTAS RUN and the winner RIVERSIDE THEATRE. Disappointing as a close finish and this nearly went in to land the bet.

POQUELIN

A £17 DUTCH bet returns a £41.32 for a £24.31 if any of these 4 win.

3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £148,070 CH4
Good To Soft 3m

We simply can`t oppose BIG BUCK’S as he has dominated since 2009. Proving he`s still top of his game having annihilated some of today’s rivals in January – Dynaste, Mourad and Five Dream in the Cleeve Hurdle.

Bet advice: Back OSCAR WHISKEY each way, and have a place only bet on Betfair, on DYNASTE

OSCAR WHISKEY ran a stinker and didn`t stay up the hill, and although BIG BUCKS was always going to win the fact that two 20/1 shots occupied 2nd and 3rd shows how unpredictable races at the festival can be.

Day 4: Friday 16th of March

BOOKIE NEWS:

sky bet all paying out on four places in the Triumph hurdle and six places on the County hurdle.

1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo) Winner £56,950 CH4 Good 2m1f

This race looks very competitive and this is reflected in the odds on Betfair, i.e. the first four in the market  priced – 7.00, 8.00, 8.02, 8.02 and 8.6.

Horse we think will run well are……….

GRUMETI

SHADOW CATCHER

PEARL SWAN

NO BET race for us though.

2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices´ Hurdle Race) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) Winner £56,950 CH4 Good 3m

This looks a great race with a short priced favourite at the head of the market BOSTON BOB.

Bet advice: Split your stake between BOSTON BOB and BRINDISI BREEZE.

3.20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) Winner £284,750 CH4
Good 3m2f110y

The finale of the week see`s two old rivals take each other on again LONG RUN  & KAUTO STAR. Personally I fancy KAUTO STAR to just edge it but that’s probably my heart ruling my head. In all honesty , it will be a tough call to say which one will prevail, so with this in mind we advise placing a DUCTH BET on KAUTO STAR and LONG RUN also a small place only bet on BURTON PORT.

 

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