Cheltenham Festival Day 3 – Thursday 17th March
March 16, 2011 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
My Day 3Â Cheltenham review is based around long term festival trends and statistics. The key emphasis will be on laying favourites in races where the stats indicate favourites have a poor long-term record.
Remember I will be posting the latest tips and advice for the following days races on the false favourites blog home page each evening of the Cheltenham festival around 7.00pm.
2.05 The Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)
The faq`s
The Favourites don’t do particularly well in this race. Only 2 favourites have won in the last 15 years.
- 5 year-olds have a poor record with just 1 winner in 36 years.
- The last 5 winners were aged 7 +.
- Only 2 favourites have won in the last 16 years .
- The last 7 winners were all 10/1 and above
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Year | Horse | Age | Trainer | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | Buena Vista | 9 | D E Pipe | 16/1 |
2009 | Kayf Aramis | 7 | Miss V Williams | 16/1 |
2008 | Ballyfitz | 8 | N A Twiston-Davies | 18/1 |
2007 | Oscar Park | 8 | D W P Arbuthnot | 14/1 |
2006 | Kadoun | 9 | M J P O’Brien | 50/1 |
2005 | Oulart | 6 | D T Hughes | 10/1 |
2004 | Creon | 9 | J O’Neill | 50/1 |
2003 | Inching Closer | 6 | J O’Neill | 6/1F |
2002 | Freetown | 6 | L Lungo | 20/1 |
2000 | Rubhahunish | 9 | N A Twiston-Davies | 8/1 |
1999 | Generosa | 6 | J L Hassett | 12/1 |
1998 | Unsinkable Boxer | 9 | M C Pipe | 5/2 |
1997 | Pharanear | 7 | D Nicholson | 14/1 |
1996 | Great Easeby | 6 | W Storey | 7/1 |
1995 | Miracle Man | 7 | C Weedon | 9/2F |
1994 | Tindari | 6 | J M Jefferson | 20/1 |
1993 | Fissure Seal | 7 | H de Bromhead | 14/1 |
1992 | My View | 8 | M Purcell | 33/1 |
1991 | Danny Connors | 7 | J O’Neill | 9/1 |
1990 | Henry Mann | 7 | S Christian | 20/1 |
1989 | Rogers Princess | 7 | M Tate | 8/1JF |
Bet advice
Lay the favourite
Odds & Liability
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this here`s a tutorial
Staking & Bet execution
No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until the market has formed properly, (usually by mid morning on each day of the races), although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play asking for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.
Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.
Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here
4.00 The Byrne Group Plate
The faq`s
Again Favourites don`t do particularly well in this race. Just 1 favourite has won since 1981
- Horse bred in France have won 6 of the lat 11 runnings of this race and (placed 2nd in the other 5)
- Only 1 winning favourite since 1981
- An Irish trained horse hasen`t won this race sincewinner since 1951.
- Martin Pipe won this race 1999-2003 with his son David also winning it in 2010 – Venetia Williams N.J.Henderson are other trainers to note
- Horses which have run at the festival before dominate – with 17 out of the last 19 winers doing so
Year | Horse | Age | Trainer | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | Great Endeavour | 6 | D E Pipe | 18/1 |
2009 | Something Wells | 8 | Miss V Williams | 33/1 |
2008 | Mister McGoldrick | 11 | Mrs S J Smith | 66/1 |
2007 | Idole First | 8 | Miss V Williams | 12/1 |
2006 | Non So | 8 | N J Henderson | 14/1 |
2005 | Liberthine | 6 | N J Henderson | 25/1 |
2004 | Tikram | 7 | G Moore | 12/1 |
2003 | Young Spartacus | 10 | H D Daly | 16/1 |
2002 | Blowing Wind | 9 | M C Pipe | 25/1 |
2000 | Dark Stranger | 9 | M C Pipe | 14/1 |
1999 | Majadou | 5 | M C Pipe | 7/4F |
1998 | Super Coin | 10 | R Lee | 7/1 |
1997 | Terao | 11 | M C Pipe | 20/1 |
1996 | Old Bridge | 8 | A Turnell | 14/1 |
1995 | Kadi | 6 | D Nicholson | 11/2 |
1994 | Elfast | 11 | J Webber | 8/1 |
Bet advice
Lay the favourite
Odds & Liability
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often get avalue lay on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this here`s a tutorial
Staking & Bet execution
No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until te market has formed properly, usually by mid morning on each day the races, although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play ask for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.
Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queuing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in-play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.
Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here
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