Back, Lay & Dutch tips for Saturday the 18th Febuary (TV races)
February 17, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
ASCOT 1.50 Sodexo Prestige Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1  3m CH4                                                                                                                                                   Â
BETTING – 8/15 for Favourites for a profit of £0.78
Winners – 14/15 priced at 9/2 or less. 13/15 priced 3/1 or less
Trainers – Nicky Henderson has an impressive record with his chasers at Ascot 12-35 for a 34% strike rate -B.GERAGHTY is 11-28 for a 39% strike rate in chases. Henderson has won this race 3 times from 6 runners, winning the last 2 runnings . Paul Nicholls also does well with his chasers at Ascot 11 – 56 for a 20% strike rate. Ruby Walsh is 7 – 22 in chases =32% strike rate. Jonjo O’Neill has a 100% record with 2 wins from 2 runners 2008-2003
WEIGHT – N/A
AGE – 15/15 Aged 5 to 7
Last race – 13/15 won their last race
Other – All winners had won at least once in the last 3 races
Looking for – Horses aged 5 to 7 who are 3/1 or less in the betting & won their last race
Bet advice: There is a very strong favourite bias for this race and although there are several key contenders, Nicky Henderson’s – BOBSWORTH is a true class one performer who has won five of his last six races. MOSSLEY is another Henderson entry.
Paul Nicholls runners are also worth taking seriously. He enters JOIN TOGETHER, not yet won a class 1, but looks a decent prospect, and -SILVINIACO CONTI who came second behind GRAND CRUS at Kempton on December 26, therefore warrants serious respect
Place a Dutch bet on BOBSWORTH & SILVINIACO CONTI
HAYDOCK 2.10 Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Prestige Novices´ Hurdle Race) Grade 2 Cl1 3m CH4                                                                                                                        Â
BETTING – 5/11 FAVS have won for a loss of -£2.78. All winners 16/1 or less
Trainers – Paul Nicholls has 2 winners from only 3 runners. Alan King has had 4 placed from just 6 runners
WEIGHT – NA
AGE – All winners aged 5 to 7, but 5 and 6 yr olds readily preferred 10/11
Last race – All those that had run ran within the last 45 days and finished in the 1st 3
LOOKING FOR – A 5 or 6 yr old that is priced 16/1 or less that last raced within 45 days and finished in the 1st 3
Bet advice: there seems to be a strong favourite bias for this race, Although with six last time out winners in the lineup, this looks a competitive race. Throw in a few unexposed types and this looks tricky to assess accurately. The strongest contenders look to be; THE REAL MILAN, THE HILLOFFUISNEACH, AMBION WOOD and FIGHTING FLYN.
Conclusion – A no bet race for us
HAYDOCK 2.45 Betfred Goals Galore Hurdle (Registered As The Rendlesham Hurdle Race) Grade 2 Cl1 3m                                                                                                                                            Â
BETTING – 6/15 favourites have won for a profit of £0.24
All Winners less than 12/1
Trainers – Look out for French raiders as Doumen has won the race 3 times
WEIGHT – NA
AGE Range: Â 6-11 with 6-7 yr olds slightly preferred (9 winners)
Last race: 4 winners last ran at Ascot from just 14 runners, 1 more placed too 3 winners last raced at Haydock from just 12 runners, 1 more placed too  2 winners last raced at Cheltenham from 24 runners, 8 more placed too All winners lasr raced in a Class 1 or 2 race LTO
LOOKING FORÂ Â Maybe concentrate on 6-7 yr olds who last raced at Ascot, Haydock or Cheltenham
Bet advice: Again another race with a strong favourite bias. CROSS KENNON won this race last year so has to be respected – his Haydock form reads 2-9 over the distance 1-2 over the course. RESTLESS HARRY Form looks a little deciving and he is 0-7 over the distance, but that looks down to the fact he was outclassed by strong opposition on his last two races beaten into 3rd and 4th by BIG BUCKS.
FEATHERBED LANE looks a decent horse, however the horse as no course or distance form and RAINDEER DIPPIN beat him by 14 lengths at Aintree on 3rd Dec 2011. His trainer has a decent record in hurdles here 9-40 -23% strike rate +12.25 points. BENNY BE GOOD Came second in a class one at the course in November 2011, another horse whose form is a little deceiving, although he is up in grade so needs to be at the top of his game to compete. RAINDEER DIPPIN`s Trainer Donald McCain has an excellent record in hurdles at the course 22-83 -27% strike rate +14 points, but he will need to improve to beat some of these.
Bet advice LAY BENNY BE GOOD
ASCOT 3.00 Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110f CH4                                                                                                                          Â
BETTING – 8/13 favourites have won for a profit of £6.14
Winners – 9/13 priced at less than 9/4
Trainers – Paul Nicholls,Nicky Richards (same horse) & Nicky Henderson have won the race twice
WEIGHT – Top rated has won 6/13 for a profit of £1.04, the last few years it has been won by horses rated at least 165
AGE – 15/15 aged 7-12. 7 or 8 yr olds preferred with 8 winners from 28 runners with another 4 placed
Last race – 5 winners last raced at Kempton from 18 runners (2 placed too)                                          3 winners last raced at Cheltenham from 17 runners with a further 4 placed                                      2 winners last raced at Ascot from 7 runners with another placed
Looking for – Horse priced 9/4 or less or the favourite, preferably aged 7 or 8 who last raced at Kempton, Cheltenham or Ascot
Bet advice: Once again there is a strong favourite bias in this race 8/13. Riverside Theatre and Kauto Stone are both Proven grade 1 performers. KAUTO STONE`S 2nd behind SIZZING EUROPE looks solid form and given the horse is only 6 there is plenty of improvement left to come. RIVERSIDE THEATRE beat GAUVIAN by 10 lengths at Ascot on 19 February 2011. Nicky Henderson’s runners perform extremely well after an extended break so fitness is not a worry for this horse.
GAUVIAN beat top performer SUMMERSBY in December but then fell when re-opposing that rival next time at Ascot. All things considered GAUVIAN`S jumping looks suspect as he has fallen twice in his last three runs. MEDERMIT is a top chaser who commands respect after bold show on his lat run at Cheltenham.
Conclusion – Place a dutch bet on KAUTO STONE, RIVERSIDE THEATRE and MEDERMIT? Alternatively if RIVERSIDE THEATRE goes of at short odds simply back that horse for the win.
HAYDOCK 3.20 Betfred Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 Cl1 3m4f CH4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
BETTING – Just the 1 winning favourite for a loss of -£15.50
Winners – 12/14 winners at 12/1 or less
Trainers – Lucinda Russell has won the race for the last 2 yrs with Silver By Nature
WEIGHT – Top weights have won 3 times. The rest have been won by horses less than 11st 1lb. Nothing between so looking for either a classy animal or one with a low weight
AGE – All winners aged 7-11. Ages 7-9 have won 11/14
Last race – 4 Winners last ran at Chepstow. 2 Winners last ran at Wetherby
Bet advice: Favourites have a very poor record in this race, therefore we recommend laying the SP favourite. Please be aware that the favourites odds are likely to quite high as this looks a competitive long distance chase. REFER to laying advice at the bottom of this page!
WINCANTON 3.45 Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m CH4
BETTING – 5/14 Favourites have won for a loss of -£4.97
Winners – 12/14 winners priced 6/1 or less. 11/14 winners priced 9/2 or less
Trainers – Paul Nicholls has won the race twice with a further 4 placed. Alan King has won the race twice in the last 3 yrs
WEIGHT – N/A
AGE – All winners aged 4-9. Last 7 all aged 5 or 6
Last race – 4 winners last raced at Sandown, a further 5 were placed. 3 winners last raced at Cheltenham, 1 more placed too
Bet advice: Again there is a strong favourite bias in this race. The two class horses in this race are BINOCULAR and CELESTIAL HALO. We recommend you split your stake and place the Dutch bet on these two.
Odds & Liability When laying
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, Â if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds
Backing or Dutching
Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying!
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