Back, Lay & Dutch tips for Todays Races at KEMPTON & NEWCASTLE
February 25, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
2:00KEMPTONDownload William Hill From The App-Store Adonis Juvenile Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m CH4
BETTING
7 winning favourites from 15 races 1998 -2011 for a profit of +£1.21. 15/15 priced 8/1 or less
Trainers
4 winners for Nicky Henderson – 2010, 2008, 2007, 1999.
2 winners for Paul Nicholls 2009, 2011.
2 winners each for Alan King 2005, 2004 and F.Doumen 2000, 2001
WEIGHT
n/a
AGE
n/a
Last race
All winners finished in the first 4 in their last race or were making their hurdling debut
Bet Advice: There is a strong favourite bias for this race, and three trainers whose runners are definitely worth paying close attention to, especially Nicky Henderson, who was won the race 4 times. We recommend Placing a DUTCH bet on -UNE ARTISTE and SADDLERS RISK.
| 3:05 | KEMPTOM | Racing Plus Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 Cl1 3m CH |
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BETTING
4 winning favourites for a PROFIT of +£3.33. 15/15 priced 14/1 or less
Trainers
Phillip Hobbs – 4 winners and a further 4 placed from 16 runners
WEIGHT
14/15 officially rated 141 to 152
AGE
no real angle
Last race
5 winners last raced at Cheltenham 3 winners last raced at Kempton. 4/15 last raced in a Class 1 or Class 2 race
Other
15/15 had finished in the first 2 at least once in their last 3 starts. Richard Johnson has won the race 5 times
Bet advice: There is a very strong trainer Jockey bias in this race, which can`t be ignored. The Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson combination have won this race 3 times between them, Hobbs has won the race 4 times in total, and Johnson has also won with H.Daley & M.Pipe. Place a DUTCH bet on > PLANET OF SOUND, NACARAT and MICHEAL LE BON.
| 3:25 | NEWCASTLE | Betfred Eider (Handicap Chase) Cl2 4m1f CH4 |
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BETTING
2/12 for favourites for a loss of -£3.00. 10/12 for horses priced 12/1 or less
Trainers
No stand out trainer in terms of winners but look out for Ferdy Murphy horses as he has had 5 placed from 10 runners ( 1 winner) Phillip Hobbs and Nigel Twiston Davies both have had 3 placed from just 4 runners
WEIGHT
10/12 carried 10 st 11lb or more
 AGE
All winners aged 7-11. 7-9 preferred
Last race
11/12 ran in the last 30 days
Other
11/12 had been in the first two in at least one of their last 3 races
Bet advice: Favourites have a poor record 2-12, although that could change so we recommend placing a DUTCH bet on MORGAN BEE, EYE SQUARE, MISTER MARKER and PORTRAIT KING. Negus De Beaumont is Ferdy Murphy`s runner who is coming back inform, and 5 of his last 6 races have been at Newcastle 1,3, PU, PU, 2. Portrait King has improved for the step up to marathon trips. Mister Marker and Morgan Be are both stayers who should be in with a chance.
| 3:40KEMwilliamhill.com Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m CH4 |
BETTING
3/13 favourites for a LOSS of -£8.55
Trainers
2 wins each for Henderson/Nicholls & King. Alan King has also has 2 more placed so that’s 2 wins & 2 places from just 5 runners
WEIGHT
N/a
AGE
Age range 4-7
last 6 yrs won by 4 & 5 yr olds
Last race
All winners ran within the last 60 days
Bet advice: GRUMETI is the best and highest rated hurdler in this line up. Keys looks second to him. Dodging Bullets and Terre Du Vent will be well schooled at home and both have decent Flat form, but neither has anything in the book regarding Jumps, and therefore can`t be considered 1st time out against 2 progressive hurdlers. BACK GRUMETI or alternatively DUTCH GRUMETI and KEYS
Odds & Liability When laying
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, Â if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds
Backing or Dutching
Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying!
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Comments
2 Responses to “Back, Lay & Dutch tips for Todays Races at KEMPTON & NEWCASTLE”Speak Your Mind
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I cant believe anybody would select a horse from the T.Vaughan stable with the form it is in.No winners since god were a lad.
Hi Ian
All the more reason to look for a big privced winner, which will be around the corner. This trainer has made a profit for the last few years in Febuary UNDER CERTAIN CONDITIONS – in the last 14 days he`s had 3 horses placed @ 4.8 – 5.21 and 1.53
keep an eye on Speed Steed @ 4.15 PLUMPTON today this has a good chance of placing
Cheers Jon