Which favourites to lay at the Doncaster Flat meeting – April 3rd & 4TH

Change over time again

The Flat season officially opens on the 2^nd of APRIL with the two day meeting at Doncaster. This prestigious meeting signals a transitional phase between the end of the proper winter jumps season, and the beginning of the flat season.

Below you`ll find a list of  races which take place at Doncaster on Saturday 2^nd and Sunday 3^rd of April.  Below those you will find some lay angles based on long term trends . These include objective assessment of:

• Which races favourites don`t have a good record in
• Bet advice
• Staking and bet execution strategies

Saturday 2nd of APRIL

• The William Hill Spring Mile (Handicap) 14:00  1m
• The Williamhill.Com Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) 14:35:00 6f
• The William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) 15:05 1m
• The Williamhill.Com – Brocklesby Conditions Stakes 15:40:00 5f
• The Bob Beevers Memorial Maiden Stakes 16:15  1m 2f 60y
• The Williamhill.com Handicap Stakes (71-85) 16:45 1m 2f 60y
• The Universalrecycling company.co.uk Apprentice Handicap Stakes (56-70) 17:15 1m 2f 60y

Sunday 3rd of APRIL

• The Aja Gentleman Amateur Riders’ Handicap Stakes (56-70) 14:15 1m 4f
• The Crownhotel-Bawtry.Com Maiden Stakes 14:45 7f
• The William Hill Home Of Betting Handicap Stakes (71-85) 15:20 7f
• The Williamhill.Com Handicap Stakes (86-100) 15:55 6f
• The Williamhill.Com Doncaster Shield (Conditions Stakes) 16:30 1m 4f
• The Sep Handicap Stakes (76-90) 17:05:00 1m 2f 60y
• The Wanted – Live At Doncaster 14th May Fillies’ Handicap Stakes (71-85) 17:35 1m

2.05pm race>>>WILLIAM HILL SPRING MILE HANDICAP

The faq`s

• Only 1 favourite in the last 1o years has won this. Therefore this looks a poor race for favourites
• The last 9 winners of this race have gone off at double figure odds in the last 1o years
• 7 of the last 10 winners where 4 years olds

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2010	Irish Heartbeat	5	9-8	4/1F	Richard Fahey	Paul Hanagan	101
2009	Manassas	4	9-7	22/1	Brian Meehan	Dane O’Neill	102
2008	Don’t Panic	4	9-8	13/2	Peter Chapple-Hyam	Alan Munro	114
2007	European Dream	4	8-13	12/1	Richard Guest	Darryll Holland	95
2006	Mezuzah	6	8-5	14/1	Michael Easterby	Paul Mulrennan	84
2005	Barathea Dreams	4	8-8	18/1	J S Moore	Martin Dwyer	84
2004	Autumn Glory	4	9-2	20/1	G Wragg	Steve Drowne	102
2003	Aldora	4	9-9	33/1	M J Ryan	Martin Dwyer	100
2002	Lady Bear	4	8-13	10/1	Richard Fahey	Paul Hanagan	90
2001	Melodian	6	8-11	20/1	Mel Brittain	T Williams	87

Bet advice lay the favourite

Odds & Liability

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this  here`s a tutorial

Staking & Bet execution

No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until the market has formed properly, (usually by mid morning on each day of the races), although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play asking for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.

Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

2.35 race>>>>WILLIAM HILL CAMBRIDGE HILL TROPHY

The faq`s

• Only 2 favourites in the last 1o years has won this. Therefore this looks a poor race for favourites
• The last 8 winners of this race have gone off at double figure odds in the last 1o years
• Only one- 3 years old hase won this in the last 10 years

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2010	Inxile	5	9-5	17/2	David Nicholls	Paul Hanagan	111
2009	Prime Defender	5	9-2	3/1F	B W Hills	Michael Hills	112
2008	Aahayson	4	9-2	14/1	K R Burke	Fergus Sweeney	110
2007	Rising Shadow	6	9-5	13/2	David Barron	Jimmy Quinn	113
2006	Les Arcs	6	9-2	15/2	Tim Pitt	Neil Callan	116
2005	La Cucaracha	4	8-11	16/1	B W Hills	Michael Hills	103
2004	Goldeva	5	8-11	40/1	Reg Hollinshead	Tony Culhane	101
2003	Red Carpet	5	9-2	7/2F	Michael Bell	Kieren Fallon	113
2002	Falcon Hill	3	8-6	11/1	Mark Johnston	Royston Ffrench	115
2001	Now Look Here	5	9-2	10/1	B A McMahon	John Reid	107

Bet advice lay the favourite

Odds & Liability

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this  here`s a tutorial

Staking & Bet execution

No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until the market has formed properly, (usually by mid morning on each day of the races), although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play asking for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.

Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queuing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

3.40 race>>>>>>WILLIAM HILL BROCKELSBY CONDITIONS STAKES

The faq`s

• No favourites have won this race in the last 1o years. Therefore this looks a poor race for favourites
• The last 9 winners of this race have gone off at double figure odds in the last 1o years

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2010	Chiswick Bey	2	8-11	6/1	Richard Fahey	Paul Hanagan	84
2009	Hearts Of Fire	2	8-11	12/1	Pat Eddery	Paul Eddery	89
2008	Sally’s Dilemma	2	8-3	7/1	Bill Turner	Tolley Dean	79
2007	Mister Hardy	2	8-11	11/2C	Richard Fahey	Paul Hanagan	85
2006	Spoof Master	2	8-8	5/2	Bill Turner	Robert Miles	84
2005	Phantom Whisper	2	9-1	9/2	Rod Millman	Alan Munro	93
2004	Next Time Around	2	8-11	9/1	Linda Stubbs	Robert Winston	83
2003	Red Power	2	8-11	25/1	P A Blockley	Robbie Fitzpatrick	83
2002	The Lord	2	8-11	13/2	Bill Turner	Alan Daly	87
2001	Shuffling Kid	2	8-11	10/1	B A McMahon	T Quinn	87

Bet advice lay the favourite

Odds & Liability

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this  here`s a tutorial

Staking & Bet execution

No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until the market has formed properly, (usually by mid morning on each day of the races), although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play asking for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.

Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

4.15 race>>>BOB BEEVERS MEMORIAL MAIDEN STAKES

The faq`s

• Only 2 favourites in the last 1o years has won this(both of which went off at short odds – 10/11 & 11/8. Therefore this looks a poor race for favourites

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2010	Senate	3	9-3	5/1	John Gosden	Robert Havlin	86
2009	Everynight	3	9-3	16/1	Marco Botti	Alan Munro	85
2008	No To Trident	3	8-10	33/1	David Evans	Richard Evans	80
2007	Harland	3	9-3	10/11F	Michael Jarvis	Neil Callan	87
2005	Indian Pipe Dream	3	9-0	7/2	John Gosden	Jimmy Fortune	82
2004	King Of Dreams	3	9-0	11/8F	Mark Johnston	K Dalgleish	88
2003	Blythe Knight	3	9-0	5/1	Ed Dunlop	Pat Eddery	84
2002	Murray	3	9-0	10/1	Mick Channon	Steve Drowne	93
2001	Prize Winner	3	9-0	16/1	Jeremy Noseda	Pat Eddery	88

Bet advice lay the favourite

Odds & Liability

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this  here`s a tutorial

Staking & Bet execution

No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until the market has formed properly, (usually by mid morning on each day of the races), although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play asking for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.

Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queuing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

4.50 race>>>WILLIAM HILL.COM HANDICAP

The faq`s

• Only 2 favourites have won this race in the last 1o years. Therefore this looks a poor race for favourites
• 7 winners of this race have gone off at single figure odds in the last 1o years
• 4 year old + horses seem to have dominated this in the last 5 years.

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2010	Rosbay	6	8-10	9/1	Tim Easterby	Duran Fentiman	82
2010	Red Jade	5	9-0	7/2J	Richard Fahey	Paul Hanagan	93
2009	Spring Jim	8	8-9	10/1	James Fanshawe	William Buick	86
2008	Granston	7	9-1	25/1	James Bethell	Robert Winston	89
2007	Esthlos	4	8-6	7/1	J Jay	Joe Fanning	85
2006	Gracechurch	3	9-1	5/1	Mick Channon	Tony Culhane	80
2005	Come On Jonny	3	8-13	12/1	Ralph Beckett	Seb Sanders	80
2004	Mutafanen	3	9-7	9/2F	Ed Dunlop	W J Supple	99
2003	Santando	3	8-10	6/1	Clive Brittain	Kieren Fallon	80
2002	Manorson	3	9-7	4/1F	David Arbuthnot	J Murtagh	105

Bet advice lay the favourite

Odds & Liability

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this  here`s a tutorial

Staking & Bet execution

No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until the market has formed properly, (usually by mid morning on each day of the races), although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play asking for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.

Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queuing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

DAY 2 DONCASTER Sunday 3rd APRIL

3.55 race>>>THE WILLIAM HILL HANDICAP STAKES

The faq`s

• Only 2 favourites have won this race over a 8 year period. The race was not run in 2006-07. Therefore this looks a poor race for favourites
• 5 winners of this race have gone off at double figure odds – 3 at single odds
• 4 -5 years olds seem to have had the upper hand in recent years

YEAR	WINNER	AGE	WGT	SP	TRAINER	JOCKEY	RPR
2010	Kaldoun Kingdom	5	9-3	6/1	Richard Fahey	Paul Hanagan	107
2009	Palace Moon	4	8-8	5/1F	Hughie Morrison	Steve Drowne	114
2008	Pusey Street Lady	4	8-5	40/1	John Gallagher	Joe Fanning	98
2005	Merlin’s Dancer	5	8-11	16/1	David Nicholls	Adrian Nicholls	96
2004	Steel Blue	4	9-6	16/1	Richard Whitaker	Michael Hills	89
2003	Law Breaker	5	8-13	66/1	J A Gilbert	Brian Reilly	96
2002	Tom Tun	7	9-1	5/1F	James Given	Dean McKeown	91
2001	Cadeaux Cher	7	9-8	12/1	B W Hills	Richard Hughes	90

Bet advice lay the favourite

Odds & Liability

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Cheltenham festival being so competitive it often means the favourites can go off at bigger odds, although the amount of hype and mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this  here`s a tutorial

Staking & Bet execution

No lays above 5.20 on Betfair. Wait until the market has formed properly, (usually by mid morning on each day of the races), although there can be dramatic steamers and drifters just before the off as bookies and big players lay their bets off on Betfair. Alternatively lay in-play asking for odds realistically lower than those on offer, i.e. if the favourite is trading at 5.00 ask for 4.2 and so on.

Bear in mind that there will be a lot of money floating around in-play so look for odds close to what you want which don’t have thousands already offered. Betfair works on queing principle of (first come first served) So if a horse is trading at 5.20 pre race and then runs well naturally it will shorten in play. You will get matched as long as you choose the right odds.

Grab A FREE £20-£25 bet with Betfair here

Race Specialist PRO TIP

I have only included races where there are sufficient statistics, other races either have a strong favourites bias or not enough stats to perform accurate analysis

If your are having a bet over the two days make sure to follow my staking advice. Remember Damage limitation is the key “ALWAYS PROTECT YOUR STAKE MONEY”

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Jonathan Burgess

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