Trends, Statistics And Betting Angles For CH4 Races (Saturday 26.5.2012)
May 25, 2012 by Jonathan
Filed under Recent Articles
The following betting advice, statistics and trends have been compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe (AJ-racing) and Jonathan Burgess. The aim is to provide you with key statistical trends to help you find profitable angles when betting on the televised races on CH 4 each Saturday. (Refer to our comments for potential bet strategies) We have also provided strategic bet placement advice.
Backing or Dutching
Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying! You can use this dutching calculator to work out your stakes here. Read our tutorial on how to use Dutching to make regular profits here
Odds & Liability When laying
Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this, here`s a tutorial.
Alternatively, Â if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds.
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2:30 HAYDOCK Betfred Silver Bowl Handicap Cl2 1m CH4
SILVER BOWL
ODDS
15/15 priced 12/1 or less
12/15 in the 1st three in the market, backing all 46 runners produces a +£16.83 profit
FAVOURITES
5 winning favourites for a profit of +£1.87
TRAINER
Mark Johnston has had the most runners with 20 runners but only managed the 1 winner with another 3 placed.
Richard Fahey has had 10 runners with 1 winner and another 3 placed
Mick Channon has had 1 winner from 10 runners with another 3 placed
LAST RACE
15/15 ran on turf
14/15 ran within the last 30 days
13/15 finished in the 1st four
2 winners last raced at Hamilton from only 3 runners
2 winners last raced at Goodwood from 10 runners with another one placed
2 winners last raced at Windsor from 6 runners with another one placed
3 winners last raced at Newmarket from 35 runners with another 6 placed
Only 1 winner from York from 37 runners but there were another 9 placed
Only 1 winner from Sandown from 18 runners and only another 2 placed
OTHER FACTORS
15/15 had won at least one race
13/15 had won at least 1 of their last 3 races
3:00 HAYDOCK Betfred.com Temple Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 5f CH4
TEMPLE STAKES
ODDS
12/15 from the 1st 4 in the market backing all 52 runners has produced a profit of +£14.58
FAVOURITES
4 winning favourites for a loss of -£3.92
TRAINER
No angles from today’s runners
AGE
15/15 aged 3 to 8
LAST RACE
11/15 finished in the 1st four
6 winners last raced at Newmarket from 44 runners with another 10 placed
3 winners last raced at York from 31 runners with another 7 placed
OTHER FACTORS
12/15 had won at least 1 of their last 3 runs
2:45 GOODWOOD 32Red Festival Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m1f192y CH4
FESTIVAL STAKES
ODDS
14/14 priced 20/1 or less
12/14 priced 8/1 or less
12/14 from the 1st 3 in the market
FAVOURITES
6/14 for a profit of +£2.54
WEIGHT/RATING
10/15 rated 107 or more
TRAINERS
Sir Henry Cecil has had 2 winners from just 3 runners with the other one placed. Give his runers serious attention for Each way bets
LAST RACE
13/14 finished in the 1st five
5 winners last raced at Newmarket from 22 runners with another 4 placed
3 winners last raced at Ascot from 8 runners with another 2 placed
2 winners last raced at York from 6 runners with another 1 placed
OTHER FACTORS
14/14 had won at least 1 race
Look at previous track winners 7 winners from 24 runners compared to 7 winners from 74 runners for those with no track experience
3:15 CURRAGH Abu Dhabi Irish 2000 Guineas (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) 1m CH4
IRISH 200 GUINEAS
ODDS
14/15 priced 12/1 or less
13/15 were in the 1st three in the market
FAVOURITES
5 winning favourites for a loss of -£3.43
TRAINER
Aiden O’Brien has had 7 winners from 49 runners with another 10 placed. Again Aiden has a lot of runners so to narrow it down 5 of those 7 winners were priced at 4/1 or less, which reduces it to 12 past runners and produces a profit of +£2.82
LAST RACE
14/15 raced within the last 45 days
12/15 last raced in the UK from 64 runners compared to 3/15 from Ireland from 77 runners
10/15 last raced in a Group 1 race
11 winners last raced at Newmarket from 49 runners with another 15 placed
The other UK winner came from the only runner that ran at Goodwood
The Irish winners last raced at either Leopardstown or Curragh and all those winners were trained by Aiden O’Brien
OTHER FACTORS
14/15 had run at least once in the last 90 days
15/15 had run at least twice in their careers
11/15 had won at least twice
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