Trends, Statistics And Betting Angles For CH4 Races (Saturday 2.6.2012)
June 1, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
The following betting advice, statistics and trends have been compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe (AJ-racing) and Jonathan Burgess. The aim is to provide you with key statistical trends to help you find profitable angles when betting on the televised races on CH 4 each Saturday. (Refer to our comments for potential bet strategies) We have also provided strategic bet placement advice.
Backing or Dutching
Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying! You can use this dutching calculator to work out your stakes here. Read our tutorial on how to use Dutching to make regular profits here
Odds & Liability When laying
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, Â if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds.
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2:35 HAY Timeform Jury Stakes (Registered As The John of Gaunt Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 7f CH4
JOHN GAUNT STAKES
ODDS
14/15 priced 6/1 or less
14/15 were in the 1st three in the market
FAVOURITES
TRAINER
Those with runners not much of an angle, though Saeed Bin Suroor has had 5 runners with only 1 placed
AGE
11/15 aged 4 or 5
6 yr olds are poor, only 1 win from 28 runners
WEIGHT/OR
Those with a rating were rated at least 106
14/15 were top rated or within 10 lbs of the top rated
LAST RACE
6 winners last raced at York from 29 runners with a further 5 placed (produces a +£18.83 profit)
3 winners last raced at Newbury from 9 runners with a further one placed
12/15 ran in a Group or listed race
11/15 finished In the first 3
14/15 raced in the last 45 days
OTHER FACTORS
14/15 had finished in the first 3 in at least one of their last 3 races
14/15 had run at least once in a Class 1 race
2:40 EPS Diamond Jubilee Coronation Cup (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f10y BBC1 CORONATION CUP
ODDS
15/15 priced 8/1 or less
14/15 from the top 4 in the market
FAVOURITES
5 winning favs for a loss of -£4.81
TRAINERS
AIDEN O’BRIEN has won the race 5 times in the last 7 years from 13 runners with a further 3 placed producing a WIN profit of +£9.08
Sir Michael Stoute has won the race 3 times from 8 runners
AGE
15/15 aged 4,5 or 6
WEIGHT/OR
15/15 carried 9 stone
LAST RACE
5 Winners last raced at the Curragh from 14 runners with a further 2 placed
3 winners last raced at Chester from 12 runners with a further 1 placed
3 winners last raced at Newmarket from 25 runners with a further 5 placed
2 winners last raced at York from 10 runners with a further 2 placed
13/15 were priced at 6/1 or lower with 9 of them being favourite
13/15 finished in the 1st 3 last time out
13/15 ran in a GROUP race
11/15 ran within the last 45 days
OTHER FACTORS
11 horses had won at the track previously producing 2 winners with a further 4 placed so 55% Win and Placed
15 horses has won in this Class of race ONCE before producing 7 winners and a further 3 placed so 67% Win and Placed
| 3:10 | HAY | Grosvenor Casinos Pinnacle Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m3f200y CH4 |
|---|
PINNACLE STAKES – 9 runnings
ODDS
8/9 priced 6/1 or less
8/9 from the 1st three in the betting, in fact backing the 2nd and 3rd favourite produces a profit of +£12.00 – 19 runners with 6 winners & another 3 placed
FAVOURITES
2 winning favs for a loss of -£5.20
TRAINER
Nobody has had more than 1 winner yet but Saeed Bin Suroor and Roger Varian so far have 100% win records
AGE
8/9 aged 4
LAST RACE
9/9 raced in a Class 1,2 or 3 race
9/9 raced over a distance of 1m 2f to 1m 5 ½ furlongs
8/9 finished in the 1st three
2 winners last raced at Chester from 3 runners
As of yet no winners from Newmarket from 11 runners though 4 placed
5 winners last raced 181-365 days ago from just 16 runners with another 5 placed too
OTHER FACTORS
8/9 had won at least 1 of their last 3 starts
8/9 had run in a class 1 race before
6/9 had placed in a Class 1 race before
3:15 EPS Investec Specialist Bank “Dash” (Handicap) Cl2 5f BBC1
THE DASH
ODDS
A wide range of winners from 11/4 to 33/1
FAVOURITES
3/15 for a loss of -£4.25
TRAINER
Dandy Nicholls loves to send runners to this race – 42 runners have produced 5 winners with a further 6 placed
Tim Easterby is a little more restrained having sent down 4 runners, 1 has won and 2 have placed
Stuart Williams is another to keep on your side with 7 runners producing 2 winners and a further 2 placed
AGE
10/15 aged 6,7 or 8
WEIGHT/OR
10/15 were from the top 5 in the weights
LAST RACE
15/15 ran on the turf last time out
17 runners came from a group race last time and have yet to win
25 runners won their last race and they too have yet to win
10/15 finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th
12/15 raced within the last 25 days
23 runners last raced at Haydock and have yet to produce a winner
20 runners came from Newmarket and also have yet to win
OTHER FACTORS
15/15 had finished In the first 3 in at least one of their last 3 runs
15/15 had run in this Class of race before
14/15 had won at the distance
13/15 had placed at least 6 times in their career
3:40 HAY Blue Square Sandy Lane Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f CH4
SANDY LANE STAKES
ODDS
13/15 priced at 8/1 or less
14/15 from the 1st five in the betting
FAVOURITES
6 winning favourites for a loss of -£0.33
TRAINER
Barry Hills has won the race twice from 9 runners with a further 2 placed so look out for his son’s Charlie’s runners
Mark Johnston (7) and Richard Hannon (11) have had 18 runners between them and have yet to have a winner, though 6 have been placed
WEIGHT/OR
15/15 rated at least 93
LAST RACE
4 winners last raced at Newbury from 23 runners with another 8 placed
3 winners last raced at Newmarket from 22 runners with another 4 placed
2 winners last raced at Chester from 10 runners with another 2 placed
Only 7 runners have come from a Group 1 race but 3 have won for a profit of +£11.38
10/15 finished in the 1st 3 last time out
12/15 ran within the last 25 days
OTHER FACTORS
14/15 had won at least 1 of their last 5 races
15/15 had run no more than 3 times in the last 90 days
14/15 had won at the distance
15/15 had placed at the distance
4:00 EPS Investec Derby (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f10y BBC1
DERBY
ODDS
13/15 priced 8/1 or less
11/15 priced 6/1 or less, produces 46 runners and if backing all these a profit of +£8.75, a further 13 placed too
14/15 from the TOP 4 in the betting – backing all these runners produces a +£18.25 Profit
FAVOURITES
4 winning favourites for a loss of -£2.50
TRAINER
Sir Michael Stoute has won the race 3 times from 14 runners with a further 4 placed (50% Win & Pl Strike Rate) though no runners today
Aiden O’Brien has won the race twice from 48 runners with a further 8 placed so not a great SR there
LAST RACE
5 winners last raced at York from 42 runners with a further 8 placed
3 winners last raced at Leopardstown from 24 runners with a further 6 placed
2 winners last came from Chester from 28 runners
2 winners last came from Newmarket from 35 runners
15/15 raced in a group or listed race
14/15 raced within 30 days
OTHER FACTORS
Look closely at horses that have won a Class 1 race before
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