Thursday, November 14th, 2024

Cheltenham Festival Day 3 – Thursday 17th March

March 16, 2011 by  
Filed under Recent Articles

My Day 3  Cheltenham review is based around long term festival trends and statistics. The key emphasis will be on laying favourites in races where the stats indicate favourites have a poor long-term record.

Remember I will be posting the latest tips and advice  for the following days races on the false favourites blog home page each evening of the Cheltenham festival around 7.00pm.

2.05 The Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

The faq`s

The Favourites don’t do particularly well in this race. Only 2 favourites have won in the last 15 years.

  • 5 year-olds have a poor record with just 1 winner in 36 years.
  • The last 5 winners were aged 7 +.
  • Only 2 favourites have won  in the last 16 years .
  • The last 7 winners were all 10/1 and above

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

Year Horse Age Trainer Odds
2010 Buena Vista 9 D E Pipe 16/1
2009 Kayf Aramis 7 Miss V Williams 16/1
2008 Ballyfitz 8 N A Twiston-Davies 18/1
2007 Oscar Park 8 D W P Arbuthnot 14/1
2006 Kadoun 9 M J P O’Brien 50/1
2005 Oulart 6 D T Hughes 10/1
2004 Creon 9 J O’Neill 50/1
2003 Inching Closer 6 J O’Neill 6/1F
2002 Freetown 6 L Lungo 20/1
2000 Rubhahunish 9 N A Twiston-Davies 8/1
1999 Generosa 6 J L Hassett 12/1
1998 Unsinkable Boxer 9 M C Pipe 5/2
1997 Pharanear 7 D Nicholson 14/1
1996 Great Easeby 6 W Storey 7/1
1995 Miracle Man 7 C Weedon 9/2F
1994 Tindari 6 J M Jefferson 20/1
1993 Fissure Seal 7 H de Bromhead 14/1
1992 My View 8 M Purcell 33/1
1991 Danny Connors 7 J O’Neill 9/1
1990 Henry Mann 7 S Christian 20/1
1989 Rogers Princess 7 M Tate 8/1JF

Bet advice

Lay the favourite

Odds & Liability

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this  here`s a tutorial

Staking & Bet execution

No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until the market has formed properly, (usually by mid morning on each day of the races), although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play asking for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.

Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

4.00 The Byrne Group Plate

The faq`s

Again Favourites don`t do particularly well in this race. Just 1 favourite has won since 1981

  • Horse bred in France have won 6 of the lat 11 runnings of this race and (placed 2nd in the other 5)
  • Only 1 winning favourite since 1981
  • An Irish trained horse hasen`t won this race sincewinner since 1951.
  • Martin Pipe won this race 1999-2003 with his son David also winning it in 2010 – Venetia Williams N.J.Henderson are other trainers to note
  • Horses which have run at the festival before dominate – with 17 out of the last 19 winers doing so
Year Horse Age Trainer Odds
2010 Great Endeavour 6 D E Pipe 18/1
2009 Something Wells 8 Miss V Williams 33/1
2008 Mister McGoldrick 11 Mrs S J Smith 66/1
2007 Idole First 8 Miss V Williams 12/1
2006 Non So 8 N J Henderson 14/1
2005 Liberthine 6 N J Henderson 25/1
2004 Tikram 7 G Moore 12/1
2003 Young Spartacus 10 H D Daly 16/1
2002 Blowing Wind 9 M C Pipe 25/1
2000 Dark Stranger 9 M C Pipe 14/1
1999 Majadou 5 M C Pipe 7/4F
1998 Super Coin 10 R Lee 7/1
1997 Terao 11 M C Pipe 20/1
1996 Old Bridge 8 A Turnell 14/1
1995 Kadi 6 D Nicholson 11/2
1994 Elfast 11 J Webber 8/1

Bet advice

Lay the favourite

Odds & Liability

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often get  avalue lay on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this  here`s a tutorial

Staking & Bet execution

No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until te market has formed properly, usually by mid morning on each day the races, although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play ask for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.

Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queuing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in-play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club. You can contact him here


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