Cheltenham Festival Day 1- Tuesday 15th March
March 11, 2011 by Jonathan
Filed under Horse Racing, Recent Articles
Remember I will be posting the latest tips and advice for the following days races on the false favourites blog home page each evening of the Cheltenham festival around 7.00pm.
1.30 Stan James Supreme Novices Hurdle Gr1
The faq`s
The Favourites don’t do particularly well in this race. Only 6 favourites have won in the last 21 years. Only 3 of the last 15 horses to start at 3/1 or shorter have won.
| Year | Horse | Age | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Menorah | 5 | P J Hobbs | 12/1 |
| 2009 | Go Native | 6 | N Meade | 12/1 |
| 2008 | Captain Cee Bee | 7 | E P Harty | 17/2 |
| 2007 | Ebaziyan | 6 | W P Mullins | 40/1 |
| 2006 | Noland | 5 | P F Nicholls | 6/1 |
| 2005 | Arcalis | 5 | J Howard Johnson | 20/1 |
| 2004 | Brave Inca | 6 | C A Murphy | 7/2F |
| 2003 | Back In Front | 6 | E J O’Grady | 3/1F |
| 2002 | Like-A-Butterfly | 8 | C Roche | 7/4F |
| 2000 | Sausalito Bay | 6 | N Meade | 14/1 |
| 1999 | Hors La Loi III | 4 | M C Pipe | 9/2 |
| 1998 | French Ballerina | 5 | P J Flynn | 10/1 |
| 1997 | Shadow Leader | 6 | C R Egerton | 5/1 |
| 1996 | Indefence | 5 | Mrs J Pitman | 25/1 |
| 1995 | Tourist Attraction | 6 | W P Mullins | 25/1 |
| 1994 | Arctic Kinsman | 6 | N A Twiston-Davies | 50/1 |
| 1993 | Montelado | 6 | P J Flynn | 5/1 |
| 1992 | Flown | 5 | N J Henderson | 13/2 |
| 1991 | Destriero | 5 | A Geraghty | 6/1 |
| 1990 | Forest Sun | 5 | G B Balding | 7/4F |
| 1989 | Sondrio | 8 | M C Pipe | 25/1 |
Bet advice
Lay the favourite
Odds & Liability
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip to reduce exposure, if your not sure how to do this here`s a tutorial
Staking & Bet execution
No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until the market has formed properly, (usually by mid morning on each day of the races), although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play asking for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.5 and so on.
Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queuing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.
Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here
2.05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
The faq`s
Again Favourites don`t do particularly well in this race.
- Only 2 winning favourites since 1992, with the last 20 winners started at no bigger than 11/1.
- 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles.
- 5 of the last 10 winners (Tiutchev, Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop, My Way De Solzen and Tidal Bay) entered the race as the highest-rated hurdler in the line up.
| Year | Horse | Age | Trainer | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Sizing Europe | 8 | H De Bromhead | 6/1 |
| 2009 | Forpadydeplasterer | 7 | T Cooper | 8/1 |
| 2008 | Tidal Bay | 7 | J Howard Johnson | 6/1 |
| 2007 | My Way de Solzen | 7 | A King | 7/2 |
| 2006 | Voy Por Ustedes | 5 | A King | 15/2 |
| 2005 | Contraband | 7 | M C Pipe | 7/1 |
| 2004 | Well Chief | 5 | M C Pipe | 9/1 |
| 2003 | Azertyuiop | 6 | P F Nicholls | 5/4F |
| 2002 | Moscow Flyer | 8 | Mrs J Harrington | 11/2 |
| 2000 | Tiutchev | 7 | N J Henderson | 8/1 |
| 1999 | Flagship Uberalles | 4 | P F Nicholls | 11/1 |
| 1998 | Champleve | 5 | M C Pipe | 13/2 |
| 1997 | Or Royal | 6 | M C Pipe | 11/2 |
| 1996 | Ventana Canyon | 5 | E J O’Grady | 7/1 |
| 1995 | Klairon Davis | 6 | A L T Moore | 7/2F |
| 1994 | Nakir | 6 | S Christian | 9/1 |
| 1993 | Travado | 7 | N J Henderson | 5/1 |
| 1992 | Young Pokey | 7 | O Sherwood | 4/1 |
| 1991 | Remittance Man | 7 | N J Henderson | 85/40F |
| 1990 | Comandante | 8 | J T Gifford | 9/2 |
| 1989 | Waterloo Boy | 6 | D Nicholson | 20/1 |
Bet advice
Lay the favourite
Odds & Liability
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often get avalue lay on over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip to reduce exposure, if your not sure how to do this here`s a tutorial
Staking & Bet execution
No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until te market has formed properly, usually by mid morning on each day the races, although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play ask for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.5 and so on.
Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queuing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in-play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.
Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here
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Comments
4 Responses to “Cheltenham Festival Day 1- Tuesday 15th March”Speak Your Mind
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Hi; you say don’t lay above 5/2 on Betfair. Is this a rule you always use, or are there exceptions, or different rules for different codes? I currently use 5.2 for the all weather, 5.8 for the jumps and 6.4 for the flat turf, but am considering making it 5.2 everywhere to make them all even and to avoid some of the larger payouts. Would like to hear any comments you have. Thanks.
sorry; that should have been 5.2 not 5/2
Hi Dave
Obviously we can`t always get the price we want. Favourites racing in competitive races can often trade at bigger odds and although they probably won`t win we need to negate any loss if they do. There are a couple of ways you can do this, either set a maxium liability, or lay in-play asking for lower odds than before the off.
I`m not a fan of laying anything much bigger than 5.2 really and most of the time I would only lay at 4.00 and below. I know everyone has different comfort levels, but damage limitation really is the key when laying.
Hope this helps.
Wihtout wishing to sound too obvious or patronising, the aim of the game is to minimise your losses and protect your bank. It is better not to place a lay bet (and therefore lose no money!) than to place a lay bet at a price that you are not comfortable with. I am with Jonathan on this one and very rarely lay over 4.00 and always limit my liability if laying at Betfair SP. Hope this helps, but it really is the key to keeping your bank intact – if in doubt, don’t place the bet – walk away and live to bet another day!
Good luck to everybody at the Festival – probably the best 4 days laying market in the calendar, but watch out when some of those favourites are priced too high! Try betting without the favourite instead of laying it at a high price, backing the two or three other horses that you think might beat it – just an idea!