Back & Lay tips For Cheltenham Saturday 28th January

RACES SHOWN ON CH 4 Saturday 28 January 2012

2:05	CHE	Murphy Group Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 Cl1 2m5f CH4
2:35	CHE	Argento Chase (Registered As The Cotswold Steeple Chase) Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f110y CH4
Â
3:10	CHE	Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As Classic Novices´ Hurdle Race) Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f110y CH4
Â
3:40	CHE	Cleeve Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 3m CH4

 

2.05 Cheltenham

• Only 2 favourites have won in the last 9 runnings of this race 2011 – 2002
• 8-year-olds have a good record, winning five times. No 6 year old has won this in the last 9 years
• 7 different trainers have won this. Bob Butler has won this twice with the Sawyer in 2010 – 2009. There are no strong trainer trends to note, apart from – Colin Tizzard has recorded 8 win from 52 runs in chases for a 15% strike rate = +51.50
• Declared horses with a good course and distance record include – (Tamarinbleu  distance 2-6 course 1-3) (Poquelin distance 3-8 course 5-12) (Woolcome Folly distance 0-0  course 2-5 )

bet advice

A decent class 1 handicap Chase being contested by several quality horses which are proven over the course and distance. Only 2 favourites have won  in the last 9 runnings and a 6 year old has never won this. Lay AERIAL. Refer to the bottom of this page for low risk bet execution and staking strategies.

 

2.35 Cheltenham

• No favourites have won
•  in the last 9 runnings of this race
• 8 different trainers have won this between 2002 – 2011. Paul Nicholls has won the last two runnings 2011 Neptune, launch 11/2 & Taranis 2011 – 16/1. In today’s race he saddles the Minack and Tidal Bay.
• Declared horses with a good course and distance record – (Midnight Chase distance 2-3 course4-7)  (Diamond Harry distance 1-1 course 2-4) (Time for Rupert distance1-2 course 3-6) (Tidal Bay distance 0-4 course 3-9)

bet advice

Another competitive looking Chase featuring several horses proven over course and distance. No favourites have won in the last nine runnings of this race. Anything can happen in a three-mile chase, especially one this competitive. Time For Rupert, Diamond Harry and Midnight Chase look likely to fight this out– Lay CAPTAIN CHRIS.

Refer to the bottom of this page for low risk bet execution and staking strategies.

 

3.10 Cheltenham

• 3 favourites have won the last six runnings of this race. Only one horse bigger than 7/2 has won during that period.
• Five different trainers have taken the last six runnings of this. Nicky Henderson’s won it twice – 2011 Bobs Worth 7/2 & 2008 Aigle D`Or 7/4F
• 6-year-olds have won 4 of the last 6 runnings; 5-year-olds twice

bet advice

Favourites and fancied runners at the top of the market have a good record in this race, therefore we recommend placing a Dutch bet on BROADBACK BOB, KNIGHT PASS and POLISKY at SP time.

3.40 Cheltenham

• 3 favourites have won the last seven runnings of this race
• 7 different trainers have taken this. So no strong trainer bias
• declared horses with a good course and distance record. (Big Bucks  5-6 course)

Bet advice

This race is all about one horse Big Bucks , he’s 13 wins from 13 races and 5 from 6 at the course, if he`s at his best he should be very hard to beat. Although the odds will be ridiculously short so probably a no bet race for favourite backers.

Odds & Liability When laying

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive, it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip to reduce your lay bet exposure, if your not sure how to do this,  here`s a tutorial.

Laying in play

the very nature of racing means that horse odds lengthen and shorten during a race. To take advantage of this there is a technique you can employ to reduce/minimise your lay bet liability. We recommend you use this on horses trading above 5.0 on the betting exchanges.

For example: If a horse is trading at 6.00 place in play bet for  4.8 or 5.2 or similar. Just remember to tick the “keep bets in-play radio button on your Betfair slip” or else your bet will be cancelled when the race goes in-play.

Alternatively,  if you manage to get value on your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds

Get a FREE bet here

Backing or Dutching

Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying!

 The Race-Specialist Pro Lay Betting system is now only… £26.99 was (£39.99)

Learn how to make realistic profits from betting

Practical, profitable advise direct to your inbox

Proven techniques I use in my own betting Honest reviews on systems and services that are profitable Exclusive tips to make your betting easier & more profitable

Name : Email : 22 subscribers

Get your hands on one of the most successful laying systems online click on the image below...

Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2010 Jonathan Burgess