Wednesday, September 30th, 2020

Are You An Investor Or A Gambler? Why Some Punters Make A Profit Whilst Others Don’t.

Every punter knows that betting systems and tipster services live or die by the profit or loss they make.

However, like any other form of investment there are peaks, troughs, and inevitable losing months which have to be accepted on the road to long-term profit.

Unfortunately most punters are totally inexperienced when it comes to understanding betting psychology, and simply do not have the mental willpower to ride out even the most modest of losing runs.

In this post we are going to look at why some punters make a long-term profit while others don’t.

Having been online for around seven years, something has puzzled me…

In that time I have sold the same betting method to 100`s of different people, thankfully the majority are satisfied, but occasionally I get completely different opinions about exactly the same product.

To illustrate the point let`s look at a couple of customer emails…

Customer one:

Dear Jon

When I first saw your add I was a bit skeptical about buying the system. I’ve tried other more expensive lay methods before without much success. They say you have to try a few before you find one that works, your system definitely does. Now I know why I wasn’t making any money before. I was using the wrong systems.

I’d like to thank you for providing me with a way to make a nice second income, false favourites is an absolutely brilliant method for selecting horses that have little chance of winning.

Customer two:

I would like to requested a refund, well within 30 days of purchasing your betting method.  I have failed to make a profit, and frankly think your system is crap.

As you can see two completely different reactions.

The difference between success and failure is in the application of instructions

Obviously informational products such as betting systems contain instructions which need to be followed and tested for a reasonable length of time in order to achieve a profit.

Now for quite some time, I’ve suspected that the divergent experience a limited number of people have with the same product basically boils down to the ability to follow instructions correctly and test the product for a reasonable length of time.

Look at it this way – if you had to cross shark infested water, it would make sense to follow someone one who has already done it successfully wouldn’t it? Taking a short cut because it is looked quicker is obviously not the sensible option in this situation.

You would have no idea whether this short cut would result in disaster. In shark infested water, the gap between success and destruction may be little more than a few metres, and the uninitiated have no way of knowing where the make or break margins lie. And it is exactly the same in any moneymaking venture, although your life will  not be under threat, you could potentially lose money.

Now as I said, I suspected that the difference between success and failure is in the application of instructions, but I can’t really prove this. You see when you set up and run a moneymaking system it is based around a process which needs to be clarified through instructions, missing a few steps through laziness is obviously a recipe for disaster.

Asking someone to go through the process they’ve followed isn’t very productive. Generally they just say they followed it to the letter, or they can’t remember, or they tried it for a week and then gave up!

Every punter knows that betting systems and tipster services live or die by the profit and loss they make. However, like any other form of investment there are peaks, troughs, and inevitable losing months, which have to be accepted on the road to long-term profit.

Most punters simply do not have the mental willpower to ride out even the most modest of losing runs

To illustrate this point clearly, let us take a look at the proofed results from two betting services compiled by racing index.com

Pay particular attention to the BSP profit columns. You’ll notice the losing months are highlighted in red. Both Over 22 and Stable Investment tipping services had 5 losing months this year.

Imagine you had subscribed to the Over 22 service in January 2012, during which there was a -16.92 loss. How would you have dealt with that situation? Be honest with yourself – would you have continued with the service or canceled your subscription?

Obviously I would not assume how you might react, but my experience of dealing with many different types of punters tells me that fickle Gamblers would have unsubscribed at this point thinking the service was useless.

By doing this they would have missed out on three subsequent months of profit February 2012 + 24.87, March 2012 +70.84, April 2012+12.34. These profitable months were then followed by three losing months, but at this point in time the service has made a profit of +67.43 points profit if betting all selections to Betfair SP.

 

Proofed Results for Over22 Back Selections

Month by Month Breakdown of Proofed Results Based on 1 Point Level Stakes

Month Bets SR% Staked SP Profit BSP Profit
October 2012 7 14.3 7.00 4.00 6.90
September 2012 16 25.0 16.00 -2.75 -2.41
August 2012 31 19.4 31.00 -1.37 2.45
July 2012 21 4.8 21.00 -18.00 -18.33
June 2012 24 20.8 24.00 -9.24 -9.33
May 2012 28 25.0 28.00 -1.61 -2.98
April 2012 37 18.9 37.00 5.13 12.34
March 2012 24 33.3 24.00 54.89 70.84
February 2012 50 22.0 50.00 12.77 24.87
January 2012 35 20.0 35.00 -16.25 -16.92
Total for 2012 273 20.9 273.0 27.57 67.43

 

Imagine you had subscribed to the Stable Investment service below,  in January 2012. A respectable 9.54 points profit was followed by what most of us would consider a disastrous three months, losing over 112.59 points. Betting thier selections for just £10 stakes would mean you`d be £1125.9 down for that period.

At this point most punters would have bailed out of this service concluding it was absolutely useless. Well, you can guess what happened next. In the following three months of May 2012 , June 2012 and July 2012 this service went on to make a three month profit of +332.03 points to Betfair SP

If we minus the three-month loss of £1125.9 from the profit of £3320.3 that would have provided a profit of £2194.4 up to that point. There were two more losing months followed by a profitable month.

So far this year Stable Investments has made over 220.86 points profit, even with five losing months.

 

Proofed Results for Stable Investments Back Selections

Month by Month Breakdown of Proofed Results Based on 1 Point Level Stakes

Month Bets SR% Staked SP Profit BSP Profit
October 2012 297 23.6 297.00 -7.79 15.59
September 2012 447 20.8 447.00 -36.21 -7.93
August 2012 518 21.6 518.00 -47.53 -15.78
July 2012 465 23.7 465.00 46.12 108.91
June 2012 415 22.7 415.00 63.90 103.30
May 2012 387 24.3 387.00 36.07 119.82
April 2012 403 19.1 403.00 -65.92 -20.88
March 2012 370 20.0 370.00 -55.39 -29.11
February 2012 279 17.6 279.00 -74.56 -62.60
January 2012 278 20.5 278.00 -13.55 9.54
Total for 2012 3859 21.5 3,859.0 -154.86 220.86

 

Again, if you look at the monthly breakdown of the Over22 Lay service results, you’ll see there are two losing months so far this year.

Proofed Results for Over22 Lay Selections

Month by Month Breakdown of Proofed Results Based on 1 Point Level Stakes

Month Bets SR% Staked Profit
October 2012 11 72.7 11.00 9.00
September 2012 18 27.8 18.00 -6.89
August 2012 17 47.1 17.00 6.18
July 2012 12 58.3 12.00 5.91
June 2012 20 45.0 20.00 1.41
May 2012 20 40.0 20.00 0.22
April 2012 14 42.9 14.00 0.26
March 2012 33 51.5 33.00 15.61
February 2012 54 38.9 54.00 -6.88
January 2012 55 47.3 55.00 3.45
Total for 2012 254 45.3 254.0 28.27

Summary:

There are two types of bettor, can you guess which one makes a profit?

Investor: implicitly follows instructions and eventually makes a long-term profit, by betting on all selections

Gambler: at the first sign of any losing run, starts to chop and change, by betting on some selections but not on others, or worse stops betting altogether. Ultimately misses out on making a long-term profit because he did not bet on the selections that won and actually provided the profit.

So as you can see the road to profit is never even, consistent or smooth. And this is the whole point I’m trying to make. Gamblers never make a profit, investors who can follow instructions ,not lose their nerve and keep a clear head eventually make a profit when following a profitable betting system or tipping service.

Other essential betting practices you need to adhere to:

Discipline

Very few punters have the required discipline needed to follow a profitable system or tipster.

 

Under-funding

If you follow a betting system or tipsters advice most days, then you need to have a decent sized betting account to allow for inevitable losing runs. Some tipsters and betting systems can advice up to 10 or more selections a day. If you’re betting bank is inadequate when the inevitable losing days come along you are likely to bet emotively and not objectively. Under-funding is one of the main reason why ill-prepared punters lose their betting bank.

Correct staking

Once you have decided on the size of your betting bank. It should be split into a minimum of 100-200 points. On average each bet should be no more than one point per selectionor when each way betting split a 1 point stake 0.5 each way when a horses place odds are 2.5 or over. Please note this advice is only guidance, and each of you will have a different preference with regards to win only, or Each Way Betting.

Patience

Unfortunately, the average punter has very little patience when it comes to betting on horses. Whilst successful punters wait for the right races to bet in, even after losing day. One thing all losing punters have in common is – they chase losses. Often they will do this in a single day`s betting, because they simply want to win back the money they’ve lost, irrespective of whether or not there are suitable races available. Conversely, profitable punters simply accept a losing day/week, or even a losing month

Remember: In order to make a long-term profit you must back or lay all selections, when following a betting system or tipster.  When backing horses you have to accept that you will back more losers than winners. As long as the winners are offered at value odds a profit will be made when they come along.

Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair’s Education site. He also runs the Profitable – False Favourites Betting Tips Club Which cost just 24 pence a day. You can also connect with him on Facebook and Twitter


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Comments

3 Responses to “Are You An Investor Or A Gambler? Why Some Punters Make A Profit Whilst Others Don’t.”
  1. Easwaran-India says:

    Dear jonathan,
    greetings, it is superb view you gave on investors vs Gamblers.
    when it comes to horse racing wagering people thing they can amaze wealth over a night
    this mentality amuses me,simply we have with us only the past record of horses along with jok and trainer statistics ,any data can give information, and we can wager on the out put of analysis of the data, but the result need not be optimistic, if one can have patience and go with subscribed selection i am quite sure one can make it ,
    to make it as a ones livelihood out of racing meaningful staking with capital is essential, most of the gamblers do not have the necessary capital or patience to follow when the down trend starts,
    the quitter never wins, winner never quits he stays with the trend and makes it in the end.
    thanks for your wonderful write up,keep it up jonathan,
    with love and gratitude
    easwaran
    india

  2. Michael says:

    Guilty as charged! This is for me the biggest challenge. To stop chopping and changing my approach. Very good blog and read them all.

    thanks

    Michael

  3. james harley says:

    Hi Jonathan
    This is a very interesting subject for as for me this is all about mindset and its a very much under rated topic that very few people talk about. This used to be quite a problem for me but thanks to a couple of books written by a guy called Andy shaw have now got a much better handle on my trading account….his books deal with creating a successful mindset….his website is called abugfreemind.com were he gives the 1st 5 chapters of his books away for free….please note this is nothing to do with betting etc it is just purely to do with sorting your mindset out…like say its had a big impact on me and how I now operate my way of thinking.
    best regards james harley

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