Back & Lay tips for Saturday`s Big Races (21.01.2012)
January 20, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
Anyone who reads the racing media knows that the biggest prize money races attract the most Press coverage. Most of these Graded & listed races are televised on Channel 4 every Saturday.
Ultimately, this mass coverage means there is a lot of hype surrounding certain horses. Sometimes it is justified and reflected in the price, however this is not always the case and in many instances you can find value bets by either, opposing false favourites or backing two or three fancied runners against the market leaders.
Taking these factors into consideration we have devised the “Saturday Plan”. Every Friday we will post Saturday’s televised races, highlighting key statistical angles for both backers and layers.
Please accept our apologies for any changes as there has been some re-shuffle of races from when they were declared on Thursday. Everything is now upto date.
2:05 ASC 1942 Was A Vintage Year Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle) Grade 2 Cl1 3m CH4 OK
- No clear trends, no bet
2:35 ASC Bet Mobile At BetVictor.com Holloway´s Hurdle (Limited Handicap) Grade 2 Cl1 2m3f110y CH4 OK
- Only 1 favourite has won in the last 6 runnings of this race
- 4 different trainers have won the race. David Pipe has won it three times – 2010, 2009 and 2008
- 7 different horse being tipped in the Racing Post Press challenge
Bet advice
Lay the favourite, Refer to staking advice below for lay bets!
3:10 ASC 25th Anniversary of The Victor Chandler Chase (Registered As Clarence House Chase) Grade 1 Cl1 2m1f CH4
- 3 favourites have won 3 of the last five runnings of this race
- 3 different trainers have won the last five runnings, however Paul Nicholls has dominated this race in the last three years, winning 3 times with the legendary Master Minded 2011-2009 and once with Twist Magic in 2010.
Bet advice
Their is a strong favourite bias and a clear trainer trend which can’t be ignored. However with Master Minded not racing its best to play it safe and place a Dutch Bet on – Finian’s Rainbow, AL Ferof and Sumersby.
3:45 ASC BetVictor.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y CH4
- Only 1 favourites has won in the last 9 runnings of the race
- 8 different trainers have taken this, therefore there are no clear trainer trends
- 7 of the last 9 winners were priced at 8/1 or shorter, although the winner went off @ 22/1 in 2011
bet advice
Favourites have a poor record in this race, and this looks a competitive 2m 5f Chase, therefore we recommend laying the favourite. Refer to staking advice below for lay bets!
1:10 HAY Betfair. Don´t Settle For Less Novices´ Chase (Registered As The Altcar Novices´OK
- 3 favourites have won the last 4 runnings of this
- 2010 Diamond Harry 8/11f, 20007 My Way De Solzen 1/6f and 2006 Don’t Be Shy 8/11f
- 4 different trainers have won this race
Bet advice
In recent years there seemed to be a strong favourite bias, although this years renewal doesn’t look all that good. Consider backing the favourite.
1.45 HAY StanJames.com Champion Hurdle Trial Grade 2 Cl1 2m CH4OK
- 3 favourites have won the last 8 runnings. Short prices at the top end of the market do well, with the last eight winners priced up -11/4, 7/1, 11/8F, 5/1,/5F, 5/4F, 9/4 and 15/8
- 8 different trainers have taken this, so no clear trainer angle. Donald McCain has the best record in hurdles and is 19 from 79 – 24% strike rate which = +9.58. Alan King won this last year and saddles Smad Place & Torphichen
- 5 and 6 year old horses have won the race 5 times . 6-year-olds 3 times 5-year-olds twice
bet advice
Can’t see there being any shock result here, and the market will be a pretty good indicator which way this will play out. Celestial Halo will probably be a very short priced favourite, which offfers backers little value. No bet race for us!
3:30 HAY Peter Marsh Chase (Limited Handicap) Grade 2 Cl1 3m CH4OK
- Only 1 favourite has won this in the last 8 runnings
- 7 different trainers have won this race. Donald Mc Cain twice – 2009 Cloudy lane 6/1 and 2006 Ebony Light 33/1.
Bet advice
A competitive Cl1 handicap chase, which only 1 favourite has won in the last 8 runnings and with going declared HEAVY – we suggest you Lay the Favourite. Refer to staking advice below for lay bets!
Odds & Liability When laying
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds
Backing or Dutching
Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying!
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Comments
4 Responses to “Back & Lay tips for Saturday`s Big Races (21.01.2012)”Speak Your Mind
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Well done Jonathan, 5 out 5 nice profit thank you. Bought your False Favourites a few months ago and haven’t had time to digest it fully yet. Had some spare time this afternoon and followed your advice to the letter. Thanks again.
Dennis
Excellent advice Jonathan. I’m very impressed with your prediction for the first 3 home in the 3:10. Very well done.
if you can put your betting systems in the form of of a bot , it will make it much easier to follow, coz most people dont have time to follow or spend that much time to look up selections.
Cheers,
Sidarth
A tipping service from your side will also be a huge success…