Back & Lay tips for Saturday`s Races+Race-Specialist For ONLY £26.99
January 13, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
Anyone who reads the racing media knows that the biggest prize money races attract the most Press coverage. Most of these Graded & listed races are televised on Channel 4 every Saturday.
Ultimately, this mass coverage means there is a lot of hype surrounding certain horses. Sometimes it is justified and reflected in the price, however this is not always the case and in many instances you can find value bets by either, opposing false favourites or backing two or three fancied runners against the market leaders.
Taking these factors into consideration we have devised the “Saturday Plan”. Every Friday we will post Saturday’s televised races, highlighting key statistical angles for both backers and layers.
Televised races for Saturday 14th of January 2012
2:00 WAR Betfred The Bonus King Handicap Chase (for the Edward Courage Cup) Cl3 2m CH4
2:15 KEM williamhill.com Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl4 3m CH4
2:30 WAR Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f CH4
2:50 KEM William Hill Lanzarote Hurdle Handicap Cl2 2m5f CH4
3:05 WAR Neptune Investment Management Leamington Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m5f CH4
3:20 KEM William Hill – Home of Betting Handicap Chase Cl3 2m4f110y CH4
3:40 WAR Betfred Classic Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 Cl1 3m5f CH4
Kempton 2.15
- No favourites have won this in the last 6 years 2005 to 2011. Therefore we would suggest that it’s worth taking on the favourite in a competitive 3m h`cap chase
- 6 different trainers have won this in the last 6 years. Nicky Henderson has 25 – 70 wins in chases – 36% strike rate =+17.25 profit. However most of those are in non-handicap chases his record in h`cap chases at Kempton is poor. Gary More has an 18% strike rate in chases nine wins from 50 runs =+17.31 profit
- Only 2 of the winners have been in single figure odds.
Bet advice
Consider laying the favourite
Odds & Liability
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds
Kempton 2.50
- Only 2 favourites have won this in the last nine years
- 6 of the last nine winners were 10/1 or less
- 6 years olds have an edge, and they have won half of the 28 races in its history
- 9 different trainers have won this in the last 9 years, so there is no strong trainer bias
Bet advice
This looks a trappy race from a statistical point of view and the only clear trends are age and the odds – nothing over 20/1 has won this in the last 14 years and the best odds to focus on are 10/1 and below. Lay the favourite
Odds & Liability
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial
Kempton 3.20
- 4 favourites have won this in 9 years. However only one favourite has won it in the last five years.
- 8 different trainers have won this since 2002. Venetia Williams has won this twice 2002 – 2007.
Bet advice
This looks a competitive class 3 handicap Chase, being contested by plenty of horses proven in class, under the race conditions. If the first three in the forecast are priced up close and there is decent support coming in on the exchanges for other horses as well as favourite, consider laying the favourite.
Odds & Liability
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial
Warwick 2.00
No previous statistics for this race. No bet
Warwick 2.30
- This race has been run in seven times – 2002 to 2011. During that time 2 favourites have won it –Roley Hill 100/30f and Nine De Sivola 9/2f
- 7 different trainers have won this race
Bet advice
This is likely to be a fiercely contested class 2 handicap hurdle raced over 3 miles 1 furlong. Consider laying the favourite
Odds & Liability
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds.
Warwick 3.05
- 6 favourites have won this in the last 7 years
- Only one horse price bigger than 9/4 has ever won this. The other winners odds were – 6/4 out, 8/13 F, 2/1F, 5/6F, Evens
- 5 different trainers have won this race. Emma Lavelle twice in, 2011 – 2007
Bet advice
There is a very strong favourite bias for this race, so it’s worth backing. Please bear in mind that there is little value backing very short priced favourites.
Warwick 3.40
- Only 1 favourite has won is this in 8 years 2002 – 2011 the race didn’t take place in 2009 – 2010.
- 5 different trainers have won this. Alan King has won the last two runnings of this race 2011 – West end Rocker 10/1, D`Argent 2008 18/1. Paul Nicholls has also won the race twice with Ladalko 2007 – 9/2F and Euroteck 2006 – 6/1.
Bet advice
Not a strong race for favourites, and in a 3 mile 5 f handicap Chase anything can happen. Lay the favourite, but also give consideration to Alan King and Paul Nicholls runners.
Odds & Liability
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds.
The Race-Specialist Pro Lay Betting system is now only… £26.99 was (£39.99)
Learn how to make realistic profits from betting
Practical, profitable advise direct to your inbox
- Proven techniques I use in my own betting
- Honest reviews on systems and services that are profitable
- Exclusive tips to make your betting easier & more profitable
Copyright secured by Digiprove 2010 Jonathan Burgess
