Back, Lay and Dutch bet tips for Saturday 10th March (TV races)
March 9, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
| 2:05 | SAN | European Breeders´ Fund paddypower.com “National Hunt” Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f CH4 |
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Novices Handicap Hurdle Final
ODDS
12/12 priced 20/1 0r less
3 winning Favs for a profit of £1
TRAINER
No trainer has won the race more than once
AGE – no angle
WEIGHT – no angle
LAST RACE
All winners last raced in a Class 3 or 4 race
All finished in the first 5
Raced 21 – 75 days ago
OTHER
12/12 had at least a top 2 finish in their last 3 runs
12/12 had run 3 to 5 times over hurdles
Bet advice: This is a competitive large field handicap hurdle. Not a strong race for favourites with only one winning from the last 10 runnings. LAY MERRY KING We also recommend that you DON`T LAY ABOVE 4.00 on Betfair. If you can`t get close to this then consider placing an in-play bet. Don`t forget to select “Keep odds in-play radio button on your Betfair bet slip” Failing to do this will cancel your bet when the race goes in play “Refer to the bottom of this page for guidance regarding lay betting safely”
| 3:15 | SAN | Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y CH4 |
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IMPERIAL CUP
ODDS
15/15 priced 20/1 or less
7 winning favourites from 15 for a HEALTHY PROFIT of £15.08
TRAINER
Martin and David Pipe have won this 6 times, targeting the race for the Cheltenham Bonus
Phillip Hobbs although he has had only one winner from 14 runners has had a further 5 placed so his horses need a second look too
Venetia Williams has had 12 runners, Paul Nicholls 10, both with no success
AGE
14/15 aged 4 to 7
WEIGHT
14/15 carried 11st 1lb or less
LAST RACE
9 winners last raced at either Cheltenham (3/15), Ascot (2/17),Leopardstown (2/8), Sandown 2/15)
Only 1 winner for runners from Kempton (0/37) & Newbury (1/41) from 88 runners
Bet advice: Favourites do particularly well in this race 7-15. Pay special attention to runners from David pipe and Philip Hobbs, although having said that this looks a trappy race with plenty of horses in with a chance, so a NO BET race for us.
| 3:50 | SAN | DBS/E.B.F. Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race Final (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y CH4 |
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EBF NATIONAL HUNT FLAT
ODDS
3/15 for Favourites for a loss of -£2.00
TRAINER
Nicky Henderson has won the race 3 times and had a further 2 horses placed from 17 runners
Alan King has had eleven runners in the race and not won but has had 6 placed so his horses also worth a second look
AGE
13/13 aged 4, 5 or 6
WEIGHT – N/A
LAST RACE
12/13 had been placed in the first three last time out
10/13 had won last time out
OTHER
No French Breds have won the race and only one placed
12/13 had won at least one of their last 3 races
Bet advice: Not a particularly strong race favourites 3-15. Nicky Henderson and Alan King runners do particularly well in bumpers, however bumpers are difficult to assess accurately as all the horses are just starting their national hunt careers and could be anything, for that reason another no bet race for us.
| 3:30 | WOW | William Hill Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y CH4 |
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LINCOLN TRIAL
ODDS
2/15 for favourites and a loss of -£7.00
TRAINER
Gay Kellaway & Richard Hannon have both won the race twice. Also take note of any Marco Botti runners has he has only run 3, 1 winning and the other 2 also placed
Richard Fahey has so far had 11 runners without a win (2 placed)
AGE
14/15 aged 4, 5 or 6
WEIGHT
No top weight has won yet
LAST RACE
7 winners raced at Lingfield last time out from 63 runners
3 winners raced at Wolverhampton last time out from 45 runners
15/15 raced in a Class 2,3 or 4 race last time out
14/15 Ran in a Handicap Last time out, only 1 winner from 48 runners ran in a non-hcp last time
OTHER
14/15 had run at least 6 times in their careers
Bet advice:Favourites have a poor record in this race 2-15. There are plenty of hosres contesting this race proven in class 2 and over the course & distance. NAZREEF looks out classed , therefore we recomend laying him. We also recomend that you DON`T LAY ABOVE 4.00 on Betfair. If you can`t get close to this then consider placing an in-play bet. Don`t forget to select “Keep odds in-play radio button on your Betfair bet slip” Failing tod o this will cancel your bet when the race goes in play”
Odds & Liability When laying
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, Â if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds
Backing or Dutching
Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying.
The Race-Specialist Pro Lay Betting system is now only… £26.99 was (£39.99)
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