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Cheltenham Festival Day 4 – Friday 18th March

March 17, 2011 by  
Filed under Horse Racing, Recent Articles

Cheltenham Festival Day 4 – Friday 18th March

The final day at the festival looks tricky with mixed stats for many of the races, with this in mind I have provided just 1 race assessment.

The key emphasis will be on laying favourites in races where the stats indicate favourites have a p00r long-term record. I hope you have all enjoyed my insight into betting against favourites using stats.

1.30 (JCB) Triumph Hurdle

The faq`s

  • 12 of the last 17 winners (including the last 6) started in the first 4 in the betting.
  • The last 5 winners were officially rated 138+
  • The Favourites don’t have a good record in this race. Only  2 favourites have won in the last 21 years.
  • N.J. Henderson has won this the last 2 years running. Grandouet is the current favourite – trading @ 7.8 at the time of this post going live, although 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites are all trading around 8.00. So this is likely to change before the off. Sam winner Has already beaten Grandouet this season.


Year Horse Age Trainer Odds
2010 Soldatino 4 N J Henderson 6/1
2009 Zaynar 4 N J Henderson 11/2
2008 Celestial Halo 4 P F Nicholls 5/1
2007 Katchit 4 A King 11/2
2006 Detroit City 4 P J Hobbs 7/2F
2005 Penzance 4 A King 9/1
2004 Made In Japan 4 P J Hobbs 20/1
2003 Spectroscope 4 J O’Neill 20/1
2002 Scolardy 4 W P Mullins 16/1
2000 Snow Drop 4 F Doumen 7/1
1999 Katarino 4 N J Henderson 11/4
1998 Upgrade 4 N A Twiston-Davies 14/1
1997 Commanche Court 4 T M Walsh 9/1
1996 Paddy’s Return 4 F Murphy 10/1
1995 Kissair 4 M C Pipe 16/1
1994 Mysilv 4 D Nicholson 2/1F
1993 Shawiya 4 M J P O’Brien 12/1
1992 Duke Of Monmouth 4 S E H Sherwood 33/1
1991 Oh So Risky 4 D R C Elsworth 14/1
1990 Rare Holiday 4 D K Weld 25/1
1989 Ikdam 4 R J Holder 66/1

Bet advice

Lay the favourite

Odds & Liability

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this  here`s a tutorial

Staking & Bet execution

No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until the market has formed properly, (usually by mid morning on each day of the races), although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play asking for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.

Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club. You can contact him here


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