Thursday, October 1st, 2020

Bookmakers, Odds Compilers And The betting Market (Part 1:)

December 17, 2012 by  
Filed under Money Management, Recent Articles

Bookmaker or Turf Accountant?

Which would you rather be? Actually one is a more up-market name for the other!

They both take money offered as bets by those betting on a particular  outcome for an event. Then they pay out to those that were correct in their predictions of that outcome.

For any bookmaker to survive, he or she must manipulate the odds so that they make a profit regardless of the outcome. This balancing of the odds-book  involves offering lower odds than the actual odds of the event in question.

As a result, add up the percentages offered and you will find they exceed 100%. That means the book is over-round, as it’s called.

Why Is Their Book Over-round?

Good question…  Because that’s how they make their profit. Basically it works like this.  Toss a coin and there is a 50% chance of it landing heads; 50% landing tails. This is obviously an even, 1/1 chance.

So you bet 50 quid on heads and your friend bet 50 quid on tails. The bookie is now holding 100 quid.

The coin is tossed. Heads…You win. The bookie pays you your 50 quid back AND your friend’s 50.

He’s paid out 100 quid – for no profit!

But supposing the bookmaker manipulates the odds and offers a winning price based on, say, 40% for heads and 40% for tails. Under that scenario he takes in the 100 quid but only pays  40 + 40. The remaining 20 quid is profit for the bookmaker.

And this is basically what is done for every race. So on an over-round book of 130%, the bookie pays out 100 and the extra 30 ‘left behind’ is the bookie’s profit.

Supposing the bookmaker offered odds of 6/5 (120%) instead of evens 1/1 on the coin-tossing outcome? In that case you as the punter could bet 50 to win AND 50 to lose AND still make 20 quid profit because the bookie must pay out 120.

Individual bookmakers don’t let that happen – they’d soon be out of business!

But by comparing odds for an event using an odds comparison website, it is possible to identify a guaranteed profit if you back to win and lay to lose the same event.

learn more about bookmakers with our…Betting Terminology A-Z

The Role of Odds Compilers

Outcomes for sporting events can be hard to predict. Naturally, bookmakers need to get the odds as correct as possible. So they employ odds compilers to set the prices for different events.

These clever folk consult their contacts, consult form experts, and take into account other variables that will include, jockey, trainer trends, runner’s preferred track condition and so on.

They then analyse and convert that data into the percentage chance of each runner winning the race.

If the book is to be constructed to provide a particular profit, say 10 quidif you, then some or even all of the estimated odds are shortened to form an over-round book.

Punters get understandably upset when the over-round is too high. The bookmaker has been too greedy and there is no value for the punter to bet in that race.

The Betting Market

Some bookmakers are always quick to compile and release their odds for an event. Others are far more cautious. They like to look at others’ odds to get a feel for the market.

It gives them an opportunity to further tinker with their odds by shortening the odds on the horses more likely to win, and lengthening the odds on the less likely runners.

It all boils down to opinions of the different odds compilers at the different firms. And those different opinions are reflected in the different prices in the odds comparison charts.

Can YOU beat the Bookies?

The simple answer is no. However, there is a profitable way to play the bookies at their own game.

To do this you need to operate a tried and tested, profitable Betting Portfolio of systems and Trainer trends. The best part is… you don’t have to do anything except follow simple advice.

Even better, unlike the majority of betting advisory services/tipsters available online this profitable advice is very affordable at less than 24 penece a day. Yes you read that correct. For less than the price of a daily newspaper you can …join the false favourites members club

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club Which cost just 24 pence a day. You can also connect with him on Facebook and Twitter

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