Thursday, December 13th, 2018

Five Horses Wrongly Priced for Cheltenham 2018

February 28, 2018 by  
Filed under Recent Articles

Five Horses Wrongly Priced for Cheltenham 2018

Anyone with a marginal interest in the betting industry will know that the bookmakers often get it wrong. Most of the time this can work to the advantage of punters looking to make some profit. Indeed, they can even go badly wrong in some of the biggest races. This includes the Cheltenham Festival, where Douvan, Annie Power and Unowhatimeanharry all failed to deliver on being short-priced favourites in recent years.

Chelt pic 1 

Ante-post odds have been available for Cheltenham 2018 the moment the last race ended in 2017. However, we are finally at the point (with just a couple of weeks to go to opening day on 13th March) where we can see how each race is really shaping up. Below are five of the favourites for the races where the bookmakers have gone too short. That does not mean to say they should definitely not be favourites, rather that there is a case to be made for bigger odds or a shock winner.

Footpad @ Evens for the Arkle Chase (Ladbrokes, Sky Bet and others):

Footpad has been very good since switching to chasing at the start of the season, but for him to priced at evens for the Arkle does not look like any value at all. He has never truly been tested in a big race like this before, which should make punters extremely wary at those prices. The unbeaten Saint Calvados (11/2) looks like superb alternative value.

Buveur D’Air @ 2/5 for Champion Hurdle (Bet365):

 Chelt pic 2

Buveur D’Air may well win the Champion Hurdle for a second year in a row, but that will be down to the deficiencies of the rest of the field rather than seeing a truly great horse at its best. Faugheen’s career might be skidding to a halt, but Buveur D’Air might have more to fear from other like Elgin (20/1) and Melon (14/1).

 

Presenting Percy @ 5/2 for RSA Chase (Various):

Presenting Percy has won three out of his five races this season – is that enough to warrant being a short-priced favourite for the RSA Chase? The bookmakers think so, while others disagree. Betfair have gone 9/1 on the really talented Black Corton to win the race. That is a more realistic price in what looks like being a close contest.

Supasundae @ 3/1 for Stayers’ Hurdle (Various)

When you read expert betting tips for all Cheltenham race favourites, Supasundae rarely gets a mention. Jessica Harrington’s horse is decent, at best – so why has he been made favourite for one of the most prestigious races in the national hunt racing season? He beat an out-of-sorts Faugheen in the Irish Champion Hurdle recently and was quickly installed as favourite for the Stayers’ Hurdle, but more evidence is needed. Supasundae has lost eight of his last 11 races, sometimes against very average opposition. There is a lot of value to be found (Wholestone 16/1, The New One 18/1) in the Stayers’ Hurdle this year, just not with Supasundae.

 

Cause of Causes @ 3/1 for Cross Country Chase (Various):

Race fans love to see horses achieve special things, so it is no surprise to see Cause of Causes backed to win his fourth race at the Cheltenham Festival – something that will put him in very prestigious company. He won the 2017 Cross Country Chase at the Festival of course, but 3/1 is ridiculous for a horse that came 15th in his last race. It would be nice to see him win, but the value may be found in betting against the history books.

 

About Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair's Education site. He also runs the Profitable - False Favourites Betting Tips Club Which cost just 24 pence a day. You can also connect with him on Facebook and Twitter

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