Can You Make A Profit Using Horse Ratings?

What are Horse ratings?

Horse ratings should be used to identify the strongest contenders in a race, basically horses which have got the best chance based on their form. In general the better rated horses in each race outperform their lower rated rivals. Although this fact alone doesn’t automatically mean you can make regular profits  blindly backing the top-rated horse in each race.

A lot of form guides provide their own unique ability ratings and these can provide you with a good starting point, nevertheless most are flawed because they conclude with an average rating which tends to be based around the horses best recent performances.

Just because a horse has performed well and gained a decent rating in the past there is no guarantee that that level of performance will be repeated in the future. Horses go in and out of form all the time therefore ratings are affecting by various factors.

Below we have included what should be considered the most relevant factors to look at when assessing horse ability ratings for a race.

Top-Rated horses

You would think that the top-rated horses in each race would produce the most profits, if if only! Unfortunately the punting masses over bet top-rated horses so often betting on them returns a loss. Obviously this is not always the case and if you identify a top-rated horse which isn’t being over bet by the market, then it`s well worth backing.

Field size

Most punters aren’t aware of how the number of runners can affect horse performance. A lot of betting systems are based around specific field sizes, this is no accident and based on long-term racing statistics which clearly show field size affects the results of horse races dramatically.

The Grand National is an obvious example of an unpredictable large field race. Conversely small field races (2-5 runners) are often run at a muddling pace which means strong favourites can be turned over due to the race not been run to suit their style of running.

Bearing this in mind the best betting propositions are usually races of 7-12 runners. Obviously each horse has its preferred conditions and it’s definitely worth checking what those preferences are when form reading a race.

Some animals will display a small field preference whilst others can only win when faced with a larger field.

Contrary to popular belief these patterns are relatively easy to spot, simply note down when a horse won and placed close to the winner and what the field size was. You’ll be surprised at how quickly you can recognise a horses preferences.

Speed ratings

Speed ratings provide clues to the fast the horse in each race, however these should not be taken as a complete interpretation of the horses speed, especially if they were achieved under different circumstances than the current race being assessed.

For example the top-rated horse may have achieved its best speed rating on a straight six furlong course and today’s race course is undulating with sweeping bends.

Again, this is where an average speed rating could be deemed rather useless. In our opinion it is much better to look for fast speed ratings which have been achieved under similar conditions to the current race, these need to be fairly consistent and more importantly recent.

Remember speed figures are specific to a surface. In other words there is no guarantee that a horse which earns a top speed rating on turf will be able to reproduce that figure either poly track or fiber-sand all-weather surfaces.

To get the best out of the speed ratings focus on improving horses. The distance of the race also has a significant bearing because if the trip is different the rating is less reliable.

If you can identify a progressive horse with consistent speed ratings over course, distance and going then you`ve found a decent betting proposition. As we are always saying it pays to be a race specialist, bearing this in mind it’s definitely worth focusing on proven performers on the All-weather surfaces.

The good thing about taking this approach is its much less labour-intensive than looking at turf racing, because there are only 4 All-weather courses in the UK. Another positive aspect of this approach is it will help you to gain an intimate knowledge of a specific group of horses.

Ratings and distance

As we discussed above the distance of a race affects speed ratings because if the trip is different the rating is less reliable. For example in National Hunt Chase races a horse may display fairly consistent speed ratings at distances of 2 mile 4 furlongs, inconsistent ratings at 2 mile 6 furlongs, and much slower ratings over 3 miles.

The same theory applies to flat racing speed ratings with sprint races of five and six furlongs often being more unreliable than middle-distance races.

Handicap Ratings

Handicap`s are very often seen as open races, with the winner likely to come from one of several horses. However, it’s worth bearing in mind that favourites and top-rated horses usually go off at much bigger odds in the type of contests; therefore these animals represent much better value for backers.

Racing statistics show that top-rated horses can actually produce a profit when going off at single figure odds in races of 8-14 runners, but before you rush into backing these animals you need to assess and put into context the level of competition they face. To gain a better understanding of handicap`s make sure to read our article “handicap ratings explained” we also advise you read “handicaps versus non handicaps”

 Key points to consider when assessing handicap races with 8-14 runners:

• is the top-rated horse the best in the race, or joint top-rated
• what the ratings margin between the top 3 horse’s is like
• is there potential to make a profit from a forecast or dutch bet by combining a few of your selections

Resources:

Most widely available for reading guides provide horse ability ratings. The Racing-Post, Time Form and Sporting-life all provide their own ratings, here at the false favourites blog we use the excellent horse form ratings provided by Horseracingbase.com

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