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September 3, 2014 by  
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Members Weekly Tips & Betting Advice

 

Make sure to read our  advice on how to structure your betting banks for backing and layingBetting Banks: Why You Need One for Backing And Another For Laying

 

The aim is to provide you with steady, low risk, regular profits using a portfolio style approach to betting.

Please take a few minutes to carefully read all of the information in the members area below, as we often add new betting PDFs to download, tutorials, videos and other members only bonuses.

In order to make a long-term profit you must back all selections. There are two types of bettor, can you guess which one makes a profit.

Investor: implicitly follows instructions and eventually makes a long-term profit, by betting on all selections

Gambler: at the first sign of any losing run, starts to chop and change, by betting on some selections but not on others. Ultimately misses out on making a long-term profit because he did not bet on the selections that won and actually provided the profit.

Remember: when backing horses you have to accept that you will back more losers than winners. The winners are offered at value odds and when they come along profits will be obtained.

Check out Feb,March, April, May`s, June`s and July`s results here 85+ points profit. (Back bets)

Here is an important article we recommend you read…Understanding the 80/20 principle Will revolutionise YOUR betting (WHY tipsters GET bad press)

 

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STAKING PLANS

There are two different approaches you could take when betting the  TRAINER TREND selections. Either a 1 POINT WIN, or splitting a 1 point stake 0.5 each way, or 1 pt each way when a horses place odds are 2.5 or over- For example, a £10 bet should be split £5 to win and £5 to place, or £10 each way.

Please note this advice is only guidance, and each of you will have a different preference with regards to win only, or each Way Betting, therefore, we suggest you read our trainer trends expert`s advice below…

Our trends expert Jonathan Sutcliffe provided the following, important advice regarding each Way betting:

When it comes to EW punting I’m actually of the view if you think it may win but will DEFINITELY place then back it each way even if it is at 5/2, at least you know you will be getting most of your money back should it only place, however for trends it is different as you are not analyzing the race in question so although it may be only 5/2, there may also be several other horses in with a chance too so it’s not a banker place bet.

John informs me his preferred approach for betting on trainer trends is to back selections to win only.

Please be aware – when backing selections TO WIN ONLY the losing runs will be longer, than when betting each way, however the profits are likely to be bigger, because of the odds are better than each way betting.

 

How to Reduce the liability on your lay bets

Here is an example of losing lay which could have been traded and we did just that – to reduce liabilty. If you laid before SP in the morning it was available under 5.00 most of the day – if you waited until SP time to lay it was no bet as the SP was 8.40. Either way trading oportunaties to reduce liability were available. (As you can see only one point was lost)

We can`t give EXACT advise as racing literally changes by the hour some horse drift others steam. UNLIKE BACKING HORSES – with laying you need to be proactive. Betfair allows you to do this STAKE PROTECTION IS THE NUMBER ONE AIM!!! If you laid a horse early and its odds drift back it to reduce your laibility even it wins you loose less.

Gone are the days of being able to lay every selection for the exact odds you want you have to be SAVVY.

Loosing runs:

below are two examples of our LAY systems results from lay systems in our portfolio. These are based on longterm statistics. Pay attention to the BF-LAY column in each table as this is the profit generted in that year for the lay system, where as the SP-PL represents the loss made if BACKING the selections.

The first table system results has made a profit every year since 2010, however like all types of systems their are losing runs, for example in 2013 there were 10 winners (losing lays) from 75 bets. Please be aware that losing runs can happen at any time and then tend to come in clusters.

You need to deal with them and you need to continue betting until they are over. The fickle betters often give up at the 1st sign of losing run. Betting patterns are never even or consistent they flutuate.

Please note these results are not from the recent lay selections, they are to illustrate that there will be losing runs even on the route to profit.

<td

Period Bets Wins WinStrike SP_PL Places PlaceStrike Races RaceStrike ROI BF_Back BF_Lay
2013 75 10 13% -39.4 28 37% 75 13% -52.53% -40.07 33.71
2012 117 17 15% -54.29 54 46% 116 15% -46.40% -55.43 44.88
2011 71 8 11% -41.66 24 34% 71 11% -58.68% -42.19 36.46
2010 72 11 15% -31.67 36 50% 72

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club. You can contact him here


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