Friday, July 20th, 2018

Trends, Statistics And Betting Angles For CH4 Races (Saturday 23.6.2012)

June 22, 2012 by  
Filed under Recent Articles

The following betting advice, statistics and trends have been compiled by Jonathan Sutcliffe (AJ-racing) and Jonathan Burgess. The aim is to provide you with key statistical trends to help you find profitable angles when betting on the televised races on CH 4 each Saturday. (Refer to our comments for potential bet strategies) We have also provided strategic bet placement advice.

Backing or Dutching

Following these bet placement approaches you`ll either be risking one point or split staking, ultimately there’s less risk than when laying! You can use this dutching calculator to work out your stakes here. Read our tutorial on how to use Dutching to make regular profits here

Odds & Liability When laying

Obviously nobody wants to take unnecessary risks. However with Graded & Listed races being so competitive it often means the favourites go off at bigger odds, although the amount of mug money being thrown into the market means we can often obtain value lays on an over bet favourites. Use the liability function on your Betfair bet slip, if your not sure how to do this,  here`s a tutorial.

Alternatively,  if you manage to get value of your lay bet before the race starts you can minimise the risk by backing the horse in play for bigger odds.

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2:30 ASCOT Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f BBC1

CHESHAM STAKES – A race for 2 year olds and run over 7 furlongs and from the trends below we are looking for a horse that has run either once or twice, finished in the first 3 in it’s last race which was 16 to 60 days ago and is priced at 8/1 or less

ODDS

13/15 priced at 8/1 or less and these 13 also filled the first 4 places in the odds market

FAVOURITES

5 winning favourites for a loss of -£1.02

TRAINER

Mark Johnston has won the race 3 times from 15 runners with another 2 placed but No runner this year

Aiden O’Brien has won the race 2 times from 14 runners with another 7 placed

John Gosden has only had 3 runners but has 1 winner and another placed

LAST RACE

3 winners last raced at Doncaster from 11 runners with a further 2 placed

3 winners last raced at Newbury from 17 runners with a further 2 placed

15/15 finished in the 1st three

15/15 either won or were beaten less than 3 lengths

14/15 started at odds of 12/1 or less

14/15 ran at 6 furlongs or more

13/15 raced 16 to 60 days ago

13/15 ran in a Class 3 or 4 race the other 2 winners ran in Ireland

OTHER FACTORS

15/15 had finished in the first 3 in at least one of there last 3 starts

12/15 had finished first in at least one of there last 3 starts

15/15 had raced either once or twice in the last 90 days

15/15 had either one or two career starts

13/15 had placed on all their career starts

3:05 ASCOT Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f BBC1

HARDWICK STAKES – A race for 4 year olds and older over 1 mile and 4 furlongs.  We are looking for a runner aged 4,5 or 6 that finished in the 1st six last time out and is in the first six in the betting.  Also look closely at horses that ran at either Epsom or Chester last time out that ran in a group race and are trained by Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute or Aiden O’Brien

ODDS

14/15 priced at 12/1 or less

15/15 were in the 1st six of the betting market

FAVOURTIES

4 winning favourites for a loss of -£6.02

TRAINERS

Mark Johnston has had 4 winners from 12 runners and has had a further 3 placed but again no runners

Sir Michael Stoute has had 3 winners from 20 runners with a further 6 placed

Aiden O’Brien has had 2 winners from just 5 runners with another 1 placed

AGE

15/15 aged 4,5 or 6

WEIGHT

9/15 has been won by the top rated horse for a profit of +£18.53, 7 more have been placed too

LAST RACE

7 winners last raced at Epsom from 24 runners with another 7 placed

3 winners last raced at Chester from 14 runners with a further 3 placed

15/15 finished in the 1st six

15/15 ran in a Class 1 race

13/15 ran in a group race

8/15 ran in a group 1 race from 38 runners with a further 7 placed producing a win profit of +£18.91

13/15 raced within the last 45 days
OTHER RACE

15/15 finished in the 1st three in at least one of their last 3 races

14/15 had run within the last 90 days

There have been 28 runners who had won this Class of race before producing 6 winners (21%) for a profit of +£18.83 with a further  9 placed compared to those that of not of 93 runners producing 9 winners (9.6%)

3:45 ASCOT Diamond Jubilee Stakes (British Champions Series & Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f BBC1

DIAMOND JUBILEE – A Group 1, 6 furlong race.  Will Black Caviar follow Frankel’s lead and wow the Ascot crowd, the official figures say she should take this but she makes the market for some nice each way bets where we should be looking for a horse priced 14/1 to 40/1, aged 4 or 6, that has run within the last 90 days and has finished within the first 3 in at least 1 of it’s last 3 races.

ODDS

Plenty of big priced winners here so don’t be afraid to give them a shot, in fact backing every horse priced between 14/1 to 40/1 produces a +£46.00 profit with 7 winners from 124 runners, not many more placed so better off going for win only if you take this route

FAVOURITES

Just 2 winning favourites for a loss of -£2.00

TRAINER

Spread around a bit for winners though Richard Hannon has had 6 placed horses from 14 runners

AGE

15/15 aged 3 to 7.  4 yr olds and 6 yr olds faring best, 5 yr olds for some reason are poor with only 1 winner from 57 runners, compared to 4 yr olds 7/77 and 6 yr olds 4/40

LAST RACE

5 winners last raced at York from 47 runners with a further 4 placed

3 winners last raced at Ascot from 32 runners with a further 9 placed

OTHER FACTORS

Australian Bred horses have done well with 2 winners from 16 runners and a further 4 placed

15/15 had run within the last 90 days

13/15 had finished in the 1st 3 in at least 1 of their last 3 races

4:25 ASCOT Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f BBC1

WOKINGHAM – a 6 furlong handicap, 15 races covered but 16 winners as there was 1 dead heat.

We are looking for a horse aged 4 to 7, priced 20/1 or less preferably in the 1st 5 in the market, which is not top weight and is rated 87 to 106.  We don’t want to be drawn in the middle of the track (12-22) and the horse should have raced over at least 6 furlongs and finished in the first 6 last time out, having not raced at Windsor or Musselburgh.

ODDS

14/16 priced 20/1 or less

11/16 from the first 5 in the market
FAVOURITES

4 winning favourites for a profit of +£8.75
TRAINER

Dandy Nicholls send lots of runners to this race but has only had 1 winner from 45 runners and only 2 more placed

Hughie Morrison has had 3 placed horses from 7 runners with one winning

JOCKEYS

Johnny Murtagh has won the race 3 times from 10 runners with another one placed

Frankie Dettori has also had 10 rides, has won once and placed a further 3 times
AGE

16/16 aged 4 to 7

WEIGHT/OR

No top weight has so far won

16/16 rated 87 to 106
LAST RACE

16/16 last raced at Ascot, Chepstow, Epsom, Doncaster, Goodwood, Lingfield, Rowley mile Newmarket or York

Tracks to avoid are Windsor 0/34, Musselburgh 0/18

16/16 finished in the first 6 last time out

15/16 raced at 6 furlongs or further, only 1 winner last raced over 5 furlongs from 101 runners
OTHER FACTORS
16/16 had finished in the first 4 in at least 1 of their last 3 races

16/16 had run no more than 4 times in the last 90 days

16/16 had placed at least once over 6 furlongs

15/16 had no more than 25 career starts

DRAW

15/16 were either drawn 1 – 11 (10 winners) or 23 – 30 (5 winners) so you don’t really want to be in the middle

 

5:00 ASCOT Duke of Edinburgh Handicap Cl2 1m4f BBCi

DUKE OF EDINBURGH HANDICAP – 1 mile 4 furlong handicap.  We are looking for

Profile – aged 3,4 or 5, it should have won at least 2 races and finished in the 1st 4 in at least 1 of it’s last 4 runs

Last Race ran with in the last 60 days, in a Class 2,3 or 4 race and was priced preferably at 8/1 or less in it’s last race which was over a distance of 1 mile 4 furlongs or less.

Look closely at those trained by Johnston, Stoute & Morrison

Career -

ODDS

A full range of prices up to 28/1

FAVOURITES

Just the one winning favourite for a loss of -£10.00

TRAINER

Sir Michael Stoute has had 3 winners from 13 runners with a further 4 placed

Mark Johnston had 3 winners from 16 runners with 2 more placed

Hughie Morrison has had 2 winners from 2 runners

AGE

15/15 aged 3,4 or 5

No winners aged 6 or over from 51 runners
WEIGHT

No top weighted winner

15/15 carried between 8 stone 6 lb to 9st 9lb
LAST RACE

14/15 started at an SP of 8/1 or less last time out

14/15 raced in a Class 2, 3 or 4 race, the other winner was from Ireland

15/15 raced at a distance of 1 mile 4 furlongs or less

15/15 raced within the last 60 days

13/15 finished in the 1st 6

OTHER FACTORS

15/15 had finished in the first 4 in at least 1 of their last 3 starts

15/15 had won at least 2 races in their career

 

5:35 ASCOT Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) Cl2 2m5f159y BBC1

QUEEN ALEXANDRA – a race over 2 miles 5 ½ furlongs where we are looking for a horse aged 4 to 7, that have won at least 1 race in their careers who last raced within the last 45 days in a race that was preferably at Ascot, Chester, Sandown or York and is today priced at 12/1 or less

ODDS

14/15 priced 12/1 or less

FAVOURTIES

4 winning favourites for a loss of -£4.70

TRAINERS

Sir Michael Stoute has had 5 runners, all five have at least placed with 2 winning

AGE

14/15 aged 4 to 7, though 4 & 5 year olds old the edge with 5 wins each

LAST RACE

3 winners last raced at Ascot from 18 runners with a further 5 placed

3 winners last raced at Chester from 16 runners with a further 3 placed

3 winners last raced at York from 15 runners with a further 1 placed

2 winners last raced at Sandown from 18 runners with a further 6 placed

14/15 ran in a Class 1, 2 or 3 race

15/15 ran over a distance between 1 mile 5 ½ furlongs & 2 miles 4 furlongs

14/15 ran within the last 45 days

14/15 ran on the flat last time, only one winner from a horse that ran in a National Hunt race from 49 runners

OTHER FACTORS

15/15 had won at least 1 race in their careers

About Jonathan Burgess

Jonathan Burgess is an official Betfair Accredited Trainer and racing columnist for various respected betting industry publications such as: Betting School, The Daily Punt and Betfair's Education site. He also runs the Profitable - False Favourites Betting Tips Club Which cost just 24 pence a day. You can also connect with him on Facebook and Twitter

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Comments

2 Responses to “Trends, Statistics And Betting Angles For CH4 Races (Saturday 23.6.2012)”
  1. david scammell says:

    All your trend facts are fine but why not stick your neck out and suggest 2/3 named nags? By the time I have looked up the relevant data the races are over! Go on be brave.

    • Jonathan says:

      The trends are designed as a punters guide to lonterm racing statistics – for class 1, 2 or group races which are live Channel 4 TV every Saturday.

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