Trends, Statistics And Betting Angles For CH4 Races (Saturday 12.5.2012)
May 11, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
The following betting advice, statistics and trends have been compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe (AJ-racing) and Jonathan Burgess. The aim is to provide you with key statistical trends to help you find profitable angles when betting on the televised races on CH 4 each Saturday. (Refer to our comments for potential bet strategies) We have also provided strategic bet placement advice.
Backing or Dutching
Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying! You can use this dutching calculator to work out your stakes here. Read our tutorial on how to use Dutching to make regular profits here
Odds & Liability When laying
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, Â if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds.
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2:20 ASCOT John Doyle Buckhounds Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f CH4
BUCKHOUND STAKES – only 7 runnings
ODDS
5/7 priced 4/1 or less
6/7 from the first 3 in the market
FAVOURTIES
3 winning favourites for a loss of -£0.90
TRAINER
Sir Michael Stoute has won the race twice from just 3 runners .Consider backing his runners each way
John Gosden is perhaps another to look out for with 2 runners, 1 winner and the other placed. Consider backing his runners each way
AGE
7/7 aged 4 to 6
WEIGHT
7/7 rated 105 or above
LAST RACED
7/7 raced over a distance of between 1m 2furlongs to 1m 4furlongs
3/7 won their last race from just 7 runners for a profit of +£14.48
OTHER FACTORS
7/7 had won at least 1 race in their last 5 runs
3:25 ASCOTÂ Betfred Victoria Cup (Handicap) Cl2 7f CH4
VICTORIA CUP
ODDS
14/14 priced at 20/1 or less
FAVOURITES
3 winning favourites for a loss of -£0.25
TRAINER
No winning angles with the wins spread around though from a negative point of view Mick Channon has had 10 runners and not one placed & Kevin Ryan has had 14 runners, 0 winners but 2 placed
AGE
14/14 aged 4 to 6
WEIGHT
13/14 carried 9st 1lb or less
14/14 rated 77 to 99
LAST RACE
11/15 finished in the first 5 LTO
OTHER FACTORS
12/14 finished in the first 3 in at least 1 of their last 3 runs
14/14 had run 0-2 times in the last 90 days
Horses worth betting each way or in a DUTCH bet: BONNIE BRAE, HAWKEYETHENOO, BRAE HILL, NASRI
3:40 HAYDOCKÂ Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Swinton) Grade 3 Cl1 2m CH4
SWINTON HANDICAP HURDLE
ODDS
15/15 priced 20/1 or less
8/15 from the first 3 in the market for a profit of +£9.50 Give the first three in the market serious attention, potential Dutch bet.
FAVOURTIES
3 winning favourites for a profit of +£2.00
TRAINERS
Nicky Henderson has won the race 2 times from 20 runners with a further 4 placed. Consider backing is runners each way
AGE
14/15 aged 4 to 7 with preference for 4 to 6 yr olds
WEIGHT
15/15 rated 125 to 148
LAST RACE
6 winners last raced at Aintree from 63 runners with a further 12 placed
3 winners last raced at Fairyhouse from 9 runners with a further 2 placed
21 runners have come from either Ascot or Haydock and none have won
Those that last raced in the UK raced in either a Class 1 or 2 race
15/15 raced between 2 miles to 2 miles 1 furlong
15/15 raced within the last 60 days
OTHER FACTORS
14/15 had finished in the first 3 in at least one of their last 3 runs
14/15 had won at least twice over hurdles
Take a look at our Trainer Trends...they have produced a profit of +45.11 points in the last 8 days
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